Let’s look at fantasy football draft picks who are overpriced based on Sleeper ADP for redraft leagues.
Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on Sleeper
Jordan Love (GB) – ADP 122.7 | QB14
Last year, Love finished as the QB17, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game. More importantly, his touchdown production declined because of Josh Jacobs. After totaling 32 passing touchdowns and four rushing scores in 2023 without the star running back, Love had 25 passing touchdowns and one rushing score last season, while Jacobs had 16 offensive touchdowns. While the Packers drafted Matthew Golden, the team lacks an elite set of weapons. Dak Prescott, Justin Fields, and Drake Maye have a later ADP than Love. Yet, I would draft them before him.
Isiah Pacheco (KC) – ADP 64.2 | RB23
Unfortunately, Pacheco missed nine games last season because of injury. Furthermore, he averaged 8.1 PPR fantasy points per game, the second-lowest average of his career, while posting career lows in yards per rushing attempt (3.7) and offensive touchdowns (one). More importantly, Pacheco lost his starting role to Kareem Hunt after returning from a broken fibula. Meanwhile, the Chiefs added Elijah Mitchell and Brashard Smith to the backfield after re-signing Hunt. Between the crowded backfield and his injury history, fantasy players shouldn’t draft Pacheco as anything more than a mid-range RB3.
Chris Olave (NO) – ADP 65.5 | WR31
Fantasy players will likely want to avoid most of New Orleans’ offense this season. Olave missed nine games last year with multiple concussions. Furthermore, he was the WR56 on a points-per-game basis among wide receivers with at least eight contests played, averaging 9.6 PPR fantasy points per outing. Despite playing in two more games, Olave had only 0.9 more total fantasy points than Rashid Shaheed (76.7 vs. 75.8). Fantasy players shouldn’t draft Olave as anything more than a boom-or-bust low-end WR4 unless the Saints significantly improve their quarterback situation.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – ADP 56.9 | TE5
Hockenson missed the first seven games last year, recovering from a torn ACL he suffered late in the 2023 season. While fantasy players should expect him to bounce back after a down year, the veteran is overvalued as the fifth tight end off the board and a late fifth-round pick. The star tight end will be the third option in Minnesota’s passing game behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Fantasy players are better off waiting nearly two rounds to draft Travis Kelce than taking Hockenson at his current ADP.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
