The 2025 NFL season is getting closer with every week. Now that we’ve hit July, it’s time to get those mental reps in and test out some draft strategies. Yep, that’s right; it’s mock draft season.
If you’re looking for current player trends, perhaps the results of this exercise will help. I recently assembled a group of 12 fantasy football analysts, including myself, and conducted a 10-round mock draft. Together, let’s break down the results of this 1-QB, PPR mock:
(All stats per FTN’s NFL StatsHub unless otherwise noted)
The Drafters
- Smokey-Hell Nelson – The Smoke Show (@thesmokeshow.bsky.social)
- Tyler Orginski – FTN Fantasy (@FFTylerO)
- Dustin Keith – (@OmegaKing1414)
- Mike Faiella – Dynasty League Football (@DaddysHomeFF)
- A Nerd Named Andrew – DLF (@fakefootballs.bsky.social)
- Lou Brunson – Optimus Fantasy (@brewpython27.bsky.social)
- Stephen Hoopes – 4for4 (@stephenhoopes.bsky.social)
- C.H. Herms – FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Points (@herms.bsky.social)
- Brian Ford – Going For 2, Dynasty Fever (@FFjunkie_)
- Bryan Rockwood – Fantrax, FantasyNow+ (@brocktalksff.bsky.social)
- Andrew Cooper – Fantasy Alarm (@CoopAFiasco)
- Tommy B – Co-Host of Superflex Supershow (@fftommyb.bsky.social)
My Squad and Draft Perspectives
Though I didn’t intentionally set out to have this particular build, waiting on running back seemed to be the wisest approach based on how the board fell.
Usually, it’s preferable to have a proven difference-maker at the position (i.e., Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry) to anchor my lineup. In a world where there’s no swing taken on Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride at the 2.05, that sort of build would’ve been a reality. But when last season’s RB12 in PPR points per game is available to you in the early fourth round, those early decisions start to look a little better.
Is it the contract situation that’s stopping people from being more interested in James Cook? Perhaps nervousness around touchdown regression? If it’s more of the latter, I’d understand — replicating 16 ground scores is a challenge for any running back.
Still, unless we’re to believe second-year back Ray Davis suddenly becomes a massive threat, fantasy managers are letting a starter on one of the league’s most potent offenses slip more than he probably should. This isn’t any sort of declaration that Cook is some egregious afterthought, but if he’s going to be around in the middle of the fourth frequently, then he’s going to end up on plenty of my rosters this season.
If there’s one pick I’d love to “re-do” in this exercise, I’d have opted against selecting Courtland Sutton at the 5.08. Knowing I’d be able to land Jaylen Waddle a round later, now free from the potential threat of Jonnu Smith taking away targets in Miami, certainly would’ve spurred some different decisions.
As my co-host Tyler Orginski and I recently discussed on the Crossing Routes Podcast, the Dolphins’ target share is going to be so consolidated between Waddle, Tyreek Hill and running back De’Von Achane that there’s almost no reason not to be stoked for any of them at cost. Of course, Waddle being the cheapest makes him the most appealing, and I’m happy to have been lucky enough to get him about a half-round later than his current ADP cost.
Overall, I’d say that my goal of assembling high-volume pass-catchers and attempting to acquire running back value to supplement was achieved. Sure, picking between Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Jaylen Warren as my RB2 every week isn’t the most ideal circumstance in the world, but those choices don’t hurt as much when you’ve got Puka Nacua, Terry McLaurin and the best tight end in football not named Brock Bowers in tow.
Noteworthy Picks by Fellow Analysts
As this mock unfolded, a couple of intriguing picks were made by the other managers who deserve further highlighting and exploration.
The first one that jumped out to me came at 2.12 with the selection of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson by Smokey-Hell Nelson. Though the move is well within line of Jackson’s current ADP of 3.01, it’s not common to see quarterbacks jump off the board this quickly in a 1-QB format among industry folks. That said, further explanation from Nelson about the pick illustrates a wise point.
“For me, in a fairly standard roster format such as this, I like to balance my early picks without doubling on a position, with guys that have as close to No. 1 overall contention at their respective positions,” shared Nelson.
Particularly considering that he’s selecting at the turn throughout the entire draft, the logic is certainly appreciated. Managers at the bookends of drafts owe it to themselves to be as methodical with their choices as possible, chasing the best upside available while having to wait considerably long intervals between picks.
The other pick that stands out from this exercise came from Stephen Hoopes with the selection of San Francisco 49ers wideout Jauan Jennings at 6.06. When asked what made the pick so inspiring, Hoopes provided an excellent set of stats that builds a fairly solid case.
Among all receivers to play at least eight games in 2024, Hoopes points out that “Jennings was 14th in PFF pass route grade, 15th in yards per route run and 12th in targets per route run. Brandon Aiyuk is almost certainly starting the season on PUP. Deebo Samuel is gone. Ricky Pearsall has 1.5 more useful NFL games than I do. Why is Jennings the WR34 in ADP again?”
Short, sweet and to the point. Hoopes is right to point out that the environment in San Francisco is pretty conducive to Jennings repeating his successes from 2024, a season in which he finished as the WR25 in PPR points per game (14.0). If there’s one slight criticism of the move, it would be that current ADP suggests the veteran would be acquirable at 11.06 on average, making the cost invested in Jennings a bit of an overpay in our context.
But when you sit back and think about it, is there such a thing as a “reach” if the research you’ve put together suggests there’s a sizable discrepancy between a player’s true value and ADP? If anything, Hoopes’ bold move reminds fantasy managers that if you’ve got conviction about a particular player and the numbers to back it up, go out there and shoot your shot.
Key Lessons and Closing Thoughts
Ultimately, this exercise proved fruitful and left me with a handful of lessons to keep in mind as the summer unfolds. Chief among them? It’s critical to be able to adapt your draft plan. I’ll admit that while I technically pulled off my team build, my insistence on passing up running backs caused me to miss out on both David Montgomery and Quinshon Judkins (just to name a couple) at a critical point in the draft. My overall roster would be considerably stronger in a world where that Sutton pick was spent better relative to my team’s needs. It just goes to show that even the analysts need to get their mock reps in, too.
