MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
Miami has the fourth lowest strikeout rate against southpaws this season, though the Marlins are also in the bottom-third of the league with an 83 wRC+, indicating that they are creating runs 17% less efficiently than league average. The team also has at .112 ISO versus lefties, which is the third lowest in the league.
Across 18 starts this season, LHP Kris Bubic had maintained a 9.36 strikeouts per nine innings rate, with a scant 0.5 home runs per nine. This has helped him compile a 2.48 ERA, supported by his 3.08 xERA, 2.75 FIP and 3.40 xFIP. The first-time All-Star did scuffle a bit heading into the break, allowing multiple runs in each of his last six starts. To be fair, this stretch included games against the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, as well as a start in Arizona, with these squads making up three of the four highest run producing offenses in the league this season.
The main concerns today for Bubic will be mitigating the power of Agustin Ramirez, Eric Wagaman and Dane Myers, who each hold the platoon advantage and have been solid producers this season. While the projected lineup has a collective 16.3% strikeout rate against southpaws this year, outside of the highlighted trio, no other hitter has a .100 ISO against lefties. Anything less than a quality start and a handful of strikeouts will be considered a disappointment for Bubic.
Ace LHP Garrett Crochet is in Chicago taking on a tough Cubs lineup, though he does have the highest median fantasy point projection. In Philadelphia, LHP Ranger Suarez is facing a mostly right-handed lineup from Anaheim, though the Angels do offer up five hitters who are striking out at an above league average rate over the last season and change.
On Yahoo, LHP Robbie Ray is in the 12:05 p.m. game in Toronto, against the Blue Jays, so do not overlook him as an option on the secret site, along with bucks deluxe LHP Tarik Skubal, in Texas against the Rangers on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. In Washington, LHP MacKenzie Gore is taking on his old team, with RHP Nick Pivetta toeing the rubber for the San Diego Padres. It is going to be a hot one in Nationals Park, but these pitchers should still be on the short list for tournaments.
It is going to be relatively cool in the Pacific Northwest, with game-time temperatures in the upper 60s for this 1 o’clock local start. The back of the ‘Stros lineup is thinned out with injuries to Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers and Jeremy Pena, plus Isaac Paredes was forced from the game last night with a hamstring issue, which could end up with him being placed on the injured list.
Brown has a strong personal history against the current M’s roster, with the team combining for a .202/.272/.288 triple-slash line, with only nine doubles and nine walks in 104 at-bats while striking out 35 times.
For Brown to succeed, he is going to need to mitigate lefties Cal Raliegh, Jorge Polanco, Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone, though there is a reason he is in the chase group for the American League Cy Young Award, trailing only Crochet and Skubal.
In tournaments, RHP Merrill Kelly is in play as a differentiation option, at home against St. Louis. The Chase Field roof will be closed, which does help pitchers as it enables the humidor to be effective with the baseballs.
Kelly is now in his age-36 season, having not made his MLB debut until he was a 30-year-old, back in 2019 after four seasons in the KBO, having washed out of the Tampa Bay organization after five seasons in the minors, preceded by three more during two college stops.
He continues to be a better “real life” pitcher, than a DFS target, though when the matchup is right, he is worthy of our attention. Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar are both out with injuries, which has thinned out the Cardinals. The Redbirds are better suited to face southpaws, with only lefties Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson, along with well-rounded Willson Contreras being the only above average bats against right-handed hurlers.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
For DraftKings, we can look to the matchup in Atlanta, where the Braves are hosting the New York Yankees. Temperatures will be in the low 90s with elevated humidity in the 60% to 70% range and an 8 to 12 mph breeze out to left field. RHP Marcus Stroman will be on the mound for New York, with the journeyman’s best days well behind him. He has managed only 24.1 frames across six starts, with career-worst marks of 5.55 strikeouts, 4.44 walks and 1.48 home runs per nine innings, leading to a 6.66 ERA, with a terrible 5.62 xERA, 5.60 FIP and 5.05 xFIP.
Yesterday on Stokastic’s MLB Live Before Lock, I said some less than flattering things about the lack of power for Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, so, of course, each hit a home run. The back of the order is still not worth our attention on the large slate, but it is still funny to have spoken those home runs into existence.
The focus for Atlanta stacks should be Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jurickson Profar, along with Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, who have been getting time behind the plate and as the designated hitter, with Austin Riley on the injured list and Marcell Ozuna appropriately benched against right-handed hurlers.
Last night, New York used five relievers and Atlanta six in a wild 12-9 comeback win for the Bronx Bombers. The Braves three best arms, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson and closer Raisel Iglesias also worked on Friday, leaving recently acquired swingman Dane Dunning as the only arm to not see action in the last two days. Scott Effross is the only New York reliever to see action on consecutive days, with everyone else getting in the mix once in the last 48 hours. Coming off the All-Star Break, these bullpens will have enough gumption to send out capable relievers, but it is still worth noting the usage.
It will be RHP Grant Holmes starting for Atlanta, with the MiLB lifer ceding five runs in three innings in his final start before the break. He has found DFS success against weaker teams, but this matchup is going to be a true test for his mettle. Anthony Volpe is coming off a two-home run game, but he and gloveman Jorbit Vivas can be skipped for stacking purposes. Cody Bellinger has been on a heater over the last month, crushing his eighth round-tripper in his last 104 plate appearances, which includes six doubles and a .373/.385/.667 triple-slash line, befitting of a former MVP.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. didn’t care much about the Home Run Derby, but he does mash in lefty-righty matchups when it counts, with Ben Rice and Jasson Dominguez being slightly off the radar options. Aaron Judge is the crown jewel of Yankees stacks, though do not lose sight of Trent Grisham, particularly if he is back at the top of the order.
Late Slate Contrarian Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
In Arizona, RHP Miles Mikolas has the unenviable task of taking on the Diamondbacks, who may have Ketel Marte (personal) back in the lineup. On July 4th, Mikolas provided a fireworks show in Wrigley Field, allowing six, yes SIX home runs against the Cubs. In his next start, he shut out the Washington Nationals for 5.2 innings, with today’s median outcome falling somewhere in between those performances.
Mikolas has been around for almost the entire DFS run, having debuted with San Diego back in the 2012 season. He washed out of the league in 2014 after a dreadful 57.1 innings for the Texas Rangers, spending the next three seasons in Japan before St. Louis took a chance on him in 2018, when he made the first of two All-Star appearances. The main “superpower” for Mikolas is taking the ball every five or six days, with at least 32 starts in each of his last five healthy seasons. Twice in his career he led the league for most hits allowed and in 2023, he led the National League with a whopping 107 earned runs, nearly reaching that mark again with 102 last year.
It is hard to see Mikolas finding success this afternoon, outside of baseball being baseball, which makes the Diamondbacks wildly appealing. Look to the usual suspects with Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez and Geraldo Perdomo all viable stacking pieces. If Marte remains away from the team, Adrian Del Castillo will be a fine discount dandy.
