Fantasy Football 2025 First Pick Pros and Cons—Bijan Robinson

I’m not a Bijan Robinson truther. And it’s personal.

Let me explain.

When Robinson was a rookie, I listened to a zillion or so fantasy football pundits who were like, “Pay attention, people! Bijan is a top-five RB! Maybe even RB3! Maybe even RB2!!!!”

He finished RB9. And I drafted him in the second round. Over Joe Mixon. Who was RB5. And likely would’ve won me my league.

So yeah, it’s personal.

That said, the third-year man out of Texas is an undeniable beast: He quietly finished last season as the league’s RB4—racking up a whopping 25 more fantasy points more than the next man on the list, Josh Jacobs—almost dragging a blah Atlanta Falcons squad to the postseason.

As of this writing, Fantasy Pros has Robinson’s ADP at 1.0, telling us that the early fantasy drafters of the world are very much Bijan truthers. But is the shifty, multi-tooled 23-year-old worthy of the top spot?

Maybe yes, maybe no.

How did the aforementioned pundits convince me to overvalue rookie Robinson back in ‘23? Because they all said he had sticky hands—and, admittedly, he does, having grabbed a combined 119 receptions in 2023-24, making him the third-most productive PPR back in the league, behind just Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Being that McCaffrey is an injury waiting to happen, and Gibbs is in an offense that might not look as slick as it did over the previous two seasons when former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was at the helm, Robinson might be the best bet for the top spot if you’re in the mood for receptions.

In his five rookie season outings, the Falcons signal caller was, oh, for lack of a better word, let’s go with whatevs.

His completion percentage was 58.1%, 50th in the league, and his 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is more than a little concerning.

If a PPR monster is catching balls from a wobbly, inexperienced quarterback, should that sink him down a few draft spots?

Damn good question.

If you thought 2023 Bijan and 2024 Bijan were game-script gold, meet Mr. Robinson, 2025.

Taking Penix’s wobbliness into account—and considering that Atlanta’s receiving corps of Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts ain’t exactly Jerry Rice, John Taylor, and Dwight Clark—Robinson could rack up the most targets of his career, almost definitely more than 2024’s total of 78.

Dump-off catches may not be sexy, but a reception point is a reception point.

As noted, the Falcons’ pass-catching trio ain’t Rice, Tayor, and Clark, but they still have game, finishing eighth in the league in combined WR1/WR2/TE1 fantasy points—and that was with a late-season quarterback switch from a reliable veteran (Kirk Cousins) to a rookie (Penix).

In 2024, Penix didn’t get enough game reps to develop a true mind-meld with his receivers, but with a full training camp under his belt—and with Kirk Cousins slotted as the undisputed QB2—the University of Washington product will be on the same page with London et al from the jump, potentially cutting into Robinson’s opportunities both as a rusher and a receiver.

After several wide-receiver-centric seasons in fantasyland, the pendulum is (sort of) swinging  towards the running back position. The top-five backs are so dang good—Robinson, McCaffrey, Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Ashton Jeanty—that it boils down to personal preference.

Robinson is an undeniable stud, but he burned me once, and I won’t let it happen again.

Because it’s personal.