Did SEC football programs learn how to schedule from last season’s CFB Playoff Selection Committee? Though few games are added less than a year out, appearances are that some SEC teams believe scheduling as many cupcakes as possible is the way to go.
Recently, On3’s Pete Nakos picked 11 teams with the weakest out-of-conference (OOC) schedules in the 2025 season. Six of the 11 are SEC football teams. One of the six, Vanderbilt, gets a pass. Thanks to the Commodores’ SEC schedule, ESPN Analytics ranks Vanderbilt as having the nation’s second-toughest 12-game schedule. Another SEC team, Georgia, is rated as the 8th-toughest FBS schedule, with Alabama and Texas playing in Athens. Nakos included Auburn in the weakest OOC schedules, but with the Tigers not being a legit playoff contender, the weakness is not material.
Three of the other SEC teams are playoff contenders. For each of the three a big reason why is their out-of-conference schedule.
The three SEC football teams hoping to cakewalk to a Playoff at-large bid are Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Missouri. The three fanbases will loudly contend their teams are SEC championship contenders. But ESPN gives the Vols a 4.2% probability of winning the SEC. Ole Miss is at 2.8% and Missouri is at 0.6%. The realistic playoff goal for each team is a 10-2 or 9-3 season. None of them can afford to lose an out-of-conference game.
Using an Athlon ranking of the 136 FBS teams, Missouri has a greater risk than the Vols or the Rebels to lose an out-of-conference game. In Week 2, Missouri hosts a home game against No. 35-ranked Kansas. The Tigers open with FCS, Central Arkansas, and have two more catwalk games against No. 92 Louisiana and No. 135 UMass.
Tennessee opens with No. 57 Syracuse, in Atlanta, in what is almost a home game for the Vols. In addition, Tennessee plays FCS, East Tennessee State, No. 125 UAB, and No. 132 New Mexico State.
Four games into the Ole Miss season, Tulane (No. 48) plays the Rebels in Oxford. Ole Miss also plays FCS, The Citadel, No. 97 Washington State, and No. 112 Georgia State.
Ole Miss and Missouri have no road, out-of-conference games. Tennessee can’t claim one either.
SEC Football requires at least one non-SEC Power Opponent
For the record, Alabama Football also has two cupcakes: FCS Eastern Illinois and No. 116 ULM. But, the Crimson Tide plays two non-SEC Power teams in FSU (No. 42) and Wisconsin (No. 45), with the FSU game in Tallahassee.
