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Big 12: Iowa State (10-2) vs. Arizona State (10-2), Noon ET (in Arlington)
Winner goes to the CFP, loser misses out. Arizona State has been a better team lately, but losing wide receiver Jordyn Tyson to an unspecified injury is a huge problem. His mid-year emergence was a key part of ASU’s surge. Behind running back Cam Skattebo, the next-best wideout has 291 receiving yards. I’d pick the Sun Devils if Tyson was healthy, but his absence shifts my pick to Iowa State.
Prediction: Iowa State 27, Arizona State 22
SEC: Georgia (10-2) vs. Texas (11-1), 4 p.m. ET (in Atlanta)
During the October game, the first-half drives after turnovers shaped the result. Georgia’s two giveaways led to zero Texas points, but UGA scored 17 points on three Texas turnovers. Georgia built a 23-0 halftime lead, and Texas couldn’t recover in a 30-15 loss. I expect a similar type of matchup—a real defensive slog—in which UGA takes advantage of a familiar environment and a key turnover to outlast an elite UT defense.
Prediction: Georgia 20, Texas 17
ACC: Clemson (9-3) vs. SMU (11-1), 8 p.m. ET (in Charlotte)
While the ACC stews over Alabama leaping Miami in the CFP rankings, Clemson has an opportunity to calm the league’s frustration. If the Tigers win, they and SMU should make the Playoff. SMU is favored, but Clemson’s ability to create turnovers—a plus-16 margin this season compared to SMU’s plus-two—can swing the game toward the Tigers.
Prediction: Clemson 24, SMU 20
Big Ten: Penn State (11-1) vs. Oregon (12-0), 8 p.m. ET (in Indianapolis)
Penn State’s defense is awesome. But the narratives exist for a reason. James Franklin holds a 1-13 record opposite top-five competition while at PSU, and Drew Allar has consistently been quiet in marquee games. No, that doesn’t mean Penn State cannot win. This defense is good enough to carry the team! I’m also unwilling to pick against these two clearly defined trends until Penn State proves it.
Prediction: Oregon 23, Penn State 16
