The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Lucas Giolito ($8,500) Boston Red Sox (-316) vs. Colorado Rockies
I had another profitable day yesterday with the same strategy I used Monday — roster the Red Sox pitcher at home against the Rockies. Brayan Bello turned in a complete game, putting up a total of 38 DraftKings points in the effort.
There’s no reason not to go back to that well today, especially with Giolito — at least on paper — being the strongest starter to take the field for Boston. He comes into the game with an ERA in the mid-threes and a strikeout rate north of 20%.
The other two Red Sox starters this week (Bello and Richard Fitts) both have strikeout rates in the teens coming into the matchup. As we’ve discussed, the Rockies strike out at the highest rate in the league against righties, and 4% more on the road than at home.
The bad news is we’re unlikely to get the manageable ownership on Giolito that we got from Bello and Fitts, as he’s projected to lead the slate. His median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections also lead the slate, though, so it’s worth eating the chalk this time.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Sandy Alcantara ($6,900) Miami Marlins (+119) at Cincinnati Reds
With the clear top pitcher on the slate also leading our Pts/Sal projections, it’s hard to find a candidate for the value play tonight. One option is Bryce Elder ($6,200) Atlanta Braves (-116) at Athletics,) but he comes into the game with an ERA around 6.00 and is in one of the top hitter’s parks in baseball tonight.
Alcantara’s outlook could be summed up similarly, as his ERA is just north of 7.00 and Great American Ball Park is also one of the better hitter’s parks — though nowhere near the extreme degree that Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is.
The difference is that Alcantara at least used to be good. Before his injury-shortened 2023 season that caused him to miss last year entirely, he had three consecutive seasons with an ERA below 3.18 and a strikeout rate in the mid-20s. While a return to form looks more unlikely with each passing bad start, it’s at least within the realm of possibility.
Plus, the Reds are a below-average offense, and Alcantara’s ERA predictors are in the mid-fours. Not great, but potentially enough to take a flier or two at his price tag, especially with favorable pitching weather.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kris Bubic ($10,000) Kansas City Royals (-190) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
On most slates, Bubic would be an obvious stud choice. The lefty is having a breakout season this year after returning to the starting rotation, posting a 2.36 ERA and 25.6% strikeout rate through 17 starts. Despite being used exclusively in relief last season, he’s also averaging over six innings per start, which has added up to just over 20 DraftKings points per game.
Crucially, he also has an elite matchup today. Pittsburgh is the worst team in baseball against lefties by wRC+, with a 68 wRC+ that is one point worse than the Rockies. They also strike out at the second highest rate in the majors against lefties, making this an ideal spot.
Which makes it somewhat surprising that Pittsburgh is implied for 3.8 runs, though the argument could be that the market expects those runs to come against relievers. I’m not going to overthink it myself, though, especially with Bubic’s projected ownership outside of the top five on the slate.
Pairing Bubic and Giolito is a bit pricey, but as has been the case this week, there’s a cheap enough top stack that it’s not especially difficult to find the salary.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
After two days of absurdly low price tags on the Red Sox, their top stack has crept up slightly to just over $4,000 per player. That’s largely due to the matchup with right-handed Antonio Senzatela ($4,500), which elevates Jarren Duran to the leadoff spot.
Still, they’re a clear value relative to their slate-leading 5.9 run total. Senzatela’s extremely low price tag is a solid reflection of how strong the matchup is — I thought $5,000 was the minimum salary for non-openers — and Fenway Park remains one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.
Boston has put up at least nine runs in each of the two games of this series so far, and while they’re unlikely to get to that mark again, it wouldn’t shock me. I see no reason to adopt a different strategy until Colorado leaves town.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jonathan India 2B ($3,400) Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter)
As a team, the Royals are somewhat worse against left-handed pitching than right, with just a 77 wRC+. However, three of their first four hitters are on the strong side of their splits tonight against the left-handed Bailey Falter ($6,700), whose 3.69 ERA hides a SIERA mark over 5.00
Indi is one of those hitters who does his best work against lefties, as we see in PlateIQ:
He’s also too cheap for his leadoff spot in the lineup of a team implied for five runs, making him a solid value.
Lawrence Butler OF ($4,500) Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder)
As I often point out, the Park Factor for the A’s temporary home in Sacramento is roughly the same as in Coors Field, making it an elite hitters park. That explains the 10.5-run over/under in the Braves/Athletics game tonight.
Well, that and the matchup against Bryce Elder ($6,200), who has a 5.92 ERA on the season. All of the A’s hitters are in play today, but Butler’s mix of power and speed — he’s hit double digits in steals and home runs this season — gives him plenty of upside.
He also leads the team in Pts/Sal projection, making him a good starting point for A’s stacks.
Matt Olson 1B ($5,200) Atlanta Braves at Athletics (Mitch Spence)
Of course, I’m interested in both sides of the Athletics home contest tonight. On the Braves side, I’m especially looking to roster left-handed hitters, for two reasons.
First, A’s starter Mitch Spence ($6,800) has allowed lefties to hit .310 against him this season, compared to just .213 for righties. Additionally, the wind is blowing out to right field in Sacramento, which helps left-handed pull hitters.
Unfortunately Atlanta is a fairly right-handed lineup, but Olson is a notable exception. He has an .859 OPS against righties on the season.
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Pictured: Jarren Duran
Photo Credit: Getty Images
