In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
Full disclosure, I’m a native Californian. While I don’t surf—like all but one of the Beach Boys—I do enjoy the sunshine and the cool air coming off the Pacific Ocean. Yes, one can get used to that sorta thing, and we do not like it when Mother Nature throws some real weather at us. Anyone attempting to drive in LA during a light rain will attest to that.
This brings me to the fantasy football subject matter of the day. Last month, our amigo Chris Allen looked at the impact of dome games on quarterbacks for the upcoming season. I wanted to pull another thread on that, adding a bit of a historical background to how domes or even good weather can lead quarterbacks to do special things.
In NFL history, there have been 15 seasons where quarterbacks have thrown for 5,000+ yards. In 10 of those seasons, the quarterback played primarily in a dome or had a home stadium in California or Florida. Drew Brees had five such seasons, and barely missed a sixth. After Tom Brady took his talents to Tampa Bay, he passed for 5,316 yards in 2021 at age 44.
Dan Marino was the first player to break the 5K barrier in his historic 1984 MVP season, hitting then jaw-dropping 5,084 yards and 48 TDs. The schedule makers and weather were his friends that year, as after Oct. 7 he played games in temperate weather in New England and at the Jets. All the other games were either in Miami, a dome, or San Diego. In his last 11 games he passed for 3,557 yards and 33 TDs, including 4 TDs in each of his last four games. See what happens when you don’t have to play in blizzards in the Northeast?
One other Hall of Famer, Peyton Manning, had some good fortune during his record-setting 49-TD season in 2004. After a Halloween game where he torched the Chiefs in K.C. for 472 yards and 5 TDs (temperature was a balmy 67 degrees), he had just one other non-dome game the rest of that season. In Chicago in late November, he threw another 4 TDs in 43-degree weather with no wind.
Yes, these may be extreme examples authored by some of the greatest players to ever take a snap from center, but they help tell the story that with pristine conditions quarterbacks can thrive at the most important time of the year—the fantasy playoffs. Below are four examples who could have league-winning upside because of the matchups and locations.👇
MEANWHILE, IF YOU DRAFT QB EARLY, HERE’S A GOOD CHOICE
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4 Quarterbacks With Prime Playoff Matchups
So many of us had fun in the pool this holiday weekend, soaking in the rays and enjoying the summer sun. It’s almost not fun thinking ahead to December, when weather could be cold, rainy, snowing, and worse, windy. The goal here is to help you avoid that, and these four QBs could be occasional starters or backups on draft day, but league-winners just before New Year’s Day.
Brock Purdy (QB11 / Pick 103.7)
So much has been made of the 49ers having the easiest schedule this season, and the fantasy playoffs see them hosting the Titans Week 15, followed by a trip to Indianapolis, and then hosting the Bears championship week. None of these defenses a scary, and let’s remember Purdy’s 377 yards and 4 total TDs in Week 17 against the Lions last season.
Michael Penix (QB21 / 145.2)
This is probably my favorite schedule other than Purdy’s, as the Falcons could be in three shootouts starting with a trip to Tampa Week 15. They then go to Arizona before returning home for a MNF clash with the Rams. All three games feature defenses ranked 15th and lower last season and could remind us of July 4th fireworks. Penix could be that QB2 on your roster you’re glad you picked up late in your draft.
J.J. McCarthy (QB18 / 127.5)
Thor Nystrom did not put me up to this. I promise. Weeks 15 and 17 the Vikings have indoor games against the Cowboys and Lions, respectively. Both could be of the carnival variety. A trip to New Jersey Week 16 to take on the Giants could see some weather, but that secondary could be had with McCarthy nearly completing his first season under center.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB22 / 150.4)
Let’s discount the Steelers matchup in Pittsburgh to open the playoffs. Let’s have some fun with the Bengals coming to Miami for MNF in Week 16, with the Buccaneers hitting South Florida a week later in a game that best ball drafters are already targeting. Just picture Baker Mayfield and Tua trading blows with both of their fleet WRs torching the secondaries. Tua did have five top-10 finishes last season.
THESE QBs ARE BARGAINS IN OUR RANKINGS
Add Bijan Robinson To The 1.01 Mix
When doing dozens of mock drafts over the coming weeks, a name toward the top of rankings deserves to be in consideration to be No. 1 overall: Bijan Robinson.
The Atlanta RB has more than lived up to the massive hype that has followed him to the NFL, amassing 3,350 scrimmage yards and 23 total TDs in his first two seasons to put him in some rarefied company. Watching him run, it’s almost like a superhero looking to smash the opposition and occasionally darting away from them and flying away from defenders. Check out Pete Overzet’s look at Bijan before clicking on that first pick in your draft.⤵️
Is Ashton Jeanty Going Too High?
We’ve heard so much hype for Ashton Jeanty, it would almost be surprising if he weren’t going in the discussion for the 1.01. Here we may be splashing more water on an ADP that has him going in the top 10. Why? Well, let’s remember this is a team that might be playing from behind, which doesn’t favor the running game. There’s more.
Ian Hartitz closes out his excellent Team Preview series with Raider Nation, where a new QB in Geno Smith, new coach in Pete Carroll, and a new WR in Jack Bech join Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers on a squad still fighting an uphill battle in the AFC West. 👇🏼
CAN WE EXPECT THE SAME FROM BOWERS?
Around the Watercooler
Just a few fun links on a Sunday.
🧨 Duuuuuvaaal is so pumped for this offense to pop.
💪 Ja’Marr Chase went from potential rookie bust to league winner? That Week 17 performance was … AMAZING.
🔮 ICYMI: Here are all 32 NFL Team Previews. Ian turned it into a great month to be great.
👀 Cam Ward could be what version of Jordan Love? So many possibilities.
😬 Isiah Pacheco is ready for a do-over.
🤔 A win for the Cheetah, but what is Pittsburgh doing?
