Michigan State football’s 2025 season is one that’s tough to predict.
The Spartans have a tough schedule, and their roster didn’t necessarily drastically improve.
CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli sees the best-case scenario for Michigan State being 9-3, a rather significant jump from last year.
“Aidan Chiles shows development, and while his accuracy continues to be a problem, his decision-making improves tremendously, leading to far fewer turnovers,” Fornelli wrote. “He also makes enough wow throws to fill social media with highlights. The Spartans knock off Michigan at home thanks to Chiles and a rapidly improving defense under Joe Rossi.
“A loss to Penn State in November ends the playoff dreams, but when Chiles announces he intends to return for 2026, the nation immediately begins hyping this program up as a 2026 dark horse.”
Nine wins for this team seems like quite the stretch, but is there a path to it like Fornelli envisions? Possibly. The Spartans would have to have success on the road and likely have to take down rising teams like USC and Nebraska.
Fornelli sees the worst-case scenario being the complete opposite, a 3-9 season.
“Aidan Chiles continues to make bad decisions that lead to turnovers and continuously put the Michigan State defense in bad positions,” Fornelli wrote. “An early loss to Boston College shakes the team’s confidence a bit, and it craters following consecutive road losses to USC and Nebraska.
“Things only get worse down the stretch, and Chiles is benched before hitting the portal following the season, leading to a lot of question marks about Jonathan Smith’s program heading into 2026.”
Given the long-time connection between Chiles, Smith and Jon Boyer, it’s hard to see the staff ever benching Chiles, regardless of his performance. And the options behind him are not ideal either.
The staff has worked with Chiles on the mistakes from last season, and it’s likely that he’s going to see improvement. Fans shouldn’t be concerned about him or the team taking a step backward from last season.
A six- or seven-win season seems more ideal for Michigan State. Anything short of that will be a failure.
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