The 2024 college football regular season is over, and we’ve made it to conference championship weekend. That means a handful of intriguing matchups with College Football Playoff implications, including Penn State-Oregon in the Big Ten and Texas-Georgia in the SEC.
Let’s make some picks.
Last week, we weren’t terrible, going 2-3 against the spread on our big board picks. Two late pick-sixes doomed the USC cover, which was looking good all game. We did hit our best bet and did so comfortably as Indiana throttled Purdue in a bounce-back spot.
Through eight weeks, we’re 29-34-1 on our normal picks ATS and 2-3 on best bets. Some work left to do to get above .500 on the season.
Here are my picks for conference championship weekend. As always, tail (or fade) responsibly.
(All odds as of Thursday afternoon, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)
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No. 20 UNLV at No. 10 Boise State (-4)
Friday, 8 p.m., FOX
This is a CFP win-and-in game for the Mountain West challengers. UNLV hung with Boise in a 29-24 loss in October at Allegiant Stadium and held Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty to 128 yards on 33 carries (3.9 yards per attempt), his lowest totals of the year. This will be played on the blue turf in Boise. But I think NFL-ready wide receiver (and special teams ace) Ricky White III does enough to give the Rebels a shot at the upset. The pick: UNLV +4
No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State (-2.5)
Saturday, noon, ABC (at AT&T Stadium)
I’m staying away from picking the spread. It’s the Big 12, the most chaotic conference in college football. Without a strong sense of who will win — though I lean Arizona State — I’d rather play the total. The Sun Devils rank fourth among power conference teams in rushing attempts per game; their offense goes through Cam Skattebo. Iowa State has a lockdown secondary but porous rush defense. That clock is going to run. The pick: Under 49.5
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (-2.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Georgia won the first meeting, beating Texas, 30-15, in Austin in October. The Dawgs capitalized on four Longhorn turnovers. I don’t see that happening again. I expect Steve Sarkisian to learn from that loss and come up with a better game plan. I also expect Texas’ defensive front to cause Georgia problems. The pick: Texas -2.5
No. 17 Clemson vs. No. 8 SMU (-2.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC (at Bank of America Stadium)
I respect SMU, and I think the Mustangs deserve to make the CFP even if they lose. But I fear we’re in for a chaotic Selection Sunday filled with SEC hypotheticals. Dabo Swinney is 8-1 in ACC championship games, and his only loss was in his first year on the job. Value-wise, I don’t mind Clemson outright. But I’ll take the points here. The pick: Clemson +2.5
No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (-3.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m., CBS (at Lucas Oil Stadium)
My game prediction was Oregon beating Penn State, 31-24. I certainly think the Nittany Lions can pull it off. But the talent gap at wide receiver — as well as James Franklin’s record in big games — gives me pause against the No. 1 team in the country. The pick: Oregon -3.5
BEST BET
Tulane (-5.5) at No. 24 Army
Friday, 8 p.m., ABC
Army has been an awesome story, but Tulane is positioned to take care of business in its third straight AAC title game. Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall has had success against Army, holding the triple-option to nine total points while coaching Troy to wins in 2022 and 2023. Couple that with Tulane’s explosive offense (39.1 points per game, sixth in the FBS) and I think it’s all Green Wave. The pick: Tulane -5.5
