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College football bowl projections: For Alabama, Miami, will it be the CFP or an Orlando finale?


Only five days remain until the selection committee unveils the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff bracket and individual and contract bowls make their selections from the remaining eligible teams.

Tuesday night’s CFP rankings release is the most important — save for the final announcement — in the system’s 11-year history. Where the committee ranks Alabama and Miami tonight likely indicates where the teams will end up in the postseason. For Miami, it’s either the CFP or the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando, Fla. For Alabama, it’s either the CFP or probably the Citrus Bowl, which also is in Orlando. Considering neither team is playing in their conference championship game, any adjustments made on Sunday rightly will receive heavy scrutiny.

Exactly 82 teams became eligible for bowl games, which means there will be no 5-7 qualifiers. Among the most interesting bowl situations to watch is Michigan and Iowa. Although the Hawkeyes have a better record (8-4) and a fan base likely to travel well, the Wolverines (7-5) upset Ohio State and generate high television ratings. The ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa will choose between them, with the Music City Bowl likely to pick the other team.

Potential matchups to watch include ColoradoIowa State in the Alamo Bowl and BYU-Clemson in the Pop-Tarts Bowl (if the Cyclones lose the Big 12 title game and Miami qualifies for the CFP). The Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg, Fla., leads into the first CFP game on Friday, Dec. 20, so expect a matchup between well-known programs. We project Oklahoma-North Carolina.

Some bowls with early dates will announce their participants this week ahead of the full announcement on Sunday.

A friendly reminder: Most non-CFP bowls do not have to select teams in order of conference standings.

College Football Playoff

Bowl/Playoff Date Team Team Location Time (ET) Network

Playoff

Dec. 20

6. Penn State

11. Miami

State College, Pa.

8 p.m.

ABC/ESPN

Playoff

Dec. 21

5. Texas

12. Arizona St (Big 12 champ)

Austin, Texas

Noon

TNT

Playoff

Dec. 21

7. Notre Dame

10. Indiana

South Bend, Ind.

3:30 p.m.

TNT

Playoff

Dec. 21

8. Tennessee

9. Ohio State

Knoxville, Tenn.

8 p.m.

ABC/ESPN

Fiesta

Dec. 31

4. Boise State (G5 champ)

Texas/Arizona State winer

Glendale, Ariz.

7:30 p.m.

ESPN

Peach

Jan. 1

3. SMU (ACC champ)

Penn State/Miami winner

Atlanta

Noon

ESPN

Rose

Jan. 1

1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)

Tennessee/Ohio State winner

Pasadena, Calif.

5 p.m.

ESPN

Sugar

Jan. 1

2. Georgia (SEC champ)

Notre Dame/Indiana winner

New Orleans

8:45 p.m.

ESPN

Orange

Jan. 9

Quarterfinal winner

Quarterfinal winner

Miami, Fla.

7:30 p.m.

ESPN

Cotton

Jan. 10

Quarterfinal winner

Quarterfinal winner

Arlington, Texas

7:30 p.m.

ESPN

Championship

Jan. 20

Semifinal winner

Semifinal winner

Atlanta

7:30 p.m.

ESPN

Remaining bowls

Bowl Date Team Team Location Time (ET) Network

Bahamas

Jan. 4

Northern Illinois (MAC)

Jacksonville State (C-USA)

Nassau, Bahamas

11 a.m.

ESPN2

Duke’s Mayo

Jan. 3

Minnesota (Big Ten 6)

Virginia Tech (ACC 5-7)

Charlotte, N.C.

7:30 p.m.

ESPN

First Responder

Jan. 3

N.C. State (ESPN)

Arkansas (ESPN)

University Park, Texas

4 p.m.

ESPN

Gator

Jan. 2

Duke (ACC 2-4)

Florida (SEC 3-8)

Jacksonville, Fla.

7:30 p.m.

ESPN

Texas

Dec. 31

Baylor (Big 12 4)

Missouri (SEC 3-8)

Houston

3:30 p.m.

ESPN

Citrus

Dec. 31

Illinois (Big Ten 2)

Alabama (SEC 2)

Orlando, Fla.

3 p.m.

ABC

Sun

Dec. 31

Louisville (ACC 5-7)

Washington (Pac-12 5)

El Paso, Texas

2 p.m.

CBS

ReliaQuest

Dec. 31

Michigan (Big Ten 3)

South Carolina (SEC 3-8)

Tampa, Fla.

Noon

ESPN

Music City

Dec. 30

Iowa (Big Ten 4)

Ole Miss (SEC 3-8)

Nashville, Tenn.

2:30 p.m.

ABC

Independence

Dec. 28

Memphis (AAC)

West Virginia* (Pac-12 7)

Shreveport, La.

9:15 p.m.

ESPN

Alamo

Dec. 28

Iowa State (Big 12 2)

Colorado (Pac-12 2)

San Antonio, Texas

9:15 p.m.

ABC

Military

Dec. 28

Army (AAC 2)

Georgia Tech (ACC 8-10)

Annapolis, Md.

5:45 p.m.

ESPN

Arizona

Dec. 30

Colorado State (MWC)

Miami of Ohio (MAC)

Tucson, Ariz.

4:30 p.m.

CW

Pop-Tarts

Dec. 28

BYU (Big 12 3)

Clemson (ACC 2-4)

Orlando, Fla.

3:30 p.m.

ABC

New Mexico

Dec. 28

Ohio (MWC)*

UTSA (ESPN)

Albuquerque, N.M.

2:15 p.m.

ESPN

Pinstripe

Dec. 28

Nebraska (Big Ten 5)

Boston College (ACC 5-7)

Bronx, N.Y.

Noon

ABC

Fenway

Dec. 28

Pittsburgh (ACC 8-10)

UConn (ESPN)

Boston

11 a.m.

ESPN

Vegas

Dec. 27

USC (Pac-12 4)

Texas A&M (SEC 3-8)

Las Vegas, Nev.

10:30 p.m.

ESPN

Holiday

Dec. 27

Syracuse (ACC 2-4)

Washington State (Pac-12 3)

San Diego, Calif.

8 p.m.

FOX

Liberty

Dec. 27

Kansas State (Big 12 5)

LSU (SEC 3-8)

Memphis, Tenn.

7 p.m.

ESPN

Birmingham

Dec. 27

Vanderbilt (SEC 9)

Tulane (ESPN)

Birmingham, Ala.

12/3:30 p.m.

ESPN

Armed Forces

Dec. 27

TCU (Big 12 7)

Navy (ESPN)

Fort Worth, Texas

12/3:30 p.m.

ESPN

68 Ventures

Dec. 26

Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)

Western Kentucky (C-USA)

Mobile, Ala.

9 p.m.

ESPN

Rate

Dec. 26

Rutgers (Big Ten 7)

Texas Tech (Big 12 6)

Phoenix, Ariz.

5:45 p.m.

ESPN

GameAbove

Dec. 26

Arkansas State (Big Ten 8)*

Toledo (MAC)

Detroit

2 p.m.

ESPN

Hawaii

Dec. 24

Fresno State (MWC)

Liberty (C-USA)

Honolulu, Hawaii

8 p.m.

ESPN

Idaho Potato

Dec. 23

San Jose State (MWC)

Buffalo (MAC)

Boise, Idaho

2:30 p.m.

ESPN

Myrtle Beach

Dec. 23

Coastal Carolina (ESPN)

East Carolina (ESPN)

Myrtle Beach, S.C.

11 a.m.

ESPN

Gasparilla

Dec. 20

North Carolina (ACC 8-10)

Oklahoma (ESPN)

Tampa, Fla.

3:30 p.m.

ESPN

Cure

Dec. 20

USF (ESPN)

Marshall (ESPN)

Orlando, Fla.

Noon

ESPN

New Orleans

Dec. 19

Louisiana (Sun Belt)

Sam Houston (C-USA)

New Orleans

7 p.m.

ESPN2

LA Bowl

Dec. 18

California (Pac-12 6)

UNLV (MWC 1)

Inglewood, Calif.

9 p.m.

ABC

Boca Raton

Dec. 18

Bowling Green (ESPN)

James Madison (ESPN)

Boca Raton, Fla.

5:30 p.m.

ESPN

Frisco

Dec. 17

Texas State (ESPN)

North Texas (ESPN)

Frisco, Texas

9 p.m.

ESPN

Camellia

Dec. 14

South Alabama (ESPN)

Western Michigan (ESPN)

Montgomery, Ala.

9 p.m.

ESPN

Notes: (ESPN) indicates an ESPN Events bowl. Teams can be moved between them. An asterisk (*) indicates a replacement team because a league was not able to fill all of its slots.

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic, Photos: Don Juan Moore / Getty)

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