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Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 18: Oneil Cruz among best bets for Friday HR player props


The 2025 MLB season resumes on Friday after seeing essentially two different Home Run Derby contests over the 2025 MLB All-Star festivities. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh won the official 2025 Home Run Derby, but Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber outstaged him by going 3-for-3 with home runs in the swing-off to decide the winner of the 2025 All-Star Game. Both Raleigh and Schwarber will likely be popular home run prop picks onĀ betting sitesĀ on Friday, but our projections see better value elsewhere for Friday MLB player prop bets.

Both Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz and Rays third baseman Junior Caminero participated in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, with Caminero finishing second to Raleigh. We expect both of them to display their power yet again on Friday as top MLB home run picks for online sports betting. Cruz, who faces the White Sox, is listed at +425 odds on DraftKings and Caminero, who faces the Orioles, has +425 odds on BetMGM, and the latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at variousĀ sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB home run picks.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 46.65 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after hitting all three of its picks on July 9, with a three-leg parlay paying +12963. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday.Ā You can find even more picks in their daily blog. You can also see who the model likes in the Yankees vs. Braves on Friday night.

Best MLB home run picks for Friday, July 18:

  • Junior Caminero, Rays (+425)
  • Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+425)
  • Gunnar Henderson, Orioles, (+450)
  • Parlay these picks for +13681 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Junior Caminero, Rays (+425)

Caminero showcased his power in the 2025 Home Run Derby with 21 home runs in the first round, tied for the most of anyone in the field. He advanced to the finals before losing to Raleigh, who leads the MLB with 38 home runs. The Tampa Bay third baseman had a home run in two of his final five games before the All-Star Break and enters what should be a strong matchup for the 22-year-old, who is tied for 10th in baseball with 23 home runs.

“He returns to his home ballpark, where he absolutely mashes,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “He’s hitting .316 with a .954 OPS at home this season, compared to just a .177 average and .607 OPS on the road. Orioles’ starter Charlie Morton has allowed opponents to hit .290 against him when pitching on the road.” BetMGM is offering the best odds at +425, while other sportsbooks have him as low as +350, and you can play the latest BetMGM promo code with bonus money back if he doesn’t go deep here.

Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+425)

Cruz was tied with Caminero with 21 home runs in the opening round of the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby as the 6-foot-7 shortstop displayed his incredible power on a grand stage as well. His 513-foot home run was one of the most viral moments from the MLB All-Star festivities, and he had the best exit velocity in the 2025 Home Run Derby field. He also has the best exit velocity in baseball (96.3 mph), barrel percentage and bat speed, leading to ample home run opportunities. Fetner also likes his matchup for Friday.

He’s hit 15 of his 16 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers, and he’s facing one in Jonathan Cannon, who has struggled against left-handed batters,” Fetner said. “Lefties have an .844 OPS against Cannon, who’s also been more prone to giving up home runs on the road than at home.” DraftKings is offering the best odds at +425, and the latest DraftKings promo code gives new users $150 in bonus bets instantly after their first $5 bet.

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+450)

Henderson has just 11 home runs in 88 games this season after hitting 37 homers in 159 games last year, but Fetner expects the All-Star Break to aid Henderson on Friday. The 24-year-old shortstop had three extra-base hits over his last four games before the All-Star Break, showing signs of returning to his 2024 All-Star form. The Orioles face the Rays, who are starting Taj Bradley, and Henderson is 7-for-17 (.412) with a home run against the right-handed pitcher over his career.

“While Henderson is having a bit of a down year compared to last season, he’s still hitting .311 with a .909 OPS against right-handed pitchers,” Fetner said. He’s also hit nine home runs in just 33 career games against the Rays. Bradley has struggled at home this season, which makes sense given he’s pitching in a minor league park.” Henderson has +450 odds at FanDuel, and the latest FanDuel promo code gives new users $150 in bonus bets if their first $5 bet wins.

Where to bet MLB props on Friday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:

More MLB picks for Friday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now,Ā get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 183-110 roll (+1028.75) on MLB picks.Ā 



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