Battling Uncertainty And Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable: The Fantasy Notebook

Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.

The Countdown Is On!

The 2025 regular season is just days away, with the Cowboys and Eagles kicking the festivities off on Thursday night in Philadelphia. Many of you have already completed the drafts that matter most to you — your all-important home or long-running online leagues, high-stakes contests, and other competitions.

But not all of you.

So this week’s Fantasy Notebook is going to be a blend of information for those heading into their final drafts of the year — and for those of you starting to ponder Week 1 lineup decisions. 

As always, the battles we fight are similar . . .

Clarity Vs. Confusion

We love fantasy football because it brings us closer to the game we love. The idea of having a direct connection to the NFL and its contests is a massive part of what makes our hobby so appealing. 

But the same things that make the sport so fantastic for us as fans, viewers, and consumers — close, unpredictable outcomes based on wide-ranging factors that are outside of our control — make achieving our objectives in the fantasy version equally difficult.

The irony lies in the fact that we would love to have the same thing NFL coaches and decision-makers desire . . .

What We Want: Certainty

Wouldn’t it be great if we could go into each week secure in our understanding of matchups, injuries, weather, and countless other variables that determine the outcome of games?

What We Get: Uncertainty

NFL coaches go to great lengths to limit variance in terms of preparation and planning, even though they know unexpected developments at any point along the way will change all their best-laid plans. Fantasy managers, of course, are in the same boat.

How do we achieve success in a game that’s essentially based on variance?

Get Comfortable Being Uncomfortable

We deal with uncertainty in fantasy football by mitigating risks to the degree possible. We deal with it by making decisions based on the best information we have in the moment.

But mostly, it’s best dealt with by doing something Footballguys CEO Joe Bryant kindly reminds me of on the regular: “We’re all like NFL QBs — part of the job description is getting comfortable being uncomfortable.”

A big part of that is understanding our reality and realizing where we stand at any given time.

Some of it comes from experiencing the discomfort that comes with uncertainty. It’s helpful to see there are . . .

Varying Degrees Of Uncertainty

Uncertainty isn’t black and white. It’s nuanced. There’s no end to the intrigue fantasy investors will be facing this weekend and heading into Week 1. There are decisions to be made, and not all of them are going to be great. We’ll use this Notebook to sample a few flavors of uncertainty — like suspensions, injuries, rehabs, usage shifts, rookie volatility, and more.

And we’ll get uncomfortable along the way . . . 

Resolved . . . But Not Really

Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice accepted a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy and will start serving the suspension at the beginning of the season.

Rice will be eligible to return to the Chiefs in Week 7 ahead of their Oct. 19 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. 

All this after Rice was sentenced to 30 days in jail and five years’ probation for his role in a multicar crash in Dallas that left multiple people injured during the 2024 offseason.

The 25-year-old initially faced a September 30 disciplinary hearing. He would have been available to play for at least four games, and possibly (given the appeal process) two or three beyond that. Eventually, he would have gotten a suspension that would have been served during the season.

His alternative was to do a deal with the league. Resolve the case, accept a suspension, and avoid the uncertainty of an internal system that the league ultimately controls.

Why accept six games to start the season?

As Profootballtalk.com’s Mike Florio suggested, common sense points to one inescapable conclusion: Rice and his representatives believed that, if they had pushed the process through to a conclusion, he would have gotten more than six games.

If he’d forced a final decision, he undoubtedly would have missed more.

And so, instead of Rice being available for six high-profile games to start the season (with one on YouTube, one in the FOX late-afternoon window, two on NBC’s Sunday Night Football, one in the CBS late-afternoon window, and one on ESPN/ABC’s Monday Night Football), Rice will now miss each of those games. 

Whatever the case, fantasy investors now have the information necessary to make some decisions . . .

What We Know For Sure

Let’s remember why we were so high on Rice in the first place. He had 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdown catches in his 2023 rookie season. 

Last year, he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4 after he tore the lateral collateral ligament in his right knee. 

He had 24 catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns in those four games.

How impressive was that? 

As Footballguy Ben Cummins put it, “[Rice’s] 2024 breakout into superstar status was going to be glorious.”

His game logs before the season-ending injury bear that out: Week 1: 9 targets, 7 catches, 103 yards; Week 2: 6 targets, 5 catches, 75 yards, 1 touchdown; Week 3: 14 targets, 12 catches, 110 yards, 1 touchdown.

Cummins went on to explain that head coach Andy Reid loves to use Rice in motion, on screens, and with targets near the line of scrimmage to let him use his elite yards after catch ability. But he also has the athleticism and talent to win down the field.

What We Can’t Know

Rice needed surgery to repair the LCL, with reports indicating it was the only ligament requiring repair. At the time of the surgery, it was estimated to take about 3-4 months to recover, which would end his season, but not his career.

Rice resumed running in April, and his quarterback, Patrick Mahomes II, shared his impressions of what he’d seen from Rice during OTAs, telling reporters the last week of May that the wideout was moving with “no limitations” and looking like the same guy who turned in a strong rookie season. 

“He’s out there playing, he’s making plays on the football field,” Mahomes said. “He’s explosive; he looks fast. You saw the start of last season. I think he can be one of the best receivers in the league.”

Rice also provided an optimistic update as camp opened earlier this month.

“I feel better than I felt last year,” said Rice. “I was able to work on things that I didn’t know. I had to focus on my right knee; shout out to Dr. Cooper, who did a great job on my knee. So I just got to focus on small things, which helped me improve my game on the field.” 

All that is well and good, but Footballguy Matt Waldman still expressed concerns. “Rice may be at full speed, but the hidden issue about injuries requiring long rehabs is whether the body parts involved can heal fast enough when the weekly punishment begins,” Waldman wrote. “Think ’23 Tony Pollard and ’24 Kirk Cousins” — two players who looked ready on paper but didn’t fully regain their form coming off injuries.

While it’s fair to question whether he’s truly at full speed or not — and that’s something that won’t become truly apparent until we see him in game action, there’s no question how the Chiefs view him . . .

So, How Should We View Rice?

There are two factors in play here for fantasy managers: How deep your bench is and how you’ve constructed your roster. 

When the suspension was announced, I initially ranked Rice at WR45. I immediately questioned that.

Once you see him as a WR4-level play, why not rank him WR37?

After all, Jason Wood, who leads the projections team at Footballguys, has Rice as WR15 on a points per game basis.

If you’ve started your draft with a pair of strong receivers — or even three strong receivers and you have solid pieces in place at running back and perhaps even tight end . . .

In Rounds 7 or 8, why not take the swing on Rice — if you have the room on your roster? 

That last aspect shouldn’t be overlooked.

Managers in leagues with small benches might have trouble working around Rice if injuries hit early, so investing that level of draft capital in a player who won’t be available until Week 7 at the earliest could be problematic . . .

If Not Rice, Which Chief?

What if you miss out on Rice? Or, if you prefer to avoid him?

Who then is the Kansas City receiver of choice?

While Travis Kelce is a fair answer, let’s stick with wideouts. 

If we do, I’m going with the obvious choice: Xavier Worthy.

Aside from the fact that his production spiked from Week 13 on last season, Worthy cemented his upside by setting a rookie Super Bowl record with 157 yards and two touchdowns. Reid has described him as a “primary receiver,” and the offseason bore that out. 

As our own Maurile Tremblay pointed out in the Footballguys 2025 Draft Guide, Mahomes has talked about returning to the deep-strike explosiveness that relies heavily on Worthy’s 4.21-second speed, something the offense has lacked since Tyreek Hill‘s departure.

Beyond that, the Chiefs kept eight receivers — Rice, Worthy, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, Nikko Remigio, Jason Brownlee, and rookie Jalen Royals.

For me, Brown is the only one that merits draft capital; the rest seem unlikely to be relevant in redraft leagues . . .

Wait . . . We’ve Seen This Before

The Dolphins don’t expect to have Jaylen Wright for their season opener, but they are optimistic about De’Von Achane.

“All indications for us are that he will be ready Week 1 to go,” general manager Chris Grier said of Achane on Thursday.

Achane injured his calf in an August 13 practice, and the Dolphins didn’t provide a timeline for his return. Head coach Mike McDaniel called it “more preventative in nature” at the time, which sounds encouraging, but . . .

It Definitely Rings A Bell

Remember that time when the San Francisco 49ers told us their star running back, Christian McCaffrey, would be fine for Week 1?

Of course you do. It was this time last year. 

McCaffrey had dealt with a calf and Achilles injury since the early days of training camp, with head coach Kyle Shanahan announcing the ailments on Aug. 6. Shanahan said then that McCaffrey would be out for a couple of weeks and not participate in the preseason. 

The expectation, though, was that the star running back would be able to get back in time for the team’s regular-season opener, a Monday night tilt with the New York Jets.

Despite working on a limited basis in practice all week, McCaffrey told reporters the Friday before kickoff that he had no doubt that he would play. He even said he was hopeful he would get his usual heavy workload.  

General manager John Lynch told KNBR radio that morning that McCaffrey would “be out there and ready to roll.”

Instead, McCaffrey was ruled out 90 minutes before kickoff. Two weeks later, he was placed on injured reserve . . . 

Lesson Learned

So it’s not only fair to question what the Dolphins are telling us here, it’s necessary. 

First of all, as the Niners and McCaffrey came to learn, calf injuries are tricky. Adding to that, as Footballguys Cecil Lammey reminded us earlier this week, Achane is a speed back so a calf injury might have an even greater impact on his game.

Nonetheless, the Dolphins continue to express confidence in his status and availability, and the upside is there. 

In two seasons, Achane has 411 touches for 2,496 yards and 23 touchdowns.

Waldman believes Achane has become a proven big-play runner with enough down-to-down efficiency and volume to earn consideration as a top-10 fantasy talent. But injuries and lackluster offensive line play limited his ceiling last year.

Sounds like they could again this season. 

For that reason, Waldman believes Achane has the widest range of possible outcomes among the top 10-12 backs this season. 

One additional issue for me: Achane had 87 targets in the passing game last year, the second-most among RBs; it’s fair to wonder if rebounds by Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa are potentially limiting factors. 

But before we worry about limitations, we need Achane to get on the field. We’ll be watching practices next week very closely and with a skeptical eye.

If Achane is a surprise inactive, Ollie Gordon II is the only other healthy tailback on the roster — although the team signed Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMycal Hasty to the practice squad last week . . .

Low-Key Concerns

Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers doesn’t think the back injury that caused him to miss the final two preseason games and 12 days earlier this month will be a problem going forward.

“A minor thing,” Nabers said Wednesday of the back problem.

Of course, as ESPN.com’s Jordan Raanan suggested, it’s been a cautious offseason for Nabers. He sat out the spring with a toe injury stemming from last season and his college days. He also left a practice early in camp after landing hard on his shoulder.

But he returned in a mostly full capacity as camp wound down, and none of this should affect him in Week 1 when the Giants play on the road against the Commanders.

“Yeah, I feel like I’m always ready,” Nabers said. “When it’s game time and those lights are on, I believe my body’s going to turn it on. It’s going to be ready.”

I recently talked to GiantInsider.com’s Chris Bisignano, and he’s buying into Nabers’ view — which syncs up with what Raanan and almost every other local observer has written . . . 

There’s Not A Lot of Concern Here

Specifically, Bisignano told me that team officials are not worried about the health issues and the Giants expect Nabers to build on last year’s success. 

Fantasy investors are, too.

Nabers is New York’s clear-cut No. 1 receiver. He led the NFL last year, averaging 11.3 targets per game while catching 109 passes for 1,204 yards with seven touchdowns. He did that despite missing a pair of games with a concussion. The first-round pick also dealt with a litany of minor injuries that cost him time in practice, but not in the games.

Nabers’ success this season might rely on his relationship with new quarterback Russell Wilson. It’s early, but . . .

So Far, So Good

According to Raanan, they spent time together this offseason, including when the receiver was part of a group that visited Wilson in San Diego, and it showed with instant chemistry this summer.

“We’ve been on the same page a lot,” Nabers said of his chemistry with Wilson. “That connection is going to keep growing. It can never be as great as we want it to be, but it’s going to be as good as we hope it’s going to be.”

That’s been demonstrated on the field.

Nabers led the Giants’ receivers in catches during training camp practices despite missing significant time. Wilson wasn’t shy about getting him the ball.

It only reiterated to Wilson what to expect from his top receiver this season.

“I think he’s going to have a great year,” Wilson said. “I think the best part about him is obviously he’s a threat down the field, but he’s also a threat anytime he touches the ball, whether it’s in the short game, midrange game, all the different things he can do.”

Nabers has his eyes on Week 1 now. Nothing physically makes him think he won’t be ready. According to Raanan, the wideout was running fine during the portion of this past Wednesday’s practice open to the media.

At this point, Nabers’ concentration is on the results, not his health. And this is starting to feel like one of those stories that won’t be a story at all in November . . .

Other Big Names With Small Worries

For what it’s worth, Vikings superstar Justin Jefferson, who returned from a hamstring issue two weeks ago, and Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown, who’s dealt with a tight hammy of his own in recent weeks, also seem to be on track to start and play as usual Week 1 . . .

Sudden Uncertainty?