With the teeth of draft season just around the corner, it’s a good time to get the Shuffle Up series going.
This week, I’ll offer my player tiers for the four major positions in fantasy football. Consider them as you get ready for your own drafts, or self-scout the teams you’ve already assembled. Quarterbacks are the opening assignment; the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends will follow later this week.
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What matters is how the players relate to one another, where the talent clusters and where it drops off. Players at the same price are considered even.
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As usual at quarterback, the position is deep. It’s one of the long-running ironies of fantasy football — while real-life football is all about the quarterback, it’s not a position of stress for most fantasy managers. This doesn’t mean you can’t attack the position proactively — especially with so many of the superstars offering a juicy rushing upside — but you can do well at any draft price point.
Tier 1: The Big Tickets
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Allen finally bagged his first MVP award despite ordinary help from the Buffalo offense — the Bills didn’t have anyone make it to 830 receiving yards, and Mack Hollins led the club in touchdown catches, a pedestrian five. Unfortunately for Allen, the Bills are basically asking him to play Superman again.
Allen’s aggressive running at the goal line (27 rushing scores in two years) hasn’t cost him a start, and he’s missed just one game since the beginning of the 2019 season. Allen will need to keep the rushing scores up to hold his place in line — the Bills have become more run-heavy under coordinator Joe Brady, and Allen’s passing-yard count from last season was his lowest in five years.
I usually don’t go for a vanity QB in my roster builds, but Jackson presents an appealing case. Jackson didn’t repeat as MVP last year, but he was the best quarterback in football, leading the league in YPA, touchdown rate and QB rating while trimming his sack and interception rates to career-low numbers. The Ravens don’t ask Jackson to run a lot at the goal (just 14 touchdowns in four years), but he averages 1,018 rushing yards for every 17 games started. His professional maturity has coincided with the Ravens surrounding him with better talent and offensive scheming. There’s no good way to defend these guys.
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Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
The Chiefs have made it to the Super Bowl three years running, but Mahomes hasn’t been much of a fantasy treat the last two seasons. His YPA has dipped to 6.9 over this sample (his career rate is 7.8) and his touchdown rate has slipped to 4.5 in the period (against a career norm of 5.9). Maybe the Chiefs will get a boost from a healthy Hollywood Brown, and Xavier Worthy might have an expanded route tree in his second season. But we have to temper expectations for Travis Kelce in his age-36 season, and it’s possible Rashee Rice could be looking at a multiple-game suspension. I can’t view Mahomes as a proactive pick.
Fields probably had the highest gap between real-life and fantasy value. His sack problem is an ongoing one — remember, sacks are more a quarterback stat than an offensive line stat — and the Jets might try to hide him in the offense. But Fields also is the unquestioned starter — Tyrod Taylor is a non-challenging backup — and Fields has the athleticism and willingness to run for 1,000 yards. The receiver room in New York is not deep, but at least Fields and Garrett Wilson know each other from two successful years together at Ohio State. I’ll be ahead of market on Fields.
If the Cardinals improve the offensive scheme and unlock their passing game, it will come at my expense. Murray is a straight fade for me. I worry that his below-average height keeps him from seeing the middle of the field properly — consider how the Cardinals struggled to get layup targets to Marvin Harrison Jr. last year, or unleash Trey McBride in the red area. And Murray’s rushing has become a hit-and-miss proposition in recent years, something that doesn’t always translate — he’s averaged fewer than five rushing attempts over the last two seasons, and some kneeldowns are baked into that stat. Murray’s career started with QB8 and QB3 finishes — he’s been stuck in a QB10, QB18, QB26 and QB10 pattern since (last year’s finish buoyed by playing the full schedule). He’s not going to be part of my 2025 portfolio.
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Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
Williams would like to forget most of his rookie year — those 68 sacks were a horror show — but the Bears basically set him up to fail. Since the end of the year, Williams got everything he wanted for Christmas: an improved offensive line, skill talent in the draft and a respected play caller to take over the offense. Williams needs to get more comfortable playing under center, and although he showed mobility as a rookie, he didn’t run for any touchdowns. I don’t dismiss his upside case out of hand, but I see other players around his general tier that make me more excited.
Lawrence can be had about two rounds cheaper than Williams in early Yahoo drafts, which might present a buying opportunity. We’ve already seen some proof of concept with Lawrence — he was the QB7 back in 2022 — and new schemer Liam Coen is just as respected as Chicago designer Ben Johnson. And although the Jaguars don’t have the offensive depth that the Bears enjoy, opening with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter in the passing game is a good place to start. Lawrence also should run for a handful of touchdowns, offering some extra floor. After watching Coen orchestrate the best season of Baker Mayfield’s career, I’m excited to see what’s possible with the Jaguars.
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McCarthy is another inexpensive upside pick to get excited about, because we’ve watched Kevin O’Connell perform miracles before. Sam Darnold may have crashed at the end of the 2024 season, but we can’t discount 35 touchdown passes or a juicy 7.9 YPA. And recall when the Vikings had injury problems at quarterback the previous season, O’Connell somehow coaxed an 8.8 YPA from Nick Mullens (three starts) and an 8.4 YPA from Jaren Hall (two starts). McCarthy was a five-star recruit and a first-round pick, and I’d follow his coach into a burning building. Even if Jordan Addison misses some time with a possible suspension, the Vikings obviously have plus-talent to throw to.
Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside
Young was the QB6 over the final six games of the year, in part due to improved passing stats, but also boosted by a surprising five rushing touchdowns. The former could be sticky, the latter likely will not be. But the Panthers seemed to make a plus-hire with Dave Canales a year ago, and Young finally gets to work with a bona fide No. 1 target in rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan. Young might not have the upside to climb into the second tier of the position, but he’s a reasonable backup for standard leagues or a solid QB3 target if you play in the Superflex format.
Mike McDaniel has all offseason to fix his passing game, but after watching Tyreek Hill go without a 30-yard catch after Week 1 last year, I’m running away from this offense. Tagovailoa’s concussion history has encouraged the Dolphins to focus on a short-hold passing game, and I’ll need some proof of improvement before I trust this offense again. If that means I miss out on 2025 values, so it goes.
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Tier 5: Bargain Bin
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$2 Anthony Richardson Sr.
