Not every early-round pick lives up to the hype. In fact, some of the biggest names in fantasy football end up being major disappointments based on where they’re drafted. To help you avoid costly mistakes in your 2025 fantasy football drafts, we’ve gathered insights from our collection of Featured Pros to spotlight the worst value picks by current ADP. Whether it’s due to injury risk, team situation, or inflated expectations, these players carry more downside than their draft position suggests. Before you’re on the clock, make sure you know which names to think twice about.
Worst Fantasy Football Picks by ADP
Quarterbacks
Who is the worst fantasy football draft pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): QB6, ADP 54
“Patrick Mahomes at QB6 is a little rich, considering what he has done over the last two years, and there’s little reason to expect better production in 2025. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been a top-six fantasy football quarterback in fantasy points per game since 2022. Over the past two seasons, his passing prowess has suffered with 6.8 and 7.0 yards per attempt and back-to-back finishes with less than 30 passing touchdowns and a 4.5% passing touchdown rate. His rushing production is a nice added value bump at this point that we should expect. Mahomes has finished inside the top 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards in each of the past five seasons (12th, 7th, 9th, 6th, 10th). We know that Kansas City will pass a ton. That is a given at this point, as they have ranked in the top three in neutral passing rate in each of the last four seasons. The worry for Mahomes has been that he has quietly struggled as a passer over the last two seasons. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 19th in CPOE. His shortcomings as a deep passer have plagued him for the last two seasons, as he has been in the bottom ten in CPOE and in the top ten in off-target rate with deep passes (per Fantasy Points Data). Mahomes will have the volume and rushing equity to finish as a QB1 again this year, but unless his passing skills return to a top-shelf level, it’s tough to consider him as anything more than a low-end QB1.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“It might be borderline sacrilegious to say, but Patrick Mahomes at 54 as QB6 seems like a prime way to get little to no value from the position. First things first: Who does he have to throw to? Travis Kelce looked slow last year. Xavier Worthy is a nice toy to have, but is he suddenly going to improve on his WR40 finish last season? Rashee Rice will be back post-injury, which brings with it the fear that he may not be the volume receiver he was. Mahomes has struggled as a passer in the previous two years, and while his rushing production may be enough to end as a QB1, I want nothing to do with him where he is currently being drafted.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB): QB7, ADP 57
“Baker Mayfield at QB7 seems a little rich for me. I get that he’s getting Chris Godwin back, and the team should dominate in an otherwise weak NFC South. However, going right after him are other quality players like Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams. I believe all three have a similar upside to Mayfield. I’m always a fan of grabbing the player at the bottom of the tier, not the top, and Mayfield is at the top of that tier right now.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
“Baker Mayfield shouldn’t be coming off the board in the fifth round. Mayfield had 41 touchdown passes last year after never throwing even 30 TD passes in any other season. He ran for 378 yards last year after never having 200 rushing yards in any previous season. And he was way above his career norms in completion percentage (71.4%) and yards per pass attempt (7.9). Mayfield has lost Liam Coen as his playcaller, a year after losing Dave Canales as his playcaller. The return of WR Chris Godwin from an ankle injury and the drafting of WR Emeka would seem to bode well for Mayfield, but it’s worrisome that star left tackle Tristan Wirfs could potentially miss some early-season games with a knee injury. The price is just too steep for Mayfield, an obvious regression candidate.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Anybody that expects Baker Mayfield to have a repeat of his 2024 season in 2025, please don’t. Mayfield set career outliers, let alone highs, in passing yards, yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, and rushing yards. Couple those outliers with Mayfield’s third offensive coordinator in three years, and those numbers will regress back to his relative mean. Selecting Mayfield at 57th overall, at the QB7, is way too steep a price for a player that won’t replicate his 2024 numbers in 2025.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Bo Nix (QB – DEN): QB8, ADP 71
“I have concerns over Bo Nix. His rookie season was stellar, but the team took their first-round pick and used it on defense. They followed that pick-up in the second round with a running back. The Broncos will now have a chance to run the ball successfully compared to last year, with a team that doesn’t allow many points, leaving Nix in a danger zone as a fantasy-producing quarterback.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
“Bo Nix – Bo knows baseball. Bo knows football. Bo knows basketball, too. Bo knows running. Bo knows fantasy football’s top 10 QBs in 2025? No. Nix is a good player, but inside the top 10 QBs is way too rich for Mark Ringo. Denver’s stout defense and Bo’s lack of draft pedigree from scouts give me pause. Even with offensive guru Sean Payton calling the plays, I’m going to pass on Bo and let someone else pay that expensive QB 8 ADP price tag. And when it comes to telling funny jokes/puns…….Ringo, you don’t know diddly!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jared Goff (QB – DET): QB 11, ADP 87
“Last year, Jared Goff had the best season of his career, finishing as the QB6, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game. He set career highs in several categories, including completion rate (72.4%), passing touchdowns (37), and quarterback rating (111.8). Yet, fantasy football players should temper expectations for the veteran quarterback this season. Detroit lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears and Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to retirement. More importantly, Goff is prime for touchdown regression. Last year, he posted a career-high 6.9% passing touchdown rate. By comparison, his previous career best was 5.9% while his career average is 4.8%. The veteran is overvalued as the QB11 in the ADP. Fantasy players should target Dak Prescott and Justin Fields with a later ADP over Goff.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Jared Goff as the QB11 off the board baffles me. Last season, he beat that QB11 price on a weekly basis in just 8 of his 17 starts. He threw a career-high 37 TD passes in 2024, which, considering the Lions led the NFL at 4.1 TDs per game, is due for regression. Only seven teams topped 3 TDs per game last year, and the Lions now have a new coordinator. I expect Goff to finish pretty in line with where he’s being picked, but if it doesn’t move the needle for your fantasy football team, does it really matter?”
– Justin Frye (Pro Football Network)
“Don’t make the mistake of overpaying for a pocket passing quarterback. Jared Goff is overvalued as a low-end fantasy QB1 (QB11 ADP) with zero rushing to his profile. He lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Lions’ offensive line has lost key pieces, and the schedule is much tougher than it was in 2024. The Lions QB is coming off a career-high passing TD%, which is primed to regress in 2025. Hard pass in 1-QB formats. Draft a dual-threat QB later.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Jared Goff is currently going off the board as a top-12 Quarterback. This team no longer has Ben Johnson or Frank Ragnow. Last year, he was great, QB6 overall and QB7 in points per game on the back of 37 passing touchdowns. Goff’s first time with more than 30 passing touchdowns since 2018. He brings no rushing upside, and the floor can be low. Goff finished outside of the top-12 eight times in 2024, his best fantasy football season.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Running Backs
Who is the worst fantasy football draft pick at RB based on his current ADP and why?
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): RB3, ADP 6
“Most people will hate this, but the answer is Jahmyr Gibbs. I understand his explosive playmaking ability, but people constantly want to write David Montgomery off, even though the Detroit Lions haven’t. Will the split lean towards Gibbs? Absolutely. However, Montgomery will still vulture away touchdowns, and as the second overall running back on FantasyPros, the price is too high for me.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF): RB4, ADP 11
“I see we’re back to believing that Christian McCaffrey will stay perfectly healthy in 2025 and return RB4 value as the 11th pick off the board. How? So many players have their injury risk baked into their ADP, but somehow, McCaffrey skirts that to be a first-round pick? Really? We did this last year when he was ranked No. 1 and rewarded fantasy football managers with 40.3 TOTAL fantasy points. If he stays healthy for the entire season, then sure, he might return Round 1 value, but it would be much more palatable to take that risk if you could get him one or two rounds later. I want nothing to do with him as my first pick off the board.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
“Pretty simple here, Christian McCaffrey will either win or lose fantasy football leagues come 2025. His upside is well documented, a rushing and receiving monster that will be the focal point of the 49ers’ offense. His downside is also well established, with an Achilles injury playing the part of a ticking time bomb. While the reward could outweigh the risk with CMC, there is no denying he is a league winner if healthy, the cost is simply too high as the RB4 at the end of the first round of drafts.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA): RB7, ADP 15
“RB is tough this year because it seems like every option is priced pretty close for me. I’ve been hammering De’Von Achane as overvalued, and even though he’s down at RB8 now, I still feel like that’s a little high. A lot of this feeling is based on how wide a range of outcomes the Dolphins have for their 2025 season. Also, I feel more comfortable taking those guys behind him more than Achane himself. Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, and Chase Brown are all going after Achane right now, and I’d much rather roster any of them right now.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): RB8, ADP 20
“Jonathan Taylor’s upside is great, RB1 overall upside. The downside is that he misses a ton of time. The same could be said about James Conner, who is being drafted at pick 52. Drafting Jonathan Taylor in the top 20 picks is too risky when you look at the players being drafted right behind him like Trey McBride, Kyren Williams, Ladd McConkey, and the RB values 2-3 rounds later.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR): RB12, ADP 33
“I’m out on Kyren Williams at an RB11 price tag. Last year, Williams pulled off his best yesteryear Rachaad White or Leonard Fournette impression. A volume gobbling inefficient back who turned in an RB1 season (RB10). Williams ranked first in snap share, second in opportunity share, and first in red zone touches. With all that said, Williams was one of the most inefficient per-touch backs in the NFL. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams could retain his stranglehold on the volume again in a contract year, but it’s also possible that Blake Corum or Jarquez Hunter could eat into his workload. If Corum or Hunter cut into his touches, Williams will struggle to live up to his RB1 billing as he doesn’t have the passing game usage to help him out (LAR tied for last in the NFL in targets to the RB position).”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“History says that RBs who carry a massive load for 1-2 seasons aren’t great the following season. The leaders in touches in 2023: CMC, Travis Etienne, and Rachaad White. All 2024 busts with the latter two also being inefficient rushers. Insert Rams RB1 Kyren Williams, who ranked near the bottom in explosive run rate, YAC/att, missed tackles forced in 2024, while accumulating nearly 400 touches. The Rams RB1 has been heavily dependent on sheer volume and TDs…but that could change in 2025. Los Angeles drafted another rookie running back in the 4th round this season (Jarquez Hunter) and signed red-zone monster Davante Adams in free agency. Williams could deliver if everything stays the same as last season (although leaning toward that not being the case), but even so, I think that he’s just a small win (RB7/8 finish akin to 2024) compared to his RB12 ADP. Too much risk for an RB coming off 663 combined touches since the start of 2023, when the data is clear, these players faceplant that next season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
James Cook (RB – BUF): RB14, ADP 43
“Fantasy football players should avoid drafting James Cook anywhere near his RB14 ADP. Last year, he finished as the RB8, averaging 15.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Georgia star had 16 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores in 2024, leading the league in rushing touchdowns. By comparison, Cook had four rushing touchdowns and five receiving scores over his first two years in the NFL. Unfortunately, he is a clear-cut touchdown regression candidate. Furthermore, the star running back and the Bills are in the middle of messy contract talks, which could lead to a training camp holdout. Kenneth Walker III and Alvin Kamara have a later ADP than Cook. Yet, I would draft both well before the former Georgia star.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA): RB15, ADP 42
“The Sam Darnold I know and love finally showed up last year and saw ghosts in the playoffs, when the Vikings got smoked by the Rams in Arizona, even with a partisan Vikings crowd cheering them on. Seattle coughed up $100 million for Darnold, which is a huge gamble considering how bad he looked in the playoffs. Without the stout Vikings’ defense, offensive line, and weather-controlled climate to support him, I think Darnold will find the going to be a lot tougher in Seattle. That’s bad news for the Seahawks’ offense, where young “Sky” Walker needs a lot of TDs to justify his current, lofty ADP at RB 15. And before you go….know this…….Kenneth, I am your father. No, not really. I can’t back that up, haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Joe Mixon (RB – HOU): RB19, ADP 55
“The RB market is remarkably reasonable this year. It’s hard to find values so good or bad that they stand out. I suppose Joe Mixon looks a bit overpriced at RB19, No. 55 overall. The Texans’ offensive line was among the worst in the league last year, and offseason repairs have been inadequate patch-ups. (Houston actually traded away its best offensive lineman, Laremy Tunsil.) Mixon, who turns 29 late this month, is on the wrong side of the RB age curve. And the Texans have added more competition at RB by signing Nick Chubb and drafting Woody Marks.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
TreVeon Henderson (RB – NE): RB21, ADP 59
“The RB ADP is pretty good, but the RB who is probably too high is Patriots rookie TreVeon Henderson. The general assumption with Henderson seems to be that the Patriots are so bad that, as pass-catching back (presumed), he’ll be peppered with targets late in games. Based on that quality defense and an ascending offense, don’t be shocked if the Patriots are better than assumed and starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson is the RB who’s more valuable on the year. Henderson isn’t the between-the-tackles grinder, and if he’s just in the “James White” (pass-catching RB) role, is he really worth it in Round 5?”
– Justin Frye (Pro Football Network)
Wide Receivers
Who is the worst fantasy football draft pick at WR based on his current ADP and why?
Nico Collins (WR – HOU): WR7, ADP 12
“I’m struggling to pick a WR here, but I’ll go with Nico Collins for this one. WR7 is pretty rich for a guy with a history of missing games due to injury on a team that was underwhelming last year as a whole. Not to mention that Collins was a stud before he got injured and much less stellar when he came back. Which Collins will you be drafting this year? There’s no way to tell, but I’d rather pass on him at this cost and avoid the mess altogether.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA): WR15, ADP 28
“There are a lot of variables to consider when assessing what on earth to think of Tyreek Hill in 2025. One, will the Dolphins open up the offense after De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith feasted a year ago, post-concussion, for Tua Tagovailoa? Second, what version of Tyreek Hill are fantasy football managers (and the Dolphins) going to get? It wasn’t a certainty that Hill would even return to Miami after he did his best to signal to the team he wanted out after the end of last season. Sure, those fires seem to be out, but for how much longer will they be out? There is too much risk associated with Hill to be taking him anywhere near top 15 WR status.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA): WR16, ADP 31
“The clear answer is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Regardless of stats from last year, he now moves to the X role in a new offense that will move to the run game more than last year. We will also have a new quarterback running the show on a struggling offense. At 20th overall, you are wasting an early pick, which is ultimately doom days for your team.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
“In seventeen games last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had over 100 yards only three times and scored six TDs. Njigba just doesn’t have the speed or burst to generate big plays. He’s a slot WR, which is great in PPR leagues, but not as valuable in Half PPR settings. And while the departures of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett leave a vast amount of targets there for the taking, Seahawks’ new starting QB, Sam Darnold, gives Ringo reason for pause when it comes to Smith-Njigba’s fantasy football outlook. Darnold laid an egg last year in the playoffs for the Vikings, and that was in the weather-controlled dome of State Farm Stadium, not outdoors in the rain and sleet of the Pacific Northwest. Smith-Njigba’s current lofty ADP at WR16 is way too risky for Mark Ringo.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI): WR19, ADP 35
“I struggle to see the avenue where Marvin Harrison Jr. is a top 20 wide receiver this season (WR19 via current ADP). Last year, Harrison Jr. finished as the WR39 in fantasy points per game and the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. After such a disappointing first year, we’re left wondering, entering year two, “Can Harrison live up to last year’s hype and breakout in 2025?” I’ll start by saying I’m doubtful, and I’ll likely remain below consensus on him entering the year, but there’s a pathway for it to happen. Ok, let’s get back to 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Arizona deployed Harrison Jr. primarily as a downfield receiver, with only 29.9% of his routes being horizontal breaking routes and 49.6% of them being vertical breaking routes. In that sample, he drew a 21.4% target share (32nd) with 49.4 receiving yards per game (43rd), a 28.2% first-read share (29th), 0.093 first downs per route run (36th), and 1.97 yards per route run (38th, per Fantasy Points Data). This was a horrible game plan by Arizona’s coaching staff. Last year, Harrison Jr. ranked 84th and 51st in vertical route-breaking separation and route win rate, as opposed to 16th and 19th in those categories when it came to horizontal-breaking routes. The good thing for Harrison Jr. is that in Weeks 10-18, his horizontal route % climbed to 41.4%, while vertical breaking routes made up 38.5% of his usage. The problem is that in Weeks 10-18, his numbers didn’t improve; instead, they actually worsened with the usage change. He had a 20.6% target share (33rd), 55 receiving yards per game (37th), a 27.1% first-read share, 0.078 first downs per route run, and 1.56 yards per route run. His late-season usage and per-route numbers with horizontal routes offer hope, but his declining efficiency with the usage change muddles the 2025 waters. Harrison is a tough player to get excited about, especially with a WR2 price tag attached to his name.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
DJ Moore (WR – CHI): WR21, ADP 41
“Many were afraid to draft DJ Moore last year after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the offseason. However, the former Maryland star finished the year as the WR16, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite playing on a dysfunctional offense. Unfortunately, fantasy football players should avoid drafting Moore at his WR21 ADP. The veteran wide receiver will have even more target competition this season than last year after Chicago used their top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. More importantly, don’t be surprised if Ben Johnson makes the Bears a run-first offense after having success with that mindset in Detroit. Fantasy players should target DK Metcalf, Tetairoa McMillan, and Xavier Worthy with a later ADP over Moore.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): WR22, ADP 46
“DK Metcalf is a great player who landed in perhaps the worst possible setup this side of Cleveland. The current iteration of Aaron Rodgers adds nothing to Metcalf’s value; I’d even suggest it subtracts a bit because it minimizes his deep-threat capabilities. Add in Arthur Smith calling plays, and your biggest hope should be that Metcalf transitions to a backup tight end or something, since those get preferential treatment in a Smith offense. He’s going off the board at 46, and late in the Round 4 doesn’t seem THAT bad. But I don’t see much value, all the same.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): WR25, ADP 50
“I’m skeptical about the projections and ADP of Broncos top WR Courtland Sutton. Last year, the Broncos had pretty much no one around him, no real threat from the running game, and Sutton benefited to the tune of a career high 135 targets. If Devaughn Vele stays healthy through camp, his role is set to grow. They added TE Evan Engram in free agency and RB RJ Harvey in the draft. Bo Nix will have a much deeper set of weapons in 2025 and won’t need to look to Sutton so much. Without as much volume, he’s a riskier pick at the top of Round 5 over several WRs I’d rather draft.”
– Justin Frye (Pro Football Network)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET): WR27, ADP 52
“Jameson Williams finished WR27 or higher 3 times in the last 9 games of the season for the Lions. Williams finished as WR40 or worse 3 times in the last 9 games of the season. He is being drafted as WR27 right now. He is creeping into WR2 territory. Do you feel comfortable with him being your WR2? I didn’t think so.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): WR31, ADP 60
“It’s hard to see Chris Godwin returning a profit for at a price of WR31, No. 60 overall. Yes, Godwin was WR1 in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of 2024, with him and Mike Evans commanding an enormous share of Tampa Bay team targets to that point, but so much has changed. Godwin dislocated his ankle in gruesome fashion in Week 7. Effects of the injury could linger, and it’s possible he won’t be ready for Week 1. The Buccaneers spent a first-round pick on WR Emeka Egbuka, who, like Godwin, does his best work from the slot. The Buccaneers’ 2024 offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, left to take a head-coaching job with the Jaguars. And the Buccaneers’ star left tackle, Tristan Wirfs, is expected to miss some early-season games with a knee injury. It’s hard to see the Tampa offense clicking the way it did last year. Godwin is coming back from a major injury and has added target competition. He’s pretty unappealing at a late-fifth-round ADP.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE): WR34, ADP 63
“Jerry Jeudy finally delivered a WR1 performance in 2024, but I am super skeptical he repeats his efforts in 2025. Last year was the perfect storm. From Week 8 onward, there was no Amari Cooper. Cedric Tillman missed the end of the season with a concussion. Jameis Winston was the Browns’ main QB and fueled most of Jeudy’s success as a fantasy WR kingmaker. But with Winston gone, betting on Jeudy to be the clear-cut No. 1 in Cleveland seems like malpractice. Cedric Tillman and David Njoku are back, and BOTH have experience already playing with presumed Week 1 starter Joe Flacco. This offense has traditionally run through the TEs, and Tillman out-produced and out-targeted Jeudy when healthy (Weeks 7-12). Even Kenny Pickett has experience with Diontae Johnson, should he start games. Jeudy is an easy regression candidate to avoid in 2025 fantasy football drafts. Weeks 1-10, Jeudy was WR54 in fantasy scoring (7.4 PPG, 59th). WR34 ADP. Just say no.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Tight Ends
Who is the worst fantasy football draft pick at TE based on his current ADP and why?
Brock Bowers (TE – LV): TE1, ADP 18
“Brock Bowers is really good, REALLY good. But at 18th overall? C’mon. Bowers would need to replicate, if not better, his record-breaking season from 2024 in 2025 to be worth the price tag. While he will be the focal point for the Raiders in a new look offense spearheaded by Geno Smith, the Raiders did add to their pass catcher arsenal with Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton. Will Geno pepper Bowers the same way the Raiders’ array of quarterbacks did in 2024, or will the offense be more balanced after the new WR additions and 1st first-round pick Ashton Jeanty? While Bowers will be great in 2025, the question every drafter will have is, can he do it again? He will have to, just to live up to his hefty price.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Travis Kelce (TE – KC): TE5, ADP 89
“I’m not taking Travis Kelce as a top 5 TE in 2025, and his ADP is still that high. For starters, Kelce actually finished as the TE6 last year, his first time outside the top 3 at TE since 2015. He’s not the primary underneath read in the offense when everyone is on the field anymore, either. In the three games Kelce and Rashee Rice shared the field in 2024, Kelce averaged about four targets, three catches, 27 yards, and no TDs. It likely won’t be that bad, but Rice took Kelce’s job and is set to return to training camp fully healthy.”
– Justin Frye (Pro Football Network)
“I hate to break it to you, but Travis Kelce is old. And when tight ends get old, they often lose their efficiency. He was 18th in yards per route run at 1.62 and 40th in yards after the catch per reception at 3.86. While Patrick Mahomes will probably still target him plenty, these underlying numbers do not translate to vastly outperforming his ADP of 89, especially given some of the tight ends who should be available later in the draft. I’m not putting my eggs in the basket of a 35-year-old tight end in 2025.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): TE8, ADP 104
“The answer is Mark Andrews. We will see a regression regarding his high touchdown total, and as he ages and his athletic ability diminishes, Isaiah Likely will continue to flash and take more of the snap share. After the bye last year, Andrews averaged a 69% snap share compared to Likely’s 67%.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
“I want no part of Mark Andrews in 2025 as the TE8. He was the TE10 in PPG last season and TE21 in expected fantasy points per game. He scored 11 TDs, which was the same amount as his two previous seasons combined. After his dramatic fall off last season outside of scoring TDs, I can’t be confident clicking the button on Andrews when he might not even emerge as the top tight end on his team by the time 2025 reaches its conclusion. Isaiah Likely’s breakout seems imminent, and the Ravens’ ascending tight end costs next to nothing to stash in fantasy football drafts.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
David Njoku (TE – CLE): TE9, ADP 114
“Love David Njoku’s talent, but hate the situation. When a 40-year-old QB is the best QB on your team, things are not good. And if the Browns’ season goes south, they could turn to one of their youngsters sooner rather than later. That’s usually a recipe for disaster. Well, look at the bright side, Browns’ fans, at least you have Mark Ringo’s great jokes to carry you through the season, haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
“David Njoku at TE9 with all of the unknown at QB in Cleveland concerns me. We have seen the upside with him, but we have also seen the downside and the inconsistency. I would rather pieces on good offenses and with some certainty at QB. If you are going to wait on TE and draft a player with some risk, I would just keep waiting. Plenty of good players being drafted around Njoku when you can wait on a guy like Zach Ertz or Brenton Strange 4 rounds later.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Tyler Warren (TE – IND): TE10, ADP 121
“The tight end rankings are pretty good at the top, but seeing rookie TE Tyler Warren at TE11 makes me really nervous. Not only do rookie tight ends generally take a while to pay off, but Colts TEs also have a history of being inconsistent for fantasy football lately. I’m all for Warren as a player, but if I’m going with a late tight end, I’d much rather take a chance on a veteran like Tucker Kraft, Dalton Kincaid, or Jake Ferguson, all of whom are going after Warren right now.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
Jonnu Smith (TE – PIT): TE14, ADP 139
“Jonnu Smith’s spot in the ADP significantly dropped following his trade to the Steelers. Yet, the veteran is still overvalued as the TE13 in ADP. Last season, he finished as the TE4, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, players rarely have a breakout year this late in their career and maintain that level of success. Furthermore, Smith will be on the wrong side of 30 when the 2025 season starts. More importantly, he has never been a reliable option for fantasy football players in Arthur Smith’s offense. The veteran tight end has averaged 3.7 targets and 6.4 fantasy points per game in three seasons with Smith as the playcaller. Dalton Kincaid and Colston Loveland have a later ADP than Smith. Yet, I would draft both well before the veteran tight end.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Despite his move to Pittsburgh, Jonnu Smith remains a TE1. Even if his price dipped to, say, TE15, I still can’t draft him at that cost. Jonnu Smith’s upside in fantasy was quickly vaporized for 2025 with his arrival in Pittsburgh. We’ve seen what this looks like before. In 2023, when Smith was with Atlanta, he was the TE20 in fantasy points per game despite logging five weeks as a TE1 in fantasy scoring. He had a 57.9% route share (26th), a 13% target share (21st), 34.2 receiving yards per game (17th), and 1.67 yards per route run (12th, per Fantasy Points Data). Smith is a nice real-life addition for the Steelers, but he will likely only serve as a streaming tight-end option for fantasy football purposes in 2025.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI): TE15, ADP 146
“Colston Loveland is an attractive asset in dynasty leagues, but taking him at 146 overall in a redraft seems like setting a draft pick on fire. Yeah, rookie tight ends have been popping lately, with Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers finishing as fantasy TE1s the last two years. Those guys had relatively unfettered paths to targets. Loveland will have to compete for targets with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Cole Kmet. The Bears’ offense should be improved this year, but second-year QB Caleb Williams might not be ready for liftoff. Loveland missed OTAs after having offseason shoulder surgery and might not be full-go when training camp opens, further clouding his Year 1 outlook. Best to wait a year on Loveland in redraft leagues.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
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