Estimated reading time: 30 minutes
In an ideal world, every NFL skill player will match their best season or outperform it in 2025. Unfortunately, we know that won’t happen, making fantasy football projections a tough job.
It often stems from regression. The root could be age, injury concerns or some combination of the three. However, once a player becomes a household name, their average draft position doesn’t fall as far as it should, making them a player to avoid. Every player listed here is one that I wouldn’t select until at least a full round after their current ADP.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Saturday, August 30
TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 2.05)
Brock Bowers joined the Las Vegas Raiders and immediately became the league’s top fantasy tight end. He led all tight ends in receptions and receiving yards as a rookie, resulting in the most fantasy points. Both Trey McBride and George Kittle missed games and finished slightly ahead of Bowers in fantasy points per game. His 88.4 receiving grade also finished third among tight ends, behind Kittle and McBride.
He became more of a part of the offense as the season progressed. He played less than 70% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps in the first three weeks. Once Week 8 hit, he played a minimum of 85% of their offensive snaps every week for the rest of the season. He had three games of double-digit targets over the second half of the season, and both of his 100-yard performances occurred during the season’s second half.
Bowers is relatively small for a tight end at 230 pounds. Dalton Kincaid, Chigoziem Okonkwo and Juwan Johnson are also tight ends under 240 pounds, and all of them have had issues around playing time during their career. The fact that Bowers played so much was huge for his fantasy production.
Bowers returns to a tight end room with Michael Mayer. There were some trade rumors around Mayer this offseason, but nothing has materialized to this point. The Raiders also added Ian Thomas from the Carolina Panthers, and one of them will be the run-blocking tight end in two tight-end sets. Both Mayer and Thomas have graded better than Bowers as run blockers over the last two seasons, which is unsurprising given Bowers’ size.
Mayer played 20 snaps with the Raiders starters during the preseason compared to 11 by Bowers. They primarily played in 11 personnel, outside of sharing the field for two goal-line snaps. The two split snaps on first downs, with Mayer taking all of the second downs, and Bowers taking most of the third downs. While we can expect the Raiders to use a lot more 12 personnel in the regular season, this usage is still concerning.
If we assume a 60% rate of early down 11 personnel snaps for Browers, that would be roughly 19 fewer routes for him this season, and at his 0.44 fantasy points per route, that would be a decrease in 0.49 fantasy points per game. Last season, 0.3 points per game was the difference between TE1 and TE3. In this case, that’s enough to move Bowers below McBride and Kittle in my rankings, but still far ahead of all other tight ends. There has been little reason to change opinions on McBride, and the longer the 49ers’ starting wide receivers are out with no update, the better Kittle’s potential looks.
This change is amplified in my rankings because my rankings also take into account where you should be picking players. I no longer believe you should be considering Bowers in the second round when you can pick McBride or Kittle in the third round. I still think it’s important to land a top-three tight end, given the landscape at the position relative to other positions. This has moved McBride and Kittle up to ensure that you land a top tight end. This is a relatively small change in projected performance, but such changes often lead to significant shifts in the rankings, as the gap between closely ranked players is typically small.
You can find a more detailed breakdown on why you should avoid Bowers in the second round here.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 2.06)
Jonathan Taylor was the 41st overall selection of the 2020 NFL Draft. While he was the third running back off the board, many dynasty managers made the right decision in picking him over Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift. The Colts eased him into action as a rookie with a 50% snap rate. In 2021, he was the clear best running back in the league. He led the league in rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns. He earned the most fantasy points and points per game regardless of league format, an Associated Press first-team All-Pro and was PFF’s highest graded running back. No other running back has ever accomplished all of that in the same season.
Taylor hasn’t been nearly as effective over the last three seasons. Taylor’s 73.7 rushing grade during the previous three years is tied for 43rd-best among the 49 running backs with 300 or more carries. The running backs tied with him or lower include Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams and Dalvin Cook, who are unsigned free agents, and Zack Moss, Rachaad White and Javonte Williams. The other three running backs below a 76.0 rushing grade are also expected to be backups this year.
Part of Taylor’s problem has been injury, where he’s missed at least three games in the last three years. He’s been listed with an ankle injury on the injury report in November 2020, October 2022, November 2022, October 2023 and October 2024. Throughout his career, he’s also been listed with thumb, ankle, toe, rib, knee and shoulder injuries.
Taylor’s role was larger last season than in other recent seasons, but the Colts brought in a new backup this season. Fifth-round rookie D.J. Giddens quickly moved his way to second on the depth chart and will be Taylor’s primary backup this season. An 88.7% snap rate is exceptionally high for a modern-day running back with an extensive injury history. Chances are, Giddens will at least somewhat cut into Taylor’s playing time, making his playing time on early downs a little more reasonable. Tyler Goodson remains on the roster as well, and he should take some of the third-down snaps. The Colts appear fully committed to Taylor being the feature back, but he may lose some volume, which could also help his efficiency.
Taylor has mixed high volume with inefficient play. Usually, this is the recipe for a big decline in fantasy production. However, Taylor has a high rate of big plays, the trust of the coaching staff, and an excellent 2021 season, so there is always a chance he returns to that form. Taylor is a fine top-15 fantasy option, with a decent chance to finish in the top 10, and an outside chance to return to the league’s elite.
WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 3.06)
Hill is a future Hall-of-Fame receiver who made an All-Decade team and five first-team All-Pro teams and with a Super Bowl ring. In 2023, his best season, he racked up 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns. He finished second in fantasy points per game and was an early first-round pick in redraft leagues in 2024. However, he wasn’t nearly as effective.
His routes per game figure was up in 2023, but his target rate was down 13 percentage points, leading to fewer yards per route run and EPA. Part of this could have been injury-related. He showed up on the injury report with a foot injury in late October before dealing with a wrist injury in November, December and early January. Reports after the season indicated the wrist injury had lingered since training camp, and he had multiple surgeries this offseason.
Hill also dealt with hip, foot, hand, ankle and wrist injuries in 2023. He was great in Week 1 with seven receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. Then, Tua Tagovailoa suffered an injury in Week 2, so Hill had only one game when both he and his starting quarterback were fully healthy. It would be understandable that he was getting less separation if he was dealing with a leg injury all season, but it was a wrist injury causing him problems, which shouldn’t impact his separation much.
Hill’s entire game is built on speed, and at 31 years old, it would be understandable if he just doesn’t have the same quickness as earlier in his career. Perhaps injuries caused most of Hill’s problems last season, and he can rebound. Despite the down season, he still ranks first among wide receivers in targets per route (0.293), yards per route (2.88) and PPR points per route (0.593) over the past three seasons.
Hill’s usage has been consistent throughout his time in Miami, a Z receiver who can play significant snaps from the slot. His deep target rate notably declined and his contested target rate increased last season, further hinting that something other than his wrist was a problem.
Hill’s primary competition for targets remains nearly identical to 2024, led by wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back De’Von Achane. The Dolphins traded away Jonnu Smith and added Darren Waller. Smith and Achane provided more competition for targets compared to other recent seasons, contributing to Hill’s decreased targets. Waller will likely see fewer targets than Smith, but Waller is still more competition for targets at tight end than Hill was used to in 2022 and 2023.
Hill, at his best, is an elite option in fantasy football, but we didn’t see him at his best last season. It’s possible that a wrist injury and injuries to Tua Tagovailoa derailed his season and are a thing of the past. However, a lower separation rate, a lower deep target rate and a higher contested target rate suggest the 31-year-old receiver isn’t the same player he once was.
He is more likely to disappoint fantasy managers than not, but the chance of getting a top-two fantasy wide receiver in Round 4 or later will be too good for some fantasy managers to pass up.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets (ADP: 4.08)
Hall was expected to take a step forward in 2024, another year removed from his 2022 injury, but it was largely much of the same. He ran the ball the same amount per game for the same number of total touchdowns. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Hall was less involved in the passing game than in previous seasons. He also fumbled six times total after doing so three times over the previous two seasons combined.
While Hall has displayed up-and-down play, at times, his career 3.4 yards after contact per attempt average is the best among running backs over the past three seasons. He has one of the more extreme splits in how well he plays on perfectly blocked runs compared to not, going from 8.6 yards per attempt to 3.0. The problem is that he has seen fewer perfectly blocked runs than most backs. He also has an extreme split, playing better on gap runs than zone, but he has run more on zone plays.
For most of last season, Hall played around 75% of New York’s offensive snaps. He played notably more than last season, but rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis received significant attention after strong performances. Hall was the lowest-graded running back of the three.
The Jets’ new coaching staff has been adamant this offseason that they plan on using all three running backs. That played out in the preseason. In the first game, Hall logged five of 10 snaps with the starters, with Allen playing two and Davis three. In the second game with Davis out, he played 11 of 18 snaps with the starters. This suggests a substantial drop in playing time. He also didn’t play on third downs in either game, with Davis taking third-down snaps in the first game and Allen taking them in the second.
If this split in playing time stands, it will lead to a substantial decrease in volume for Hall. Because Allen seems to be taking short-yardage snaps and Davis passing-down snaps, Hall will simply be an early-down back. Allen and Davis are also capable of playing on early downs. If one of the two starts playing better in normal early-down situations, then Hall could get phased out of the offense even further.
New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn brought former Detroit Lions passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand with him to New York. It’s his first year leading an offense, so we don’t know how much he will deviate from Ben Johnson’s play calling. It is very easy to picture Allen taking the David Montgomery role in this offense while Hall takes the Jahmyr Gibbs role. The Jets will need to have a good offense for Hall to have any chance of matching Gibbs’ value.
New York deployed zone runs at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL last season, while the Lions ranked sixth. Hall plays better in gap schemes than zone, which could help explain why the Jets could be open to trading him. Most of the potential teams that need a running back are also expected to use a high zone run rate, but the Washington Commanders are the notable exception. Both Allen and Davis played better on zone runs last season.
A big difference in this offense compared to the Lions’ is that New York has Justin Fields at quarterback. He runs much more than Jared Goff and will also take more sacks. Generally, rushing quarterbacks tend to hurt the value of receiving running backs because they will scramble rather than check down, at times. This means Hall’s receiving production is unlikely to bounce back with Fields, regardless of his playing time.
Hall’s past rushing and receiving production make him a potential top-five fantasy running back. Still, it’s very difficult to predict exactly what his role will be in the Jets’ new offense, and there is a possibility that he will primarily be a receiving back while the other two younger players take a lot of the carries.
That all puts Hall outside of the top 10 running backs by ADP and makes him one of the biggest high-risk, high-reward options among the running backs from pick Nos. 11-20 by ADP.
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 5.11)
Kelce is arguably the best receiving tight end in NFL history. He barely played in his rookie season, but he finished eighth in fantasy points per game in his second campaign. From 2016 to 2022, he was consistently gaining at least 1,000 receiving yards and making the Associated Press’ All-Pro team. He finished first or second in PPR points per game in every season during that seven-year period.
His first signs of decline were in 2021, when his PFF receiving grade was the third lowest of his career. He had consistently played at least 85% of his team’s offensive snaps each year, but his playing time dipped below 80% in his last five regular-season games. His playing time declined again in 2022, falling under 80% on average through the season.
His fantasy value jumped up thanks to a historic season in the red zone. He was thrown at 18 times when the Chiefs were within single-digit yards of scoring, which was the most for a tight end in a season in PFF’s history. He caught 13 passes, while no one else had more than nine, leading to eight of his 12 touchdowns that season. In each of the past two seasons, Kelce has seen eight targets in the same situation, and many have come outside of the end zone.
In 2023, Kelce’s yards per game, yards per route run, target rate and PFF receiving grade all declined; yet, he still tied for first in fantasy points per game. In 2024, all of those numbers outside of his target rate declined again. This time, he dropped to seventh in fantasy points per game. His biggest problems were after the catch. He averaged 15.7 avoided tackles per game from 2014 to 2023, finishing with 17 in 2023, which dropped to four in 2024. He averaged at least seven yards after the catch per catch early in his career and 5.0 to 6.2 in the middle-to-late parts of his career, but that fell to 3.5 last season.
However, he played 84.4% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps, the most for him in a season since 2020.
The Chiefs have invested in tight ends recently. Noah Gray played significant snaps last season, but that was more due to injuries at wide receiver rather than anything to do with Kelce. Once the team traded for DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown returned from injury, Gray’s role in the offense diminished.
The bigger concern for Kelce is the Chiefs’ wide receiver room. Rashee Rice was the focal point of the offense over the first three weeks last season before he suffered a season-ending injury early in Week 4. Kelce was held to eight receptions for 69 yards over the first three weeks of last season, and those were three of his worst seven games of the regular season. Xavier Worthy started to step up late in 2024, especially in the Chiefs’ last two playoff games, when Kelce notched a combined six receptions for 58 yards. Brown will be the third wide receiver, and he should be healthier this season than last, allowing him to be more involved.
The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been as good over the past two seasons, partly because Kelce isn’t playing as well, but there is a chance the team can bounce back with a better wide receiver room. Kelce saw only one end-zone target last season when the Chiefs were within 10 yards of scoring. If they have more drives near the end zone and more receiving options that defenses have to worry about, Kelce may not be the focus of defenses, leading to more targets and more touchdowns.
Kelce’s quality of play has declined each of the past two seasons, and he will be 36 years old by the end of the 2025 campaign. His target share could decline, but he might also score more touchdowns this season to remain a fantasy starter.
TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 6.08)
This past season was abnormal for Mark Andrews. His playing time dipped to 61.4% on the season, which included four games with his time below 50%. His routes per game significantly declined, leading his receiving yards per game to also decline. However, he graded better than in other recent seasons with more positively graded plays per route and a career-low in drops, along with his second season without a fumble. He didn’t score a touchdown in his first five games, but he managed to score 11 touchdowns in the last 12 games.
Andrews finished 14th among tight ends in receptions, ninth in yards and first in touchdowns. His 0.52 receiving touchdowns per game are the most among tight ends since 2024.
The Ravens utilized a unique but predictable tight end rotation throughout the 2024 season. Andrews and Isaiah Likely split time in 11 personnel, as Andrews played 64% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps and Likely took the other 36%. In 12 personnel, it was Andrews and Likely 95% of the time as the duo. In 21 personnel, it was mostly Charlie Kolar, while Andrews took 36% of the snaps. The Ravens used more 22 personnel than the rest of the league, and that was Likely and Kolar over 84% of the time, while Andrews rarely mixed in.
Kolar missed Weeks 13-17, so Andrews played more snaps and had two of his top three games in receiving yards on the season. He scored every week that Kolar missed. Andrews has been the subject of trade rumors during the offseason, given his age, the young tight ends on the Ravens roster, and his drop at the end of the Ravens’ final playoff game. However, after no trade materialized during the NFL draft, trade speculation has died down. If Likely starts outplaying Andrews, the trade speculation may increase during the season.
Andrews will be 30 years old by the start of the season, so the Ravens’ 11 personnel could become more of a 50-50 split.
It’s also worth noting that Andrews should be in store for some touchdown regression based on his personnel usage. Nine of Andrews’ 11 touchdowns occurred when the Ravens were more than five yards away from scoring. That wasn’t just the most by a tight end in 2024, but the most by one since 2018 when Eric Ebron had 11. No tight end in the PFF era had eight or more of these touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, while Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski and Vernon Davis are the only tight ends with multiple seasons with eight or more longer touchdowns in their career.
Nearly 35% of receiving touchdowns by tight ends occur when teams are within five yards of scoring, yet both Likely and Kolar had more offensive snaps than Andrews when the team was within five yards of scoring because they are more likely to use 21 or 22 personnel at that part of the field.
Andrews’ fantasy value might hinge on the quality of the defense. The Ravens had the seventh-best team grade for a defense in the regular season with the ninth-fewest points allowed. Baltimore made a few additions in free agency, and their focus in the draft was on defense. Andrews’ fantasy value depends on the Ravens defense not playing as well, so that games remain closer. Andrews played 50% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps when Baltimore had a lead compared to 65% when they were tied or 66% when playing from behind. If the Ravens’ defense gets better, that could be detrimental to Andrews’ fantasy value.
Andrews remains one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL, but between the Ravens’ run game and other strong tight ends on the roster, Andrews’ fantasy value could be minimal. Touchdown regression is likely, so he would either need a larger role or a trade in order to remain one of the top-six fantasy tight ends.
QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (ADP: 6.10)
Nix was the 12th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. He beat out Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in training camp to be the Denver Broncos’ Week 1 starter. He was off to a slow start, throwing one touchdown pass over the first four weeks and earning a sub-50.0 PFF offensive grade in three of four games. He was QB22 over those first four weeks, but QB5 over the rest of the season.
He averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns per game over his last 13 games, which was a big part of his success from a fantasy perspective. He only achieved 300 passing yards in two games, and he needed a completion percentage of over 80% in order to reach that many passing yards. He posted three games over the second half of the year with an 80.0-plus PFF passing grade, finishing another three games in the 70.0s. This meant he also had some bad games, which is to be expected for a rookie. His 72.8 passing grade ranked seventh best among the 17 rookies with at least 500 snaps in their rookie season. His passing grade was better than fellow rookies Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
It’s fair to expect Nix’s touchdowns per game to regress while his quality of play improves, leading to more passing yards per game.
Nix was greatly helped by having the highest graded offensive line in terms of pass protection. The entire line played at least 800 snaps and at least 13 games. Left tackle Garett Bolles had a great rookie season in 2017 and has generally improved as his career has progressed. Center Luke Wattenberg and right guard Quinn Meinerz took notable steps forward in 2024. Nix had an 85.0 passing grade when kept clean and a 39.8 passing grade under pressure. If Nix takes a step back in his second season, it would likely be from injuries to the offensive line.
WR Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 8.05)
Cooper Kupp spent the first eight years of his NFL career with the Los Angeles Rams. He finished as WR4 in 2019 and scored 439.5 PPR points in 2021, which was the most by a wide receiver in a season in NFL history. He got off to a great start in 2022, averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game through nine outings, which was the most by any wide receiver that season, before suffering a season-ending high ankle sprain that required surgery.
In August of 2023, he suffered a hamstring injury, which cost him the first four games of the 2023 season. His absence allowed fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua to establish himself as a new top wide receiver in the NFL, as he logged at least 115 receiving yards in three of those four games.
Kupp immediately reestablished himself with 118 yards and 148 yards in his first two games back from injury. He followed that with a six-game stretch of averaging 28 yards per game while Nacua shone. Kupp recorded 115 and 111 yards in the following two games and closed the season out by averaging 35 yards over three games. This left Kupp with the abnormal split of finishing as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver for one-third of his games but outside the top 48 wide receivers for another one-third of his games.
Kupp’s 2024 season was more of the same. He suffered another ankle injury, costing him five games. He was similarly elite in one-third of his games and lackluster in another one-third, but this time, the games were more centralized. He gained at least 80 receiving yards in the first four contests of the season, in which he played at least 60% of offensive snaps. However, he was held to fewer than 30 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.
Through the ups and downs, Kupp has been one of the top fantasy receivers of the past five years. He’s been targeted on 26.5% of his routes (third best), and 19.6% of his routes have resulted in a reception (second best).
The soon-to-be 32-year-old’s numbers notably declined in several areas last season. His single-coverage open-target rate decreased, resulting in more of his targets being contested. He avoided tackles less frequently. His PFF receiving grade has dropped over the past two seasons, and his NGS tracking top speeds have also been down compared to earlier in his career.
The Rams released Kupp after the 2024 season, opting to eat $22 million in dead cap money. Los Angeles’ desire to move on from him despite the dead cap, his history with the team and his character says a lot about what the front office perceives his quality of play to be at this point.
Following his release from the Rams, Kupp signed a three-year contract with the Seattle Seahawks, where he joins a completely reworked wide receiver room. Kupp has been a slot receiver throughout his career, and all of his stats from recent seasons mirror a typical slot receiver. He’s best against zone coverage when he’s not pressed and in the slot. But he struggles when pressed and isn’t as good against man coverage.
He pairs with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has also been a receiver with a low average target depth and a low deep target rate from the slot. This will make it somewhat awkward for the two to coexist. Seattle also spent a fifth-round pick on rookie Tory Horton, who can play on the outside.
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has bounced around with four teams in the past four seasons, but has established a few trends, including using three-wide receiver sets at a low rate. He was with the New Orleans Saints last season, who were an extreme example after injuries to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. The San Francisco 49ers, with whom he coached in 2023, have generally been an extreme example, too, throughout Kyle Shanahan’s time with the team. However, the trend has still been true for Kubiak’s other landing spots.
This means Smith-Njigba and Kupp will play out wide more than usual. If Seattle uses three-wide receiver sets only 50% of the time and the two split the slot snaps evenly, both could line up in the slot for roughly 25% of their snaps. Kupp’s yards-per-route-run figure has been lower out wide compared to the slot, which could lead to a decrease in his per-route production.
Kubiak’s offenses haven’t had a clear slot receiver in the past, with a lot of players typically sharing the role. Jerry Jeudy was the only wide receiver to surpass 500 yards out of the slot (519) in a Kubiak offense over the past four seasons, while Kupp racked up 509 of his yards from the slot last season compared to 201 out wide. It’s unlikely the Seahawks can account for both of Kupp’s strengths and Smith-Njigba’s strengths in a new offense. It’s more likely that Kupp will need to adjust to Kubiak’s offense. The limited time Kupp and Smith-Njigba played in the preseason also suggests a rotation in the slot.
One concern is that Kubiak’s offenses have relied a lot on the run game, and that will likely be the case for the Seahawks. Kubiak may want the best run-blocking wide receivers on the field for some early-down plays. Kupp’s 60.3 PFF run-blocking grade over the past two seasons ranks 12th, which is the best mark on the roster. He could see a lot of playing time on early downs, partially as a blocker, and then have to take some time off during three-receiver sets. While he’s typically played a very high snap rate, that might no longer be the case at his age.
Kubiak’s offenses have also featured low target rates for wide receivers. Seattle has a strong running back room and just invested a second-round pick in tight end Elijah Arroyo. The team’s offenses in recent years have been run-heavy, but the wide receivers were always the focal point of the passing game. The wide receivers who have produced in Kubiak’s offenses have generally had an average depth of target above 12 yards — notably higher than Smith-Njigba’s and Kupp’s figures last season. One exception was Adam Thielen, who was WR28 in 2021. The other was Deebo Samuel, who was WR15 in 2023 (but WR34 when ignoring his rushing production).
The Seahawks added quarterback Sam Darnold in free agency and drafted rookie signal-caller Jalen Milroe. Both throw deep at high rates, which, if anything, is good news for Valdes-Scantling, who also has experience with Kubiak with the Saints last season. Kupp was at his best with Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles, and this season could be a step down from his usual production.
Kupp has a lot working against him at this point in his career, joining a Seattle Seahawks offense that he might not be well-suited for. However, there were multiple times over the past two years where it seemed like things were over for him and then he put together several 100-yard games.
RB Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 7.05)
Johnson was a backup to Leshon Williams during his first two seasons at Iowa, playing predominantly in short-yardage situations. Johnson’s numbers weren’t all that impressive in 2023, but he earned the starting job over Williams by the start of the 2024 season. Williams entered the transfer portal after the first three weeks of the season, allowing Johnson to play an even higher percentage of the offensive snaps.
Johnson was very impressive as a runner in his one season as a starter, averaging over 125 rushing yards per game. His rate of hitting big runs was among the best in the league. He ranks among the top 25 fastest running backs in the FBS from the last eight seasons, according to PFF’s tracking data, despite a below-average 4.57-second 40-yard dash at the combine. Johnson had the highest rate of zone plays among those running backs, but his quality of play in both zone and gap concepts was relatively similar. Johnson depended more on ideal situations than most running backs, dominating more than nearly every other running back on perfectly blocked plays. Still, he was only average compared to FBS backs on non-perfectly blocked plays.
While Johnson posts a respectable 86.3 career rushing grade, that is the lowest among the top 11 rookie running backs by consensus rankings. That was mainly due to his relatively average grades throughout 2023. He also has the least experience as a receiver, with just 36 total targets. He gained 63 receiving yards in his final collegiate game against Nebraska but was held to 10 receiving yards or fewer in nine of his 12 games.
Johnson only projects to be a two-down back in the NFL. Along with his lack of experience catching passes, he struggled as a pass protector. Johnson is athletically gifted enough to become a three-down back at some point in his career, but it’s unlikely to happen as a rookie.
He was selected by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have one of the best third-down backs in the NFL in Jaylen Warren, whose snap rate on early downs has slowly but steadily improved from 25.2% as a rookie to 35.8% in 2023 and 37.2% over the last six weeks of last season once he was healthy. Warren seemed destined for an even larger role on early downs in 2025 thanks to his strong play and Najee Harris‘ departure.
The Steelers also added Kenneth Gainwell in free agency. While this didn’t seem like a major threat to Johnson’s playing time when he was drafted, Gainwell consistently played ahead of Johnson in the preseason. In the one game Warren played, Warren played on early downs, and Gainwell took the field on third downs, while Johnson did not play until they were both done. While we can expect Johnson to earn playing time as the season progresses, he would likely be in a three-man rotation rather than the two-man rotation most were expecting. The Steelers’ use of Warren as the early-down back also complicates matters.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 9.09)
In 2021, Prescott dealt with a calf injury that caused him to miss a game, but he still managed 20.7 fantasy points per game. In 2022, a thumb injury on his throwing hand led to missed games and dwindling fantasy production. His 17.8 points per game that season ranked second lowest in his career, as did his 68.6 PFF passing grade. In 2023, Prescott didn’t miss a game and was never on the injury report. His fantasy points per game rebounded to 20.8, fifth best among quarterbacks. His PFF passing grade was a career high, too.
Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury after eight games of the 2024 season. However, before that point, he wasn’t playing nearly as well. His 15.8 points per game and 67.2 PFF passing grade were both career lows. His accuracy plummeted, leading to an increase in turnover-worthy plays. While his dropbacks per game rose, both his yards and touchdowns per game declined. His rushing production further dropped, as well.
Despite the relatively poor play in 2024, Prescott has averaged two big-time throws per game over the past two seasons — the second-best mark among quarterbacks.
Prescott has generally benefited from a favorable schedule in recent seasons. Fifteen of his 37 games have been against teams in the top eight in allowing fantasy points per game to quarterbacks that season. He has averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game against those opponents. In his 22 games against the rest of the league, he has averaged 15.1 points per game.
The Cowboys’ 2025 schedule appears to be much more difficult this season. They face a top-10 defense in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks in nine of their 17 games, and there are only two games against opponents in the top 10 at allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. While many defenses are likely to change in quality from 2024 to 2025, facing the NFC North and AFC West for eight non-conference games will be a significant challenge.
The Cowboys moved on from Mike McCarthy and elevated Brian Schottenheimer from offensive coordinator to head coach. Schottenheimer’s offenses have always ranked better in rushing yards than passing yards, outside of two seasons where the offense was nearly even.
Prescott has seen his scramble rate, designed run rate and average depth of target decrease in recent seasons, and it wouldn’t be surprising if those trends continue. His season-ending hamstring injury last year makes it unlikely that any of his run-game numbers will increase.
Dallas’ offensive line has generally declined in recent years, which has likely played a part in Prescott’s worse play. In 2021, the Cowboys had the third-highest-graded run-blocking line. They were average in 2022 and 2023, and fell to 23rd in 2024. The Cowboys drafted Tyler Booker in the first round to replace retired Zack Martin. Otherwise, the line remains the same as last year. Ideally, the unit will improve due to following the Cowboys’ significant investments over the past few seasons. However, it’s more realistic that it returns to an average performance level.
While Prescott has the upside of a top-five fantasy quarterback when everything is going right, a lot is working against him, including a recent injury history, poor play last season while healthy, a young offensive line and a much more daunting schedule than recent years.
Prescott remains a potential fantasy starter in superflex leagues, but in single-quarterback leagues, several young, high-upside options make more sense as a backup option.
