How League‑Wide Shifts Impact Fantasy

There’s every reason to be excited about the 2025 NFL season, unless you’re a Jets or Browns fan. For starters, QB play is in the best place it’s been in years, seemingly recovered from a two-year slump after a slew of long-time starters — Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill — retired in quick succession or declined to backup status. 

Things arguably look even better at running back, where Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry were two of the main stories in 2024 for both regular football and fantasy. The current crop of veteran RBs has aged far more gracefully than what we saw at the position throughout the 2010s, with the old guard now joined by the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty, Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. The incoming rookie class should help, featuring high-end talent in the early rounds and a slew of Day 3 rookies who didn’t take long to generate ‘sleeper’ buzz.

There’s also no shortage of high-end talent at wide receiver, where Ja’Marr Chase lapped the field last year but could soon have CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, Brian Thomas, Nico Collins or Drake London nipping at his heels. The depth at WR isn’t great, at least for fantasy, but we still have the usual assortment of breakout candidates in the middle and late rounds.

At tight end, there’s a new and distinct upper class, with Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews declining while Brock Bowers and Trey McBride have rapidly risen to the top. One of the key fantasy strategy points for 2025 is deciding whether or not to use an early pick on Bowers, McBride or George Kittle. 

League-Wide Trends in 2024

At this time last summer, discussion of NFL league-wide trends largely centered around a 2022-23 scoring decline and the impact of two-high coverages in slowing down passing games. I even discussed it at length in this same article last August, concluding that the increased popularity of two-high zones was likely just one small part of a larger picture depressing scoring. 

The aforementioned dip in QB play was another factor, along with defensive coordinators putting more effort into disguising coverages (both pre-snap and initially after the snap) or calling half-field coverages that blend various concepts. The days of perfecting Cover 2 or Cover 3 and then dropping back into it over and over again are mostly gone.

The risk with those more complex coverages is that they demand more from defenders mentally and thus create added risk for blown communications and missed assignments. Highly regarded defensive playcallers like Mike Macdonald and Brian Flores often confuse quarterbacks, but they also demand a lot from their linebackers and defensive backs, opening the door for big mistakes or issues integrating talented young players.

I hypothesized last year that it was only a matter of time before offenses adjusted and struck back, the same way defenses had altered their coverage methods and personnel preferences in response to various rule changes this millennium that worked in favor of the passing game. One way to strike back is running the ball uber-efficiently, as seen last year in Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia and Buffalo, the four teams with the best scoring margins in the regular season.

Strong years from those juggernauts helped, but it wasn’t the only reason scoring rebounded to pre-2022 levels last season, back up to 22.9 points per team game. We also saw the lowest per-drive turnover rate (10.7 percent) in NFL history, and net yards per pass attempt (NY/A) rebounded to 6.2 after dropping to 6.1 in 2022 and 6.0 in 2023. In terms of volume, passing hit a 16-year low of 32.7 attempts per team game, down from 33.7 in 2023 (and a peak of 35.7 in 2015-16).

NFL League-Wide Stats 2010-25 (Per Team Game)

Rushing stats were a different story, with 2024 featuring the second-highest marks in the past 12 years for rush attempts per team game (27.0), rushing yards (119.8) and YPC (4.4) — behind only 2023 in each case. The combination of more rushing plays and higher completion rates on pass plays meant fewer incompletions, and thus fewer clock stoppages, which dropped plays per team game (62.2) to a 17-year low (down from 63.1 in 2023 / a modern peak of 65.0 in 2013). 

Teams averaged an all-time-low of 10.7 drives per game, largely grinding out long drives by running the ball or completing short passes. Completion rate also hit an all-time high, 65.3 percent, with aDOT dropping to an all-time low of 7.7 (continuing long-term trends in both cases). 

Quick passes at/near the line of scrimmage have been a big part of NFL offenses in recent years, but sack rates nonetheless have risen slightly, in part because QBs are extending more plays, which also shows up in higher scramble rates and a longer average Time to Throw (TTT). Despite the popularity of screens and swing passes, TTT hit a high-water mark of 2.81 seconds last year, fueled by career highs for league leaders Lamar Jackson (3.14), Jalen Hurts (3.13), Sam Darnold (3.08) and Justin Fields (3.04).

Two-High Solved? 

Defenses used two-high looks at the exact same rate as the year before, on 42.1% of dropbacks, but EPA per dropback on those plays (0.01) was actually higher than the league-wide mark against single-high defenses (-0.01), i.e., the reverse of what we saw in previous years. Improved passing efficiency against two-high coverages was partially driven by boosts in completion rate (68.9%, up from 67.8% the year before) and YPA (7.1, up from 7.0), along with interception rate plummeting to 2.26% after three straight years at exactly 2.56%. 

NFL offenses may not be hitting big plays more frequently than they used to against two-high looks, but they’ve gotten better at avoiding turnovers and moving the chains by completing short passes or running the ball. The style of play reduces incompletions, which keeps the game clock running and reduces play volume, encouraging offenses to grind out drives rather than hit big plays. Teams did a better job of play that style last season, but make no mistake that the downfield passing remained depressed on a league-wide basis, with some offenses barely making an effort or giving up (Miami).

Passing Stats Against Two-High Coverages (2018-24)

Frequency of Defensive Coverages (2018-24)

QB Talent Infusion 

One of the biggest stories of 2024 was Jayden Daniels, Kliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn immediately turning one of the NFL’s worst offenses into one of the most efficient. They went along with a lot of the league-wide trends of recent years, running the ball often and well, with a passing game that threw a lot of quick passes near the LOS but then also had a lot of dropbacks turn into scramble drills. Daniels’ unique talent was the key factor in all of that, of course, but Kingsbury also impressed, showing growth after his lackluster tenure as head coach in Arizona.

Fellow rookies Bo Nix, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams weren’t nearly as successful, but Nix had strong numbers from mid-October onward and led his team to the playoffs, while Maye accounted for 17 TDs (two rushing) in his 10 full games for a horrible team. Michael Penix also looked competent when he finally got to play, and J.J. McCarthy is now taking over over in Minnesota. A couple of these guys will be busts, history suggests, but it nonetheless sets up as easily the best QB class since 2020 (Burrow/Tagovailoa/Herbert/Love/Hurts) after a three-year run of drafts that have each produced just one quality starter so far — Trevor Lawrence in 2021, Brock Purdy in 2022, C.J. Stroud in 2023. 

The talent infusion was sorely needed, given that the stretch of poor draft classes coincided with an early-2020s spike in retirements among long-time starting QBs. In terms of 2024 specifically, better health at the position may have been an even larger factor in pass efficiency stats improving so much compared to 2022-23. I predicted said improvement in this space last season, noting that the number of long-time injuries to quality starters was much higher than usual in both 2022 and 2023.

Alas, QBs held up much better in 2024, at least on the whole, with Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence and Deshaun Watson being the only regular starters to suffer season-ending injuries before December. The Jaguars and Browns weren’t passing the ball efficiently in any case, though we should also mention that QB injuries took a chunk out of the New Orleans and Miami offenses (at times). It wasn’t a clean slate by any means, but it was better than 2023 when Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones were all done for the year before Thanksgiving (and Justin Herbert not long after).

Last year, the top 13 QBs in fantasy scoring average all played at least 15 games, with 10 of them suiting up for all 17. That helped the upper class at the position to swell to six, with Daniels, Burrow and Baker Mayfield joining mainstays Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts atop the fantasy ranks. Those six all averaged between 20.9 and 25.3 points per game under standard settings (4-point pass TD, 25/10 yardage), with Nix a distant seventh at 18.7 ppg.

Burrow and Mayfield aren’t quite part of the upper class for 2025 in terms of ADP, as it seems to have become a Big 3 (Allen/Jackson/Daniels), followed by Hurts at No. 4, Burrow at No. 5, and then Mayfield jockeying with Nix, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray as the mid-range QB1s. It’s a strong group, with a slew of breakout candidates available afterward, highlighted mainly by the aforementioned second-year pros.

There’s an easy enough argument for drafting Jackson, Allen, Daniels or Hurts in Rounds 3/4, as all offer a combination of rushing stats and efficient passing that essentially guarantees 20-plus fantasy points per game. Other QBs can reach that level with only a few hundred yards from scrambles, but doing it year after year has proven difficult for even Burrow and Mahomes. Of course, there’s a nice payoff if we draft a QB well outside the Top 50 and he has a spike year (or a return to peak form, in Mahomes’ case) with fantasy scoring comparable to the elite dual threats. 

QBs W/ 20+ Fantasy Points per Game (2022-24)

The table above shows every QB from the past three years with 20-plus fantasy points per game (under 4-point TDs and 25/10 yardage scoring) and more than five games played. One thing you may notice is that the consistent elite (Allen/Hurts/Jackson) follow league-wide trends toward more scrambling and higher TTT (time to throw) but go against the trend towards shallower aDOT. 

Another big thing to note is that every season on the list includes at least 200 rushing yards, multiple rushing scores and a passing YPA of 7.2 or better. That holds true, at least in spirit, if we go back two additional years and include the two-year pandemic stretch (2020-21) with elevated scoring and far more QBs averaging 20-plus points (10 in 2020, nine in 2021). Of those 19 QB seasons, there were just two with less than 140 rushing yards (both Tom Brady), one without multiple rushing TDs (Prescott in 2021) and two with a YPA below 7.3 (Kyler Murray at 7.1 in 2020, then Josh Allen at 6.8 in 2021).

This is key to remember for any fantasy manger who doesn’t draft a QB early and instead hunts for breakout candidates or spike seasons in the middle/late rounds. It doesn’t need to be a “running QB” like Justin Fields, nor someone who is among the favorites to lead the league in pass volume. What we do need is a QB that can add a few hundred yards and multiple TDs on the ground while posting efficient passing stats. That’s why many of the second-year QBs are among my favorite sleepers at the position, along with Trevor Lawrence and rookie Cameron Ward.

RB Domination

Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase led all non-QBs in PPR scoring last year, nearly 50 points ahead of any other player. After him, the next four highest scorers were running backs, followed by an assortment of WRs and RBs until you get to Brock Bowers at No. 18 and Trey McBride at No. 23. The RB spot also had a strong middle class last year, with 21 players reaching 200 PPR points for the first time since 2002. The prior year was also solid in that regard, despite depressed scoring overall and just one mega season (CMC) at the position, as 18 RBs topped 200 PPR points and seven others were in the 190s.

From a purely anecdotal perspective, it seems like the anxiety many people once had about filling RB2 spots has been replaced by concern about fielding enough depth at wide receiver. Some of that has to do with the excellent backfield talent in the league and the recent reduction in passing volume, but we also got a freakishly good season for RB health last year. Among the 17 RBs to average 15 PPR points, Kenneth Walker was the only one to play fewer than 14 games. 

In 2023, there were only 14 RBs to average 15-plus points, and five of them played fewer than 14 games. In 2022, only 10 hit the mark, and one of those was Breece Hall over seven games. Back in 2021, there were 16 RBs to average 15 PPR points but seven of them played 13 or fewer games.

There’s little chance of the RB position being so healthy again in 2025, but that doesn’t mean we should lean away from them with early fantasy picks. It’s probably still true, in the long run, that RBs are riskier picks than WRs in the early rounds — in part due to higher injury rates — but running backs also often have higher ceilings relative to ADP.

Concern about injuries or physical breakdown at RB still seem to permeate drafts, with veteran backs like Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, James Conner and Aaron Jones landing in ADP ranges with WRs that they easily outscored last year. A half decade ago, the popular logic was that aging, name-brand RBs were usually overvalued and should be avoided. 

But then RBs started falling down draft boards, with talk of an “RB Dead Zone” around Rounds 3-7. We could make similar bets at a cheaper price, and in 2024 nearly all of those bets paid off. It won’t work out so well this year, but there’s still opportunity for value, as 2025 ADP numbers suggest drafters view last year’s RB-drive season as somewhat of a fluke. Players like Kamara, Conner and Tony Pollard have cheap ADPs relative to their Week 1 projections.

Note that RW’s projections for Week 1 have 17 WRs projected for 15+ PPR points and 46 projected for double digits, while 15 RBs are projected for 15+ and 37 for double digits. That might sound like it’s in favor of RB depth, until we consider that most fantasy leagues require three starting WRs and just two RBs. The typical fantasy manager is probably feeling better about their RB2 than their WR3, at least in terms of the Week 1 projection/expectation.

For leagues that only require two starting WRs, it even makes sense to question the prevailing wisdom about Ja’Marr Chase as a locked-in 1.01. I have him ranked there, like everyone else, but Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley are all close enough that it’s perfectly reasonable to take them first overall. That’s true in any format, but even more so in leagues where the FLEX replaces the third WR spot rather than supplementing it.

Top-Heavy at WR

Chase was the most valuable player in fantasy football last year, outscoring second-place WR Justin Jefferson by 85.5 PPR points — five points per week. If you missed out on Saquon Barkley, you might’ve arrived at a similar place with Derrick Henry. There was also plenty of opportunity in the later rounds, with four guys averaging 14.4 or more PPR points after being drafted outside the Top 100 (Chuba Hubbard, Chase Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Bucky Irving). 

There was no equivalent at wide receiver, where 17 of the top 18 fantasy totals belonged to players with top-50 ADPs. Brian Thomas was the lone exception, and even he was a top-100 pick. The highest-ranked WRs with ADPs outside the Top 100 were Jakobi Meyers at No. 23 and Jerry Jeudy at No. 24 — both propped up by massive team pass volume in offenses that couldn’t run the ball and often played from behind. There’s value in finding the next Jeudy or Meyers — my money is on New England’s DeMario Douglas or Buffalo’s Joshua Palmer — but it won’t be the thing that makes or breaks a fantasy season. 

Apart from Puka Nacua‘s rookie campaign and Nico Collins‘ Year 3 breakout, there just haven’t been high-end WR seasons without early fantasy-draft capital in recent years. It’s a trend that informs draft strategy throughout, often pointing people toward a wide receiver over a running back even when the latter has a higher ceiling in terms of raw fantasy points, e.g., drafting A.J. Brown over Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving and Josh Jacobs in Round 2.

On a league-wide level, WRs suffered from the reduced play volume and passing volume in 2024, averaging 11.9 catches and 149.4 yards per team game, slightly below even the depressed 2022-23 numbers (and 5-10 yards below the 2011-21 norms). It was just the second time in 14 years that WRs accounted for under 150 receiving yards per team game. (RB receiving volume took a similar hit, while TEs surprisingly reached high-water marks for the 17-game era in both receptions and yardage… but not TDs).

When searching for dominant WR seasons, consider the style of QB play that usually supports them. Hurts, Allen and Jackson have all had pass catchers put up nice fantasy seasons, but the so-called league winners at WR all played with QBs that don’t scramble often. 

The best fantasy WR seasons of the past five years were produced with the following QBs: Aaron Rodgers (2020 Adams), Matthew Stafford (Kupp 2021), Kirk Cousins (Jefferson 2022), Tua Tagovailoa (Hill 23), Dak Prescott (Lamb 2023) and Joe Burrow (Chase 2024). All of those QBs scramble at rates well below league-average, and all convert their dropbacks into pass-catcher targets at high rates in general, due to low numbers for some combination of scrambles, sacks and throwaways — the three obstacles lying between a QB dropback and an actual target for our pass catchers.

The Big 3 at Tight End

Last year I made the mistake, in this very same space, of buying into the idea of a deep TE group after 2023 featured career years from a bunch of veterans (Engram/Njoku/Hockenson) and an unusually strong rookie class. Cumulative production for the position rose in 2024, but it was driven by big years from Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kittle, in contrast to the flatter, deeper group in 2023.

Those three averaged between 15.5 to 15.8 PPR points, with Jonnu Smith (13.6) being the only other TE to reach 12 points per game and 200 total points (six TEs had done both the year before). Smith easily outscored a slew of players drafted long before him, many of whom ended up being no better than what’s freely available to stream in most leagues. There were at least still plenty of options in that regard, with veterans like Zach Ertz, Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki and Cade Otton typically good for 7-10 PPR points per game (and occasionally enjoying volume spikes due to teammate injuries).

For this year, ADP largely puts Bowers in the second round, McBride in the second/third and Kittle in the third/fourth, while Jonnu requires some scrolling down after a trade to Pittsburgh. There’s a huge gap after Kittle, with Sam LaPorta often (but not always) drafted as the TE4, usually around the sixth or seventh round. In high-stakes leagues and best-ball drafts, the ADP gap between Kittle and LaPorta is around 40 spots.

The rookie class brings intrigue again, with two first-round picks and four second-rounders, plus third-round pick Harold Fannin, who appears to have a Week 1 role behind David Njoku in Cleveland. Fannin will start off as a part-timer, but updates from preseason and training camp suggest fellow rookies Tyler Warren and Mason Taylor may jump right into three-down roles.

We’re not buying any narrative about TE being truly deep again, but LaPorta is a nice consolation prize if he’s still available in Round 7/8, and there are enough sleepers and breakout candidates later on that we don’t need to panic and reach for a third-tier TE before Rounds 7-8. Once the Big 3 and LaPorta are gone, it’s best to be patient, pouncing if someone like Travis Kelce or T.J. Hockenson falls well below ADP or else taking two tight ends in the double-digit rounds to platoon.

The other good option is to avoid this problem altogether by drafting Bowers, McBride or Kittle, whose healthy floors are higher than the ceilings of many so-called breakout candidates. The decision between drafting an elite TE or not is crucial for roster construction this year, and it’s a decision that looks different in every format/league. Personally, I’m more likely to draft an elite TE in shallower leagues and/or against softer competition, i.e., situations where it’s much easier to build up strength at the positions (RB and WR) where we need multiple starters.

Special Teams Revolution

There’s nothing the NFL loves more than an excuse to juice scoring under the guise of player safety. That’s what’s happened with the so-called dynamic kickoff, which is now sending touchbacks to the 35-yard line after most teams kicked into the end zone when it was at the 30 last year. Average starting field position for drives was at the 30.1-yard line, up from 28.8 the year before and the highest since 2008 (back when kickoffs were taken from the 30 and punters weren’t nearly as effective). It now figures to be higher, although maybe not much given that most teams won’t want touchbacks now.

Field Position and Special Teams Statistics

Better starting field position, on average, means the same quantity of yards will yield more points — a trend compounded by massive gains in field-goal range over the past two decades. The 2024 season set a record for made field goals per game, with the most attempts since 1973 and an incredible 195 makes from 50-plus yards (smashing the record of 158 from just one year before).

Modern improvements in punting efficiency (as seen above) have quietly done just as much to depress scoring, but that has less impact now that starting field position after kickoffs is better and more teams favor fourth-down tries or long field goals over punts. Punters are way, way better than their counterparts of even 10 years ago, which was one of the three main factors the NFL outlined last year after studying the 2022-23 scoring decline (the other two major contributors, as discussed above, were an unusual number of QB injuries and reduced pace/volume due to teams throwing fewer deep passes and incompletions).

Punters may be losing work despite their efficiency, but the opposite is true for kickers, which adds a little more variance to the position and arguably makes top performers more valuable for fantasy than they used to be. This is especially true because most of the volume being added is long range, with attempts worth five or more points in many fantasy leagues. Six kickers finished 2024 with at least 160 fantasy points, a total that would’ve ranked first or second in the league in nearly any preceding season.

Brandon Aubrey‘s two seasons in the NFL account for two of the top three fantasy totals by a kicker since 2011 (shoutout to David Akers). The other season was Chris Boswell‘s 2024, with 184 points putting him 51 clear of 12th-place Jason Myers (a difference of exactly three points per game). If you started Boswell or Aubrey all year, it was a meaningful advantage over even the people who were meticulously and successfully streaming the position.

Those same two won’t necessarily be the leaders again in 2025, but it’s a good bet that the expanding definition of ‘field-goal range’ leads to a few more monster seasons in fantasy that provide 2-3 extra points per week beyond what most teams are getting from the position. Kickers aren’t just for the last round anymore (but please, don’t get carried away).

2025 And Beyond

Scoring in 2024 returned to pre-2022 norms after a two-year slump, boosted by a rule change on kickoffs, a record for 50-yard field goals, a handful of offenses with dominant running games and better QB play in general. Passing numbers even improved against two-high coverages — a much-discussed aspect of the scoring dip in 2022 and 2023 — with the help of better injury luck and a strong rookie class at QB.

For fantasy, it was a more RB-driven year, with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley leading the charge as NFL teams averaged 119.8 rushing yards per game (second most in the last 35 years) and just 32.7 pass attempts per game (the least since 2008). Things were less promising at wide receiver, where Ja’Marr Chase lapped the field and overall volume was low due to the simultaneous increase in run rate and decrease in play volume.

It was also a tough year for injuries at wide receiver, with seven of the top 18 in PPR points per game missing five or more games, including Chris Godwin and Rashee Rice going down for the season after putting up WR1 numbers early. For running backs, on the other hand, it was a remarkably light year in terms of the injury absences for starters, although Christian McCaffrey‘s Achilles changed the complexion of most fantasy leagues.

A more typical balance in the RB/WR injury split could also push run rate slightly down and lead to a bit more play volume and passing, but it depends on how teams adjust to a new league environment where the run/pass split looks similar to the numbers from a generation ago (and not the stats from the past 15 years ago). We’ve also seen some of the most efficient rushing seasons ever in the past seven years, with YPC topping 4.4 four times, which could mean more teams trying to run the ball but could also mean defenses putting more emphasis on stopping the run. 

Things likely will cycle back toward more passing at some point, given all the changes in rules and rules “emphasis” throughout the 2000s that made it easier to pass (and slightly less dangerous to be a QB or pass catcher). Just don’t assume it’ll happen right away, as last year’s continuation of the recent downward trend in pass rate occurred amid a normal-ish season for QBs injury-wise. Teams were running more often because they wanted to, not because they had backup QBs who couldn’t pass.

Regardless of how that plays out in 2025, it’s highly unlikely that scoring slumps back to the 2023-24 level, now propped up by the ever-changing kickoff roles in addition to the Ravens/Lions. The league-wide trend is towards a lot of running plays and short passes, but a lot of the fantasy juice lies with teams that defy that trend and pile up yards in a hurry. Combining these high-powered offenses with recent changes on special teams could yield some huge point totals, with touchbacks now putting the ball one first down away from FG range for many modern kickers.

That also means fewer yards are needed per touchdown, which in turns means TDs accounting for a slightly higher percentage of the overall fantasy points. Most of the speculation about Jameson Williams improving on last year’s numbers entails taking targets from Amon-Ra St. Brown, but maybe Williams can get there instead by scoring a dozen TDs on just 6-7 targets per game. 

We could make a similar argument for other standout talents with volume uncertainty, including two-star Travis Hunter, arguably the biggest non-fantasy story of the 2025 NFL season. Just make sure your league has IDP scoring turned off so Hunter isn’t also the biggest story of your fantasy season.

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