Tennessee football’s chances of hosting a College Football Playoff game took a big hit on Tuesday night when the Vols came in ranked No. 7 and behind Ohio State in the polls.
If the Vols cannot leapfrog one of the teams ahead of them, then they will be going on the road for their first-round matchup. There are some teams ahead of Tennessee who will not be playing this weekend, therefore making it impossible for Tennessee to jump over them. Ohio State and Notre Dame will not be playing, but every other team ranked ahead of Tennessee will be.
It seems logical that if one of those teams loses, they could drop below Tennessee in the rankings and open up a place for the Vols to host a first-round matchup. However, there is uncertainty about how the College Football Playoff selection committee will treat a team that loses in its conference championship. Logic says that those teams would have to drop in the rankings after a loss, but they would also essentially be punished for playing an extra game that teams like Tennessee, Ohio State, and Notre Dame did not play.
The only two conference championship games that will affect Tennessee’s ranking are the Big Ten Championship and the SEC Championship. Here is a look at all of the possible outcomes of these games and how that could affect Tennessee’s placement in the playoff bracket.
Texas beats Georgia and Oregon beats Penn State
Texas and Oregon are both slight favorites in their respective conference championships this weekend. If Georgia were to lose to the Longhorns, they would have three losses on the season. They are currently No. 5 in the rankings, while Tennessee sits at No. 7.
Throughout most of this season, teams that lose games have been dropped much further than two spots, but the committee might make an exception for conference championship weekend. It seems unlikely at this point that the committee would drop Georgia below Tennessee for losing to Texas. The Bulldogs also already beat the Longhorns once this season and defeated Tennessee as well. However, there is always a chance that a third loss could mean that the Bulldogs are dropped below the Vols, who only have two losses.
If Penn State loses to Oregon, there is a better chance that they would drop below Tennessee. The Nittany Lions would have two losses if they lose to the Ducks and would also not have any wins that are as impressive as Tennessee’s victory over Alabama. Tennessee fans should root for Oregon to blow out Penn State for Tennessee’s best chance at securing a home playoff game.
Georgia beats Texas and Penn State beats Oregon
Tennessee’s chances of jumping over Texas or Oregon feel very slim. The Ducks are the only undefeated team left in the country and have been the undisputed best team in the country ever since they beat Ohio State early in the year. They will fall no lower than the No. 5 seed if they lose to Penn State.
Texas is also not likely to fall behind Tennessee despite their resume lacking many signature wins. The Longhorns’ best victory is on the road at Texas A&M, a team who is no longer ranked. Their other best wins are against Vanderbilt and Michigan, two teams that barely qualified for bowl games. Even though Tennessee has a better resume than Texas if the Longhorns lose this weekend, the committee’s perception of Texas is likely too strong for them to drop them behind Tennessee. The Vols’ only hope to jump over Texas would be a Georgia blowout victory.
Summary
Tennessee fans need to root for blowouts this weekend in the Big Ten and SEC Championship games. If one of these teams loses by a large enough margin it could cause the committee’s opinion of them to change.
At this point, all these scenarios are pure speculation. These are still uncharted waters since there has never been a 12-team playoff before now. It is impossible to know what to expect until we see it for the first time.
