Don’t fall prey to sinking your fantasy football draft capital into underperforming backfields! Join Ryan Wormeli, Jake Ciely and guest Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) of Fantasy Points for their top 11 fantasy football running backs to run from in 2025. Here are 11 overvalued running backs to avoid in 2025 fantasy football drafts, along with a few risky names that might still be worth a late-round flyer.
???? Overvalued Early-Round Running Backs
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders)
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Current ECR: RB4
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Jeanty is being drafted based on elite talent, but Jake Ciely and Ryan Heath argue the rookie is being overdrafted due to concerns about the Raiders’ offense, a tough schedule, and touchdown upside. They see him as more appropriately valued around RB8.
Josh Jacobs (Packers)
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Current ECR: RB9
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Jacobs benefited from an unusually run-heavy Green Bay offense in 2024, but Ryan Heath expects regression. If the Packers pass more and face tougher game scripts, Jacobs’ production could drop sharply. His value is sensitive to game flow, averaging 7 fewer fantasy points in losses since 2022.
Joe Mixon (Texans)
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Current ECR: Mid-RB2
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Mixon faces multiple red flags: age, injury risk, and competition from Nick Chubb and Woody Marks. The Texans’ O-line remains a mess, and the offense may not support enough volume to make Mixon worth his ADP.
James Cook (Bills)
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Current ECR: RB12
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Cook led all RBs in red zone efficiency in 2024—an unsustainable metric. With limited receiving work and competition from Ray Davis, Cook is unlikely to match last year’s touchdown production. Jake and Ryan see him as more of a low-end RB2.
⚠️ Mid-Round Running Backs to Fade
Tony Pollard (Titans)
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Current ECR: RB26
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Jake Ciely questions Pollard’s ceiling. Even as the clear lead back, Pollard’s best-case scenario still projects him as a backend RB2. Ryan Heath sees upside if rookie QB Cam Ward exceeds expectations, but Pollard’s fantasy ceiling remains limited.
David Montgomery (Lions)
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Current ECR: RB21
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Without Ben Johnson calling plays, the Lions’ offensive system may not remain as running back-friendly. Montgomery’s value relies on touchdowns, and even a modest uptick in Jahmyr Gibbs’ role could push him out of weekly flex consideration.
Tyrone Tracy (Giants)
D’Andre Swift (Bears)
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Current ECR: RB22
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Swift has always struggled in outside zone schemes, and the Bears may be a poor schematic fit. He’s also shown limited upside in past lead-back roles (e.g., Eagles 2023). Ryan Heath sees more appealing mid-round options with higher ceilings.
???? Risky Running Backs Still Worth Drafting
Javonte Williams (Cowboys)
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Current ECR: RB36
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Jake Ciely sees value at cost. Williams could lead the Cowboys’ backfield from Day 1 and doesn’t need to return to pre-injury form to return RB2 value. As long as his price stays low, he’s worth the gamble.
Alvin Kamara (Saints)
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Current ECR: Outside top 15
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Despite concerns about the Saints’ offense, Kamara remains a high-volume, pass-catching RB. Jake is still drafting him as a top-15 RB.
Breece Hall (Jets)
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Current ECR: RB13–RB14
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Ryan Heath points to elite underlying metrics: 4.8 targets/game, 22 fantasy points/game in high-snap games, and second in yards per route run behind only CMC. If healthy and used as a three-down back, Hall offers true league-winning upside.
Kenneth Walker (Seahawks)
Fantasy Football Running Back Busts Timestamps:
- Introduction – 0:00:00
- Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV) – 0:02:41
- Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) – 0:05:27
- Joe Mixon (RB – HOU) – 0:10:15
- James Cook (RB – BUF) – 0:13:58
- Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) – 0:17:46
- David Montgomery (RB – DET) – 0:21:06
- Tyrone Tracy (RB – NYG) – 0:25:52
- D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) – 0:29:00
- Javonte Williams (RB – DAL) – 0:33:25
- Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) – 0:38:45
- Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA) – 0:41:59
- Outro – 0:45:13
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