As the Fantasy Footballers take a closer look at each NFL division, the next pit stop finds us in the AFC East, a division dominated by the Buffalo Bills for the last five seasons and the New England Patriots for 11 years before that. Do the fellas think the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have a chance to make a splash this season, or will the Bills bring home a sixth consecutive division title?
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Let’s Get Divisional – AFC East
Buffalo Bills (13 – 4)
Player Additions: WR Elijah Moore, WR Joshua Palmer, WR Laviska Shenault Jr., RB Darrynton Evans
Player Subtractions: WR Amari Cooper, WR Mack Hollins
Rookies: WR Kaden Prather (Round 7), TE Jackson Hawes (Round 5)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 11.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 1st | 26th | 9th | 7th | 9th | 9th | 1st |
The Bills have been on a tremendous run, making the playoffs six straight years, including five consecutive division titles, but they haven’t been able to break through the AFC as a whole to make it to the Big Game.
It hasn’t been because of a lack of QB play, as Josh Allen has been as dependable as they come for both his team and fantasy football. His exceptional play in 2024 culminated with his first MVP award, finishing the season with 3,731 passing yards, 40 total TDs (28 passing, 12 rushing), and a career-low six INTs.
Allen is once again being drafted as the QB1, and there are no signs of him slowing down anytime soon. But after Allen, the fantasy expectations for the other players on the roster get a little murky, for pass-catchers and RBs alike.
Khalil Shakir led the team last season in receiving yards (861), receptions (76), and targets (100), finishing as the WR37 in PPR formats. Getting fringe WR3 numbers from the lead wideout on the No. 2 scoring team in the league feels like one of those “math doesn’t math” situations, but that’s precisely where we are.
While Shakir will likely be the first option again in the passing game, Jason and Andy both agree that the better bet is on second-year wideout Keon Coleman. He was a complete non-factor last season, catching just 29 passes, but with an ADP that finds him nearly undrafted, he’s got a shot to bring back value if he can step up in his sophomore campaign.
The same thinking with Coleman could be applied to Dalton Kincaid, who, after a promising rookie year, came back with a lackluster sophomore season. With a late-round ADP currently, he’s a TE who could return value at cost.
One of the biggest questions surrounds the way the RB room will be utilized, as James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson make up what Jason calls a “mega timeshare.” Cook finished as the RB8 last season, but it was on the back of 18 TDs (16 rushing) playing just 45% of snaps. Negative TD regression is expected, but it’s still in the realm of possibilities that he ends up with double-digit TDs. Currently being drafted as the RB14, Cook still has the chance to be a top-12 player at the position as part of a high-scoring offense, but it will be interesting to see how much work Davis and Johnson get this year.
Miami Dolphins (8 – 9)
Player Additions: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Darren Waller
Player Subtractions: RB Raheem Mostert, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Durham Smythe
Rookies: QB Quinn Ewers (Round 7), RB Ollie Gordon II (Round 6)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 22nd | 8th | 15th | 18th | 19th | 21st | 24th |
The Dolphins finished last season just one game under .500, but it certainly didn’t feel that way. Known for their prolific offense the year prior, the Dolphins’ creativity and explosiveness were set aside in favor of a dink-and-dunk system, which resulted in the 22nd-ranked offense. The big plays Miami was known for pretty much disappeared.
A big part of the downturn was the injury to Tua Tagovailoa and the need to protect him in the pocket. That led to quicker throws and less time to develop the down-the-field plays that made Miami’s offense so exceptional. The Dolphins also struggled to rush the ball, finishing 30th in the league in runs stopped at the line of scrimmage.
A player who took advantage of the dink and dunk offense was De’Von Achane, who was targeted 29% of the time on his routes and was looked at 87 times in the air, just two targets shy of league leader Alvin Kamara. With Jonnu Smith now gone, that’s 111 targets that need to be accounted for. Expect Achane to get a healthy dose of dump-offs again this year, even if Miami’s offense reverts to its 2023 style.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the other two names that should absorb the majority of Smith’s vacated targets. Yes, Darren Waller, fresh out of retirement and the music studio, will get some looks, but a bounce-back is in the cards for both Hill and Waddle if they can remain healthy.
The success of the offense boils down to an offensive line that has three new projected starters and will be without stalwart Terron Armstead, who retired. If the line can give Tua more time in the pocket and open up rushing lanes, then fantasy gold can be mined throughout the roster.
New York Jets (5 – 12)
Player Additions: QB Justin Fields, WR Josh Reynolds
Player Subtractions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Davante Adams, TE Tyler Conklin
Rookies: WR Arian Smith (Round 4), TE Mason Taylor (Round 2)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 5.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 25th | 5th | 16th | 6th | 32nd | 31st | 31st |
There’s a new QB and new coach in New York hoping to lead the team back to glory. It will fall on the shoulders of Justin Fields, who, despite only starting six games last year in Pittsburgh, looked good on the field and in the fantasy box score.
Fields went 4-2 in six starts last year before being replaced by Russell Wilson, and averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game thanks in large part to his rushing ability. Those are fringe QB1 numbers, and the Ballers expect similar numbers this year with the Jets, making him a value as the QB18 being selected in drafts as of now.
Garrett Wilson, who has the second-most targets through three years in NFL history, is poised to be the primary beneficiary in the offense yet again. There is no real depth of pass-catchers after Wilson, leading Jason to suggest he could see close to 200 targets. The team brought in Josh Reynolds and drafted Mason Taylor, but Reynolds has fewer targets in the last three years combined than Wilson had last year alone, and Taylor is a rookie unknown.
The biggest mystery lies in the hands of Breece Hall, who had so much promise coming into the league in 2022, but due to injury and poor play, has failed to meet expectations. He’s currently being drafted at the end of the third round, a hefty price coming off an RB17 season. The Ballers consensus rankings have him finishing as the RB17 again this year, pretty much replicating what he did last season. But as Jason points out, the majority of his fantasy success comes in the receiving game, and there’s concern that he’ll see fewer targets from Fields, who can tuck the ball and run in check-down situations.
Additionally, there’s been a lot of talk of getting the other two RBs, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, more involved, which would further hamper Hall’s fantasy numbers.
New England Patriots (4 – 13)
Player Additions: QB Joshua Dobbs, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Mack Hollins
Player Subtractions: QB Jacoby Brissett
Rookies: RB TreVeyon Henderson (Round 2), WR Kyle Williams (Round 3)
2025 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2024 Offensive Ranks:
| PPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Atts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs |
| 30th | 24th | 32nd | 31st | 20th | 13th | 26th |
After winning just four games last season, Vegas has the Patriots projected to win 8.5 games, to the surprise of Andy and Mike. But not Jason, who brings up the fact that every year a team that isn’t expected to be good surprises people, and he believes the Patriots could be one of those teams this year.
It starts with Drake Maye, who took over the starting job in Week 6 and played well given the circumstances. Maye threw for 15 TDs to 10 INTs but was a revelation on the ground, rushing for over 30 yards a game. He’s only the eighth QB since 2000 to rush for over 30 yards per game in their rookie season.
He will have a new RB to hand the ball off to in TreVeyon Henderson, a second-round pick who flourished in college at Ohio State. But it will be tricky with entrenched starter Rhamondre Stevenson still in the fold in the second year of a contract extension he received last season. Mike thinks Henderson’s talent will allow him to overtake the starting job, while Andy believes Stevenson still has a chance to be “annoyingly productive,” leading to more of a timeshare.
In terms of receiving options, the Patriots brought in Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, and drafted Kyle Williams to join Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas. It’s yet to be seen if Diggs will be able to start the season or will begin the year on the PUP. If it’s the former, he’s the locked-in No. 1 option in the WR room, but if he has to miss time early, other WRs will have to step up for Maye and the team to ascend.
Who Wins the AFC East?
Andy: Buffalo
Mike: Buffalo
Jason: Buffalo
While the Ballers all agree Buffalo will win the division, Andy, Mike, and Jason all have a different team finishing in second. Andy thinks it will be Miami, Mike believes New York will finish second, and Jason is in on New England.
