Once Thursday Night Football lived up to the hype, we should have known: Week 14 was primed to be a special one.
My goodness, did it deliver.
Scoring was sky-high across the league, and we saw some massive fantasy-point totals in a bunch of spots.
We’re going to dissect what it all means going forward here, running through the key injuries before diving into role changes, usage notes, and much more to recap everything you need to know about a chaotic slate.
All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A “deep” target here is a target more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Key Injuries to Track Entering Week 15
Isaac Guerendo
Isaac Guerendo spoke to the media after the game Sunday, something players typically don’t do if they have a serious injury. That — added with Kyle Shanahan calling it likely a foot sprain — means he may have escaped with a minor ding. But given the San Francisco 49ers‘ luck this year, we can’t exhale until we get full confirmation.
Guerendo’s usage before the injury was great. He turned 15 carries and 2 targets into 128 yards from scrimmage. If he is able to go in Week 15, you can continue to fire him up with confidence.
If not, Patrick Taylor would be the next man up. He outsnapped Ke’Shawn Vaughn, 32.8% to 4.9%, and handled 7 carries to Vaughn’s 2.
I’d expect Israel Abanikanda to be active if Guerendo were out, and with Taylor’s career high for carries being 11, both Abanikanda and Vaughn would likely get some early-down work. But Taylor would be the lead pass-catcher and has done well with the opportunities he has gotten in the NFL, so he’s a waiver add and someone I’d at least be receptive to without Guerendo.
Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving‘s back injury — which held him out of practice this week and most of Week 14 — doesn’t sound too serious. If he does miss more time, we should be high on Rachaad White.
White played 74.6% of the snaps on Sunday. He turned his 17 carries and 3 targets into 109 yards from scrimmage while handling 3 of 5 red-zone chances.
From strictly a usage perspective, that’s about as good as it gets.
White has been solid enough as a rusher this year, even if he hasn’t been as prolific as Irving. He checks all three boxes for fantasy — early-down, passing-game, goal-line work — and he’s in a good offense. If Irving has to sit in Week 15, fire up White in all formats with confidence.
Derek Carr
Derek Carr tried to leap for a first down late for the New Orleans Saints, but he wound up potentially fracturing his left hand and winding up in concussion protocol.
Things were already tough for the Saints with so many playmakers sidelined. Not having Carr would just amplify that tenfold.
For the season, Carr has averaged 0.20 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire’s EPA metric) per drop back. That’s well above the league average.
Spencer Rattler was at -0.33 in place of Carr, and Jake Haener is at -0.05 on 32 drop backs. Either way, it’s a massive downgrade.
The pass-catchers were barely in play to begin with. You can cross them off if Carr sits.
We should also be skittish with Alvin Kamara. He averaged just 70 yards from scrimmage in 3 games without Carr, and his snap rate decreased to 69.7% Sunday with Kendre Miller back off of IR. Miller looked good enough to keep earning snaps, as well.
You’d still start Kamara in every season-long league, but you’d have to downgrade expectations significantly, and I can’t see a lot of scenarios where I’d want him in DFS.
Jonathon Brooks
Jonathon Brooks suffered a non-contact knee injury Sunday and will undergo further testing to determine the severity of it. It’s one of those spots where you cross your fingers and hope for the best.
With Brooks out — and Raheem Blackshear also leaving due to injury — Chuba Hubbard played 97.1% of the snaps. He finished with 26 carries and 5 targets for 107 yards from scrimmage.
The yardage for Hubbard hasn’t been great this year, but his other usage marks will be tough to match down the stretch. Given the Carolina Panthers are still fighting hard, we can have the utmost confidence in Hubbard in all formats.
Aidan O’Connell
I thought Aidan O’Connell played well for the Las Vegas Raiders last week, which makes the knee injury he suffered Sunday an even bigger bummer.
Desmond Ridder took over and was at least able to move the ball. Ridder has averaged -0.14 Passing NEP per drop back in a couple stints of mop-up duty this year, down from O’Connell’s mark of 0.00. However, he hasn’t gotten a full week to prepare as starter, so we shouldn’t hold that against him. With the Atlanta Falcons last year, Ridder was at 0.01.
Thus, I don’t view Ridder as a massive downgrade from O’Connell. It’s definitely not ideal, but we can treat most pieces here the same as we have.
It’s worth noting for Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers, though, that Michael Mayer jumped to life on Sunday. He had nine targets, up from a previous high this year of three. Meyers had 10 targets while Bowers had just 5.
Mayer is talented, played a bunch of snaps, and won’t draw as much defensive attention as Bowers. Thus, I’m fine viewing him as the third pass-catching option on the team. I just wouldn’t overreact with Meyers and Bowers; they’re still players we can feel pretty solid about.
Will Dissly
The Los Angeles Chargers were already thin at pass-catcher with Ladd McConkey sidelined. It got worse Sunday as Will Dissly hurting his shoulder and not returning.
Stone Smartt stepped up in a big way, turning 3 targets into 54 yards. It came on just 11 routes, but given Dissly played the entire first half, that is forgivable. With how deep tight end is, you probably won’t need Smartt, but he could be on the DFS radar if Dissly is out.
The bigger takeaway is that it led to funneled work for Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston. Palmer led with 9 targets for 78 yards, and Johnston had 7 for 48 and a touchdown. Both guys are palatable options if McConkey and Dissly are unable to go in Week 15.
Fantasy Football Role Changes
Amari Cooper
Obviously, the big story for the Buffalo Bills Sunday was Josh Allen going sicko mode with six total touchdowns.
That may allow Amari Cooper‘s role spike to fly under the radar. I’m hoping that’s the case.
Prior to Week 14, Cooper’s max target total in a game was five in his debut. He blew that out of the water with 14 in this one, easily the most on the team. Of those, eight were deep.
Deep volume is good.
Deep volume from a cyborg quarterback? We’re golden, baby.
I’d put my money on Khalil Shakir still leading the team in targets down the stretch, and things could get thinned out with Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman potentially back next week. But Cooper’s an easy guy to start in season-long, and his appeal for DFS is sky high if this usage goes overlooked.
Isiah Pacheco
In his second game back from his broken leg, Isiah Pacheco‘s role did improve at least a bit.
He played 47.7% of the snaps, up from 32.8% in Week 13. Pacheco easily led the team with 14 carries, and he added 4 targets, as well.
It’s still not Pacheco’s full role, but it’s a step in the right direction. He’s a mid-range running back option as his snaps should continue to rise each week.
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis
The New York Jets were eliminated from playoff contention Sunday, so there’s a shot we don’t see Breece Hall again this year. If so, both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis should get enough work to be viable.
Things were pretty even across the board without Hall on Sunday.
Davis had 4 of 11 team red-zone chances while Hall had 2. The two seemed largely interchangeable, and both were decently productive.
As long as the Jets continue to start Aaron Rodgers, both Hall and Davis are at least considerations for flex spots. It’s a disappointment that Hall didn’t get the full, every-down workload, but things could definitely be worse.
Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne
For the first time in a game this year where both guys were fully healthy, Tank Bigsby out-carried Travis Etienne, and he did so in definitive fashion. I’d likely view Bigsby as the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ lead back entering Week 15.
Bigsby racked up 18 carries and 2 targets while playing 51.7% of the snaps. Etienne was at 4, 4, and 48.3%, respectively. Etienne did, though, out-gain Bigsby thanks to 50 yards receiving.
This all came in a neutral game script, and with Trevor Lawrence out, the Jags are more likely to be trailing going forward. Those negative scripts are more likely to skew toward Etienne, who is the better pass-catcher. There’s enough here, though, to make Bigsby at least an option, more than we could have said about him prior to this week.
Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage
Puka Nacua
For a lot of teams, more concentrated usage is a negative. It can make things too predictable, allowing the defense to allocate resources toward stopping just a few pieces.
But for the Los Angeles Rams, the more they throw to Puka Nacua, the more they hum.
On Sunday, Nacua not only led with 14 targets, but he had a whopping 5 rush attempts, as well. He turned that into 162 yards receiving, 16 rushing, and 2 touchdowns.
They just want the ball in this dude’s hands, and he’s showing why that’s a smart plan.
In Nacua’s full games, his target share is up to 34.9%. And it’s not just a rate stat as you’d see with teams that run the ball more; it’s an obscene 11.2 targets per game.
Nacua’s one of the top pass-catchers in fantasy right now, and we should continue to buy high in DFS until his salary gets unreasonable.
Jordan Addison
The baseline numbers for Jordan Addison — 8 receptions for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns — were spicy. The underlying usage was just as tantalizing.
Addison led the team with 12 targets, 5 of which were downfield with 5 in the red zone. His previous highs this season were 9, 5, and 2, respectively, so this was easily his peak.
Addison has been surging for a couple weeks now, making it easier to believe that his baseline is now higher than it was before. His target share since T.J. Hockenson‘s return is up to 20.4%, and it comes with a bunch of high-leverage targets. He’s an every-week starter in season-long, and he clearly has the juice we need for him to be viable in DFS, as well.
Zach Charbonnet
We’ve been waiting all year for the Seattle Seahawks‘ ground game to get going. Surprisingly, it finally happened Sunday, even with with Kenneth Walker III sidelined.
Zach Charbonnet erupted for 134 yards on 22 carries. He added 59 yards on 7 targets, meaning he accumulated 193 yards from scrimmage. The previous high was 116 by Walker in Week 4.
In three games without Walker this year, Charbonnet has averaged 18.0 carries, 5.3 targets, and 123.0 yards from scrimmage. It’s tough to top that, making him an elite option in all formats whenever Walker is sidelined.
I do think there’s at least a chance Charbonnet’s showing leads to a tighter split between the two once Walker is back, as well. Their efficiency metrics are nearly equal, and splitting things up allows Walker to stay fresher, potentially increasing the odds he can bust off his patented big plays. That’s something they’ve lacked in the offense with Walker dealing with injuries and the offensive line struggling.
I’d still be willing to start Walker in season-long once he’s back, but we should give alternatives more consideration than we’d have given them previously.
The 49ers’ Pass-Catchers
After a hellish past month, the 49ers’ offense was finally clicking again on Sunday. Most of their passing production came via just George Kittle and Jauan Jennings.
Those two handled 14 of 26 targeted throws, well clear of Deebo Samuel, who was third on the team with 3. Kittle went for 151 yards, and Jennings had 90 with 2 touchdowns.
We now have a three-game sample of this group with Kittle and Brock Purdy and without Brandon Aiyuk. Here’s where the targets have gone in those games.
Jennings has gone for 93 and 90 yards in the two non-blizzards in this sample. He’s an every-week starter for fantasy right now, and even with muted shares in that split, Kittle obviously is, as well.
As for Deebo Samuel, he (purely anecdotally) seems to lead the league in “explosive plays negated by penalties” this year. That’s why I’ve kept trying to buy low. But at some point, he needs actual production, and he hasn’t topped 86 yards from scrimmage since Week 6. He’s merely an acceptable play in season-long, and if you do try to buy low in DFS, I’d do so on a limited number of rosters to safeguard yourself from continued disappointment.
Additional Notes
- With no Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane‘s snap rate was a beefy 83.3%. He had 14 carries and 7 targets with 10 of 17 red-zone chances. The problem is that the Miami Dolphins are incapable of running the ball, so he had just 69 yards from scrimmage. Even with that in mind, I’d still buy into Achane because this role — as long as Mostert is out — is too good to pass up.
- Aaron Jones‘ role rebounded a bit after a reduced snap count last week. He played 64.3% of the Vikings’ snaps in Week 14. That’s still down from his previous baseline, but I’d think that’d be his new norm going forward, given the fumbling and durability concerns.
- Christian Watson continued to get noteworthy volume for the Green Bay Packers. He led with 7 targets — on just 19 targeted throws — with 2 deep. He now has multiple deep targets in six straight games, four of which came with Romeo Doubs active. Thus, Watson will still at least have a path to a ceiling when Doubs is back, even if his median expectation will go back down.
- Brian Thomas Jr. was the focal point of the Jaguars’ passing game Sunday. He led with 12 targets, 4 of which were deep with 2 in the red zone. A lot of those downfield balls from Mac Jones are going to fall into the “prayer yards” bucket, but there’s a path to upside for Thomas. He’s the one Jaguar we can at least consider at times in DFS the rest of the way.
- With George Pickens sidelined, the Pittsburgh Steelers spread things around. Jaylen Warren led with five targets, and nobody had more than 48 yards. It would have been better in a more neutral script, and I don’t mind bumping up Pat Freiermuth, but the rest of the group is going to lack predictable upside.
- Tim Patrick scored twice and had a respectable seven targets for the Detroit Lions. He has played well enough to continue earning looks, which is a concern where things were already a bit spread out behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. It’s worth taking swipes at this offense, but we should lower median expectations a bit with so many guys capable of deserving looks.
- Darnell Mooney didn’t produce in Week 13 — his first after a hamstring injury — but Week 14 was much better. He finished with 142 yards on just 6 targets, 3 of which were deep. We can go back to treating him the way we did earlier in the year, when he had a solid baseline with a high weekly ceiling.
- Not much changed for Jalen McMillan in his two-touchdown day Sunday; he just found productivity. He turned a team-leading seven targets into 59 yards, nearly double his previous high this season. He’s easily the WR2 on the team in snaps behind Mike Evans, and he has earned high-leverage targets since Week 1. He’s worth an extra close look in coming weeks to see if he can build upon this performance.
- It seems likely that Alexander Mattison is back next week, but Sincere McCormick had a nice role in Week 14. He played 59.4% of the snaps, netting 15 carries and 3 targets. That’s enough to make him a flex option, even in a poor offense, if Mattison does miss more time.
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