MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers & Stacks
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Spotlight Pitchers
The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed tonight and it sounds like switch-hitter Ketel Marte is going to be away from the team for another game or two, after asking for a couple days off after his home was burglarized while he was in Atlanta for the All-Star Game. There are also injuries to Gabriel Moreno, Pavin Smith and ildemaro Vargas which is contributing to the Arizona lineup being a little thinner than normal.
This is the 13th MLB campaign for RHP Sonny Gray, who debuted back in 2013 with the Athletics. He has started for five franchises and since 2020, he has been consistent with a 3.47 ERA, 3.62 xERA, 3.19 FIP and 3.33 xFIP. The 35-year-old has seen his strikeout rate slip from 30.0% last year, to 27.3% this season, though that is still good enough to keep him among the top three dozen starting pitchers in the league.
In his last outing, he went only three innings, with rain delays mucking things up in Atlanta. Over his last 10 starts, Gray has allowed more than three runs only twice, with just one home run in this timeframe. Though he his no longer a shutdown ace, Gray did post a complete game in Cleveland, allowing one hit and striking out 11 Guardians on just 89 pitches at the end of June.
Arizona still has a strong top-five, with All-Stars Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez, along with Josh Naylor, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and switch-hitter Geraldo Perdomo, so having a “hedge” stack is a savvy strategy for gamers crafting more than half a dozen lineups.
Rob Refsnyder and Trevor Story offer strikeout potential, though they are savvy veterans who also have good power in righty-lefty matchups. That still leaves youngster Roman Anthony, who has struggled against fellow lefties, as has Jarren Duran, who is now being moved to the back of the lineup against southpaws. The salary is reasonable for the 31-year-old hurler, though it would be nice if the Chicago offense can take care of business against RHP Brayan Bello, to position Imanaga for the win bonus.
The Astros expect to have only two batters in the lineup swinging the stick from the left side of the plate in catcher Victor Caratini and journeyman (and former Seattle outfielder) Taylor Trammell, who has played in a grand total of 140 MLB games since debuting with the mariners in 2021.
In Atlanta, young RHP Will Warren will be taking on the Braves, who are 10 games under .500 and potential sellers with the trade deadline looming. Injuries and of course the suspension of Jurickson Profar for half the season and the recent injury to Austin Riley have not helped, but the team has pretty much been a paper tiger, with only average offensive production against right-handed hurlers.
Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II have been well below replacement level against right-handed pitching and Marcell Ozuna has been benched in same-handed matchups as he too is failing to produce.
In his last 10 starts, RHP Will Warren suffered an eight-run outing in Toronto and a seven-run humiliation at the hands the Dodgers in Los Angeles. In this stretch he has allowed two or fewer runs six times, so we should accept the good with the bad. He does have nine walks and only nine strikeouts in his last 15 innings, which gives a little trepidation, but not a major red flag.
Another option is LHP Logan Allen, with Cleveland hosting the Athletics. The A’s are a patchwork mix against lefties, particularly on the road, with rookie All-Star Jacob Wilson, slugger Brent Rooker and catcher Shea Langeliers the most complete batsmen. Everyone else either has contact, but no power or power, but plenty of strikeout potential.
MLB DFS Optimizer Picks Today: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs
As hinted at in the Imanaga writeup, the Cubbies are in a fine spot against Bello tonight. Humidity will be in the 70% range, with temperatures around 80 degrees and while there is a hint of potential precipitation in the forecast, the game window looks clean in the early forecast runs.
Last year, Bello attempted to survive with a 21.7% combined strikeout rate, though that has slide to a 17.9% combined rate this season and his 8.2% swinging strike rate is barely above his 7.2% barrel rate. To his credit, the fourth-year starter has limited home runs with 0.88 per nine innings, though against a team as deep as Chicago, his propensity for groundballs (53%) will only carry him so far.
We can skip Matt Shaw and Nico Hoener at the bottom of the order, with Dansby Swanson and switch-hitter Ian Happ being more neutral options. The five favorites are the top with outfielders Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong profiling well against Bello’s offerings, as are first baseman Michael Busch and catcher Carson Kelly.
For those who are Bello believers, look to the New York Yankees in Atlanta, against LHP Joey Wentz, who is on his third team this season. He is probably going to top out around two or three innings, then we can expect that RHP Dane Dunning, who was jus acquired from Texas to be the “bulk” option.
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Tampa Bay Rays
Tonight it is RHP Dean Kremer on the mound, who has been getting by with smoke and mirrors, with a 19.3% strikeout rate not doing him any favors as he tries to survive with a flyball rate approaching 30% over the last two seasons, with a 40% hard hit rate in the same timeframe. Brandon Lowe is back in action, giving the Rays plenty of power options in the heart of the order along with fellow lefty Jonathan Aranda, Home Run Derby runner-up Junior Caminero and on-base maven Yandy Diaz. Chandler Simpson and Josh Lowe can be used to round out full stacks, with Baltimore also having a weak bullpen.
Flipping the script, RHP Zach Littell has a similar outcome as Kremer, also getting by on luck. He has an even higher barrel rate (11.7%) and his hard hit and flyball rates are similar. The 29-year-old has been beyond lucky with his 3.56 ERA masking a 4.61 xERA and 4.96 FIP. For all of their foibles, the Batters of Birdland still have plenty of power against right-handed hurlers, with everyone except backup catcher Jacob Stallings posting elite power numbers. Feel free to mix and match the O’s, who can be employed as a full-stack, a complementary mini-stack and as one-offs.
For the early-afternoon games, the San Francisco righties look good in Toronto against LHP Eric Lauer, while anyone with power from the Mets profiles well against RHP Nick Martinez in New York, along with both sides of the Kansas City Royals and Marlins in Miami.
All six teams are worthy of stacking for the late-afternoon action, including the Phillies in Philadelphia against Kikuchi, who is expected to be the most popular hurler.
