Handicapping every Big Ten team’s win total – Las Vegas Sun News

All the major conferences in college football appear desperate to add Las Vegas to their national footprint.  

The Big Ten technically already accomplished that objective by announcing a partnership with the Las Vegas Bowl, which the conference has sent a representative to in three of the last four seasons.

But, with the conference having added a handful of West Coast schools before last season, that’s no longer enough.

The Big Ten seeks to be the best conference in college football and is therefore strategically making inroads in the city that now hosts the largest share of major sporting events in the nation.

The conference’s Media Days arrive locally for the first time today with six teams doing the rounds daily through Thursday at Mandalay Bay.

The Big Ten Conference Championship is contracted to take place in Indianapolis through 2028, but there’s already talk that Allegiant Stadium could be a target for the next site.

The Big Ten is now yet another conference with strong Las Vegas ties, so let’s take extra care in running through all the teams as part of the continued college football preview.

Read below to find my handicap on every Big Ten team’s over/under season win total below. Picks are listed in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with lines the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side with the sports book noted. The listed win totals next to each team’s name represent the market consensus price. This is part three in a five-part preview series. Check out the first two parts here.

Illinois (over/under 7.5 wins)

The Illini are drawing a fair bit of hype coming off an ascendant season where they went 10-3, but every advanced metric indicates they overachieved. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and relied on a number of since-departed weapons to get the best out of returning quarterback Luke Altmyer.   

Play: Under 8.5 wins at -180 (Boyd Sports)

Indiana (over/under 8.5 wins)

Buy on the Hoosiers long-term given the ability of coach Curt Cignetti and the program’s recent influx of name, image and likeness (NIL) funds, but it’s going to be tough to maintain last year’s College Football Playoff standard this season. Indiana’s schedule gets significantly tougher, and its No. 2 ranking in the nation in turnover luck, per the SP+ ratings, is virtually guaranteed to regress.  

Play: Under 8.5 wins at -130 (BetMGM)

Iowa (over/under 7.5 wins)

A year after ranking dead-last in the nation with 3.8 yards per play, Iowa’s offense climbed just short of the upper half at 5.4 yards per play under the direction of new coordinator Tim Lester. Now, Lester has a handpicked and proven quarterback to run his scheme in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski.

Play: Over 6.5 wins at -180 (Wynn)

Maryland (over/under 4.5 wins)

The Terrapins have a roster that should be able to hold its own from a talent perspective and a schedule the Football Power Index rates as the weakest in the conference. Bowl eligibility seems unlikely, but five wins might be Maryland’s likeliest outcome.  

Guess: Over 4.5 wins at +105 (South Point)

Michigan

The Wolverines’ offense can’t get any worse than last season when it ranked 124^th in the nation at 4.6 yards per play. But it has some upside with blue-chip recruit Bryce Underwood and Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene competing for the quarterback job. The Wolverines also have a forgiving conference schedule that should pave the way to a bounce-back season.

Lean: Over 8.5 wins at -165 (Circa)

Michigan State

Now a decade removed from their last Big Ten championship, the Spartans’ reign spent at or near the top of the conference seems long over. Their talent acquisition, both in recruiting and via the portal, has dropped off more near the bottom. It might be too much for second-year coach Jonathan Smith, a schematic and motivational ace, to overcome.   

Guess: Under 5.5 wins at +130 (Caesars/William Hill)

Minnesota

For the second straight year, rumblings around the sport indicate Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck wants out. Unlike last season, Fleck doesn’t have one of the league’s more experienced rosters to fall back on for a surprisingly successful campaign.

Lean: Under 6.5 wins at +140 (BetMGM)

Nebraska

Nebraska has a lot looking up including thrilling sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola working with new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen but also some concerns including a challenging schedule and dearth of big-time receivers. The right number is 7.5 wins, so neither the over nor the under should be available at high plus-money.   

Guess: Under 7.5 wins at +140 (South Point)

Northwestern (over/under 4 wins)

The Wildcats have a pair of NFL prospect edge rushers in Aidan Hubbard and Anto Saka. That should be just enough to keep them competitive, or at least a pain for the more potent Big Ten offenses to have to face.

Guess: Over 4 wins at +125 (South Point)

Ohio State (over/under 10.5 wins)

Sure, few programs in the nation are on Ohio State’s level but, regardless of status, it’s difficult for any team to maintain the same level of play after losing 13 players to the NFL Draft and both coordinators. Two losses, not one, should be the expectation for the defending national champions going up against one of the toughest strengths of schedule in the conference.

Guess: Under 10.5 wins at -128 (Boyd)

Oregon

The Ducks went undefeated last regular season but return only four starters from that No. 1 seeded College Football Playoff squad. Some growing pains should be expected for a young team especially after they also lost offensive leader/season receiver Evan Stewart to a knee injury earlier in the summer.

Play: Under 10.5 wins at -140 (Boyd)

Penn State

No program in the nation returns a more complete team than Penn State. The Nittany Lions have difference-makers at every position, and poached Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles with the richest assistant contract in college football history. If head coach James Franklin is ever going to disprove his reputation as a big-game choker, this will be the year.

Play: Over 10.5 wins at +140 (STN Sports)

Purdue (over/under 3 wins)

Las Vegas saw first-hand how much new Purdue coach Barry Odom can transform a program in his two years at UNLV. But the scant resources at Purdue compared to the rest of its conference-mates make this a tougher assignment. Odom’s stock is so high that it remains baffling that this ultrachallenging job is the one he chose.

Guess: Under 3 wins at +115 (South Point)

Rutgers (over/under 5.5 wins)

Here’s another team where the schedule means everything to the season-long handicap. The Scarlet Knights broke through with a 7-5 regular-season campaign last year, but that was largely by virtue of avoiding all the Big Ten’s best teams. All the top-tier opponents are on the slate this year, making the path infinitely more difficult for veteran quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis and Co. to maintain their same level of success.

Guess: Under 5.5 wins at +130 (Caesars/William Hill)

UCLA (over/under 5 wins)

The Bruins endure major roster turnover for the second straight season, but they narrowly eclipsed expectations last year by going 5-7 straight-up in their first year under coach DeShaun Foster. This year’s roster is better. Beyond the NIL controversy that led to his departure from Tennessee, Nico Iamaleava has as high of upside as any quarterback in the country.

Lean: Over 5 wins at -140 (STN)

USC (over/under 7.5 wins)

If Liberty High graduate/former UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava can turn down his turnover woes, everything is in place for USC to elevate back towards the top of the sport. Embattled coach Lincoln Riley has said this year’s team stands as his best roster in four years with the Trojans, and that looks especially true on defense with what should be a highly disruptive front.

Play: Over 7.5 wins at -145 (STN)

Washington

Washington coach Jedd Fisch’s teams improved every season in his previous spot, Arizona. There’s no reason that trend should change at Washington where he has a significantly more talented roster at his disposal. The Huskies went 6-6 in Fisch’s debut regular season last year, and used the end of it to start developing promising now-sophomore quarterback Demond Williams.

Play: Over 7.5 wins at +116 (Boyd)

Wisconsin (over/under 5.5 wins)

Badgers coach Luke Fickell is wisely going back to more of a power-run philosophy but the concern is it might be too late. Wisconsin’s roster now appears to be a transitional phase, which isn’t ideal in a make-or-break season after three straight years of the program’s underachievement.

Guess: Under 5.5 wins at -150 (South Point)