Tropics likely to stay quiet through at least Labor Day
For the second year in a row, we may have no named tropical systems in the Atlantic on Labor Day, which is rare during the peak of hurricane season.
- Texas has experienced a quiet hurricane season so far compared to last year.
- Hurricane season peaks in August and September, and preparedness is crucial.
- No storms have directly impacted Texas this year, unlike last year’s early storms Alberto and Beryl.
The tropics have been relatively kind to Texas this year, especially compared with last year, when hurricane season kicked off early with Alberto and Beryl — both striking the state before it remained largely untouched the rest of the season.
So far, this season has produced six named storms, none of which have made U.S. landfall, though Erin brought brutal impacts to North Carolina’s Outer Banks.
Nearing peak season, there’s only one system on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map as we get ready to move into the Labor Day weekend. If it develops, the storm will be named Gabrielle.
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Are any disturbances headed to Texas? See path
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa by Sunday, Aug. 31.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0%.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30%.
The National Hurricane Center is watching this disturbance most closely as the potential biggest threat in coming days — though that could change.
It’s too early to determine if the system will even develop — and far too early to determine exactly where it’s headed.
➤ It’s peak hurricane season, but there are no Katrina-like storms on horizon | WeatherTiger
Other tropical waves being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
- Tropical wave 1: A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 20N, moving westward near 6 mph. A large area Saharan Air Layer dust is evident north and west of the wave.
- Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 17 mph.
- Tropical wave 3: A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 17 mph.
- Tropical wave 4: The tropical wave previously over the NW Caribbean is now mainly in the eastern Pacific.
‘Rare gift’: Why are tropics quiet right now?
Historically, one or more tropical storms or hurricanes develop in the Atlantic Basin around Labor Day weekend, according to AccuWeather.Â
“Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air across the Atlantic for another week and perhaps longer should bestow the rare gift of a tropical cyclone-free Labor Day weekend,” said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
“It’s possible that we do not have a named storm on Labor Day again this year. If so, that would make it two years in a row,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva via email.
“The last time that has happened — two years in a row of no named storm in the Atlantic Basin on Labor Day — was 1991 and 1992.”Â
“This uncharacteristic calm belies the dangers of the busiest month of hurricane season,” Truchelut said, adding September typically brings three to six named storms, two to four hurricanes, and one or two major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that’s a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season compare to last year in Texas?
For Texas, the season has been relatively quiet so far — a sharp contrast to mid-August last year, when the state was already six weeks past the final storm to impact the state, which saw the two earliest storms of the 2024 hurricane season.
In late June 2024, Tropical Storm Alberto threatened the Texas, and by early July, the Lone Star State was tracking one one of the hardest-hit hurricanes of the season — Hurricane Beryl, which became the earliest Category 5 storm on record before making its third landfall near Matagorda. After that, the remainder of the season was relatively mild for Texas, with no other storm threatening the state.
No storms have directly affected Texas this season, but forecasters warn the season is ramping up as it nears its peak months in August and September.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The season peaks in August and September.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Prepare now for hurricanes
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. “Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period,” NOAA recommends.
- Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
- Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
- Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
- Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
- Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com.
