Congratulations! If you’re reading this, you still have something to play for. That, or you have an odd way of coping.
Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) remains one of the most insightful metrics for understanding player opportunity. It tells us who’s running routes and who’s earning looks when they’re out there. As a refresher, Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.
Week 14 Reactions
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was a hot waiver name in Week 14 but was only targeted twice on 31 routes. Instead, the targets swung back in a big way for Calvin Ridley (35.5%TPRR). The Titans take on the Bengals next, so someone is likely to cash in with more pass attempts. It isn’t easy to know what Will Levis and Co. will look like in a given week, but I’d rather bet on the more talented Ridley if I had to choose between them.
Amari Cooper tops the list for Week 14 after being targeted on over half of his routes. Cooper’s snap share was only 53% in the shootout with L.A., suggesting that he’s not completely up to speed with either his recovery or the Bills’ offense (or both). Khalil Shakir (21% TPRR) outshone Cooper in the box score again and doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, but the Bills head to Detroit for another high-profile matchup in Week 15. It seems like a great spot for Amari Cooper to nab his first touchdown reception from Josh Allen.
Listen, nobody wants their fantasy season to rely on the Carolina Panthers. I get it. However, it has to be mentioned that 34-year-old Adam Thielen has a 25% TPRR since returning from a hamstring injury. Xavier Legette just missed out on a game-winning touchdown reception in Week 14, but the rookie has a sub-20% TPRR in the same span. If I had to pick, I’d trust the volume I’m seeing from the ageless one.
Data: pff.com
Playoff Outlook
Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL in passing touchdowns (24) and first in receptions over 40 yards (13). Jayden Reed has been the top fantasy receiver for the Packers but changed a lot of fantasy leagues with his goose egg and a 7% TPRR against the Lions. While it may not be time to panic, it’s worth noting that Christian Watson‘s snap share is back up to his usual 90%+ in the past two weeks. Reed, on the other hand, does most of his damage as a slot receiver but is mostly limited to three-receiver sets. For a Packers team that ranks second-lowest in Pass Rate over Expectation (-8.1% PRoE), there’s more risk with Reed when you look a little deeper. Short version: I wouldn’t be surprised if Watson outperforms Reed over the next three weeks.
The outlook for rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has been a little dicey with Trevor Lawrence out for the season, but his talent is shining through despite diminished opportunities. Scoring opportunities won’t be as abundant, but Thomas’ volume should be consistent enough to provide a safe floor. And there’s always a chance he could break free and provide a boom week.
Lastly, Puka Nacua (37% TPRR) and Cooper Kupp (30.4%) lead all other receivers in TPRR this season, a feat I haven’t seen since we began tracking TPRR. Given Matthew Stafford‘s long history of hyper-targeting his favorite receivers, this is likely to continue.
