Strikes by doctors could cause 250,000 NHS appointments to be cancelled or postponed this month, a report warns.
The walkouts may also cost the NHS £87million in staffing cover, a think-tank has said.
Resident doctors – previously known as junior doctors – will strike for five days from Friday in pursuit of a 29 per cent pay rise.
Charities have expressed their ‘deep concern’ at the action and warned it will cause ‘significant distress, pain and worsening health for patients’. Now the Policy Exchange think-tank has estimated the ‘considerable’ impact it is likely to have on waiting lists and NHS finances.
Consultants will be able to cash-in by charging hospitals inflated rates of up to £2,504 a shift to cover for absent junior colleagues, depleting trusts of funds that could have been used to buy new scanners, repair buildings or deliver more procedures.
The British Medical Association is further demanding hospitals pay consultants £6,000 to provide on-call cover for striking colleagues.
But there is still unlikely to be enough doctors to provide a full service, meaning bosses will be forced to cancel some appointments.
Resident doctors have crippled the NHS by taking industrial action 11 times since 2022.
Resident doctors – previously known as junior doctors – will strike for five days from Friday in pursuit of a 29 per cent pay rise
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has described the BMA’s behaviour as ‘shockingly irresponsible’ and insisted he will not budge on pay
If strikes occur at the same rate over the next six months, Policy Exchange estimates more than two million appointments could be affected. It also puts the cost of providing consultant cover at £17.5million a day, totalling £367.46million over the same period.
The figures come just days after an investigation revealed coroners’ reports had linked at least five patient deaths to junior doctor strikes in 2023/24. Resident doctors belonging to the BMA have voted to walkout for up to six months despite receiving above inflation pay rises for the past three years, worth an extra 28.9 per cent in total. This includes an inflation-busting rise this year of 5.4 per cent, which is the most generous in the public sector.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has described the BMA’s behaviour as ‘shockingly irresponsible’ and insisted he will not budge on pay.
Policy Exchange estimates that strikes could reduce inpatient activity for the month of July by 4.5 per cent and outpatient activity by 8.7 per cent, threatening NHS England’s ability to meet its target of treating 65 per cent of patients within 18 weeks from next spring.
The report also suggest strikes could make it ‘impossible’ for the Prime Minister to deliver on his pledge to reach a target of 92 per cent by the next election. The analysis assumes a similar level of disruption as in previous strikes.
Charities have expressed their ‘deep concern’ at the action and warned it will cause ‘significant distress, pain and worsening health for patients’
Former Tory health secretary Victoria Atkins welcomed the Policy Exchange’s report, named ‘Completely Unreasonable’: The Possible Impact of the BMA Resident Doctor Committee’s Proposed Industrial Action. She said: ‘As Labour changes the law to make it easier for unions to call strikes, this sort of action will only become more likely.’
Mr Streeting and the BMA are due to meet this week. It is understood other ways to boost doctors’ finances, such as changes to student loans and pensions are being examined.
Fewer than half of resident doctors entitled to vote in the latest BMA ballot backed action. The Mail approached the BMA and the health department for comment.
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