The Indiana Hoosiers were one of the stories of the 2024 College Football Season, going 11-1 and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. Despite losing to Notre Dame, it was a great story, but the Hoosiers have taken a lot of flak due to their schedule being amongst the easiest in the country. Not everyone was happy that Indiana got a bid in the playoffs, and their future schedules have come under a lot of scrutiny. Today, that scrutiny is back in the spotlight, as the Hoosiers have reportedly canceled a home-and-home series with Virginia. According to On3 Sports Brett McMurphy, Indiana owes UVA $500,000 for canceling the series. What is interesting is that Indiana is adding a game with Kennesaw State to the schedule in 2027, a matchup with Austin Peay in 2028, and Eastern Illinois in 2029.
Indiana cancels home/home series w/Virginia in 2027-28 & must pay Cavs’ $500,000 for canceling series, @michaelniziolek reports. Instead, Indiana has added home games w/Kennesaw State in 2027, Austin Peay in 2028 & Eastern Illinois in 2029
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) July 15, 2025
Indiana cancels Virginia football series, schedules another FCS opponenthttps://t.co/2xlXP7N3UX
— FBSchedules.com (@FBSchedules) July 14, 2025
It is safe to say that the scrutiny about the Hoosiers schedule is not going to be going away any time soon.
If you squint hard enough, you can find a lot of similarities between the Indiana 2024 schedule and the schedule that Virginia has to play this season. The Cavaliers schedule has been called the easiest in the power four by many and it may just allow them to get to a bowl game for the first time under Tony Elliott, at the bare minimum.
Virginia heads into the 2025 season with not only the easiest schedule in the ACC, but the easiest schedule in the power four according to ESPN’s FPI. FPI has Virginia with the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country. Wake Forest, Houston, BYU, and Arizona make up the rest of the weakest power four schedules in the country.
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
FPI was released this week and it has Virginia ranked as the 63rd best team in the country and finishing with a record of 7-5. FPI gives UVA a 71.4% chance to make a bowl game, a 0.8% chance to win the ACC, and a 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:
1. Miami (No. 9 overall)
2. Clemson (No. 11)
3. SMU (No. 20)
4. Virginia Tech (No.26)
5. Georgia Tech (No. 28)
6. Louisville (No. 41)
7. Florida State (No. 48)
8. Boston College (No. 50)
9. North Carolina (No. 51)
10. Duke (No. 54)
11. NC State (No. 57)
12. Pittsburgh (No. 58)
13. California (No. 60)
14. Syracuse (No. 62)
15. Virginia (No. 63)
16. Stanford (No. 64)
17. Wake Forest (No. 89)
Here is how Virginia’s 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:
Aug. 30th- Coastal Carolina (100th)
Sept. 6th- at NC State (No. 57)
Sept. 13th- William & Mary (NA)
Sept. 20th- Stanford (64th)
Sept. 26th- Florida State (48th)
Oct. 4th- at Louisville (41st)
Oct. 18th- Washington State (98th)
Oct. 25th- at North Carolina (51st)
Nov. 1st- at Cal (60th)
Nov. 8th- Wake Forest (89th)
Nov. 15th- at Duke (54th)
Nov. 28th- Virginia Tech (26th)
As you can see, this is a very favorable schedule for the Cavaliers. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season and don’t face a projected top 25 opponent according to FPI. I also don’t think Virginia Tech is the 26th best team in the country and 4th best in the ACC. I don’t expect this team to be in the ACC Championship, but anything less than a bowl appearance is going to be mighty disappointing.
