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C.J. Stroud had every reason to believe his NFL success would be uninterrupted.
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Being a star in the NFL came easier for Stroud than practically any rookie quarterback before him. Two seasons ago Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game and also touchdown-to-interception ratio, joining 1989 Joe Montana and 2007 Tom Brady on that list. Those are two of the most iconic seasons in NFL history. Stroud matched them, and did so as a rookie. He took a moribund Texans franchise to the playoffs.
Stroud was an instant star in Year 1, arguably the best rookie quarterback in league history. Bigger things were expected in Year 2, by practically everyone. No player got more bets to win NFL MVP before last season at BetMGM than Stroud.
“I wouldn’t say that I was comfortable, but I definitely had a feeling like I knew I was going to do well,” Stroud said, via Fox Sports, “and even that’s dangerous.”
It wasn’t as easy in his second season, though it wasn’t a failure. It was just a lesson.
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Behind a bad offensive line, Stroud’s numbers dropped across the board. His rating fell from 100.8 to 87. The Texans started 5-1 but went 5-6 after that to finish the regular season. Stroud threw for 86 yards in a loss to the Packers. Houston lost to the lowly Titans. They scored two points in a home loss to the Ravens. Houston still won the AFC South, but it looked like a mediocre (at best) team in the second half of the season. Everything seemed to be a struggle. That’s a reason offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, a hot name in the head-coaching cycle at the end of the 2023 season, was fired.
“The difference that I’ve had this year is I haven’t had as much fun,” Stroud said late last season, via ESPN.
Stroud is just 23 years old but comes across as wise beyond his years when he speaks of his craft. He didn’t make excuses for a down 2024 season. He saw it as part of the process.
“Being a quarterback in the NFL is something that no one can teach you about,” Stroud said, via Fox Sports. “You got to experience it. Got to make mistakes, you got to fail. You have to do good, and you have to do bad.”
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And it wasn’t all that bad. The Texans won a division title. They followed that up with a playoff win against the Chargers and a competitive divisional-round loss at the Chiefs. It’s hard to say 10 regular-season wins, an AFC South title and a playoff win was a miserable season.
What’s next? It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Stroud is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season. His rookie season was no fluke. The Texans’ defense carried the team last season and should be good again. Head coach DeMeco Ryans is proving himself to be one of the NFL’s best.
Yet, the expectations have dwindled and for good reason. There was a lot to fix at the end of the season, despite the playoff performances. The Texans did not play well for more than two months last season. Issues like the offensive line are still a concern. The Texans won’t exactly revert to 2022, before Stroud and Ryans saved a dysfunctional franchise, but in a competitive NFL the next step isn’t always forward.
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That’s something Houston and its young quarterback learned last season.
Offseason grade
On one hand, it’s not like breaking up a bad offensive line was the worst idea. But did the Texans do enough to make it better? They traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and first-round disappointment Kenyon Green, and also cut guard Shaq Mason. The Texans signed Cam Robinson to play left tackle, but that seems like a big downgrade from Tunsil. They traded for guard Ed Ingram, coming off a poor season with the Vikings, and also signed 33-year-old guard Laken Tomlinson and drafted tackle Aireontae Ersery in the second round. The line will be different, though the Texans didn’t acquire anyone who projects as a plus starter.
The other big project was overhauling the receiver room. Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is likely to miss all season due to a horrible knee injury. To replace them the Texans drafted Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third round, and also traded for Christian Kirk. The Texans got safety C. J. Gardner-Johnson from the Eagles for Green, and he should be a starter.
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Grade: C
Quarterback report
Before last season, Nick Caley had never held an assistant job higher than tight ends coach. Then last season Caley added passing game coordinator duties for the Los Angeles Rams and turned that into a shot to be the Texans’ offensive coordinator. Caley, who is 42 years old, has spent the past 10 seasons learning from Bill Belichick and Sean McVay, and he could be a brilliant OC right away. There’s just a lot riding on an unproven commodity in Houston.
C.J. Stroud has one of the brightest futures in the NFL, but he took a step back last season. Bobby Slowik was fired from his job as offensive coordinator as a result of his unit’s issues. Caley said his offenses will play to the strengths of the players and “can evolve, be willing to change and do whatever we need to do that’s necessary based on who we have and who we’re playing.” That’s a very New England approach, which makes sense since Caley worked there for eight seasons. Stroud said Caley is giving him more ownership of the offense, which has gotten the relationship off to a good start.
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“Taking control and being a little more pre-snap, having tools to put my guys in the best position. That is something that we really didn’t work on these last two years,” Stroud said, via NFL.com. “… So, I will be able to put my swag on it, have fun with it. He is all about me taking full ownership, running the show, and that’s what I want.”
C.J. Stroud passed for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns last season. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
(Tim Warner via Getty Images)
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The favorite (+110) to win the AFC South again at BetMGM, Houston has revamped its wide receiving corps and offensive line (Laremy Tunsil out, Cam Robinson and Laken Tomlinson in), and how the o-line can protect C.J. Stroud will probably determine how far this team can go. A slight favorite (-140) to go to the playoffs, Houston’s win total is only 9.5 because of a tough schedule that includes games vs. the AFC West and NFC West, in addition to games against Buffalo and at Baltimore. Houston does get three straight home games from Weeks 8-10.”
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Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Nico Collins was headed for a monster season last year but injury obscured part of the story. He finished as the WR23 in overall points, but that jumps to WR8 if you grade everyone on a per-game basis. And now it’s presumable the Texans will have a better offense; they likely upgraded at offensive coordinator and it will be hard to run as unlucky with injuries as they did last season. Target Collins proactively as he readies for his age-26 season.”
Stat to remember
Two seasons ago when the Texans had a massive breakthrough, the defense was just OK. It was 16th in DVOA. Last season it finished third. It was good in just about every area, finishing in the top seven of the NFL in EPA (expected points added) and success rate allowed overall, EPA and success rate allowed against the pass and EPA allowed against the run (Houston was 14th in success rate allowed against the run). There weren’t many holes on a strong defense led by head coach DeMeco Ryans.
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Huge seasons from cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. in his third season and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. in his second season were the biggest factors. Stingley was a first-team All-Pro and Anderson was one of the NFL’s best pass rushers. The defense was also helped by the addition of Danielle Hunter, a consistent veteran pass rusher who led the team with 12 sacks. Assuming Hunter maintains his level at age 31, the Texans should feel like the defense can produce another top five season.
Burning question
Have the Texans done enough to help C.J. Stroud?
Texans No. 1 receiver Nico Collins is a superstar. Everything else around Stroud is a bit of a question. The offensive line is projected to be one of the worst in the NFL again. Joe Mixon had a good 2024 season (1,016 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs in 14 games) but is 29 years old and hasn’t averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry since 2018. Nick Chubb was signed but the Browns never tried to bring back a franchise icon, which was telling. The receiver options alongside Collins have questions. Christian Kirk was dumped by the Jaguars for a seventh-round draft pick in a trade and the other two top options are rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. They’re both talented but rookies are always an unknown. If Mixon slows way down, Chubb proves to be in significant decline after some serious injuries and no other receiving option emerges other than Collins, Stroud might feel like he has to carry the entire offense by himself. And he’d be doing so behind what projects to be a bad offensive line.
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Best-case scenario
Last season the Texans’ offense was 26th in DVOA and the defense ranked third. If C.J. Stroud rebounds to his rookie year form with a little help from his supporting cast, the Texans might have a top 10 offense and defense. The defensive foundation should support another strong season on that side of the ball. There are questions on offense but Stroud’s rookie season shouldn’t be forgotten and maybe a change in coordinators helps flip a switch. The AFC South is still one of the league’s worst divisions, so it’s possible the Texans run away with it again.
A year ago, Stroud was a popular MVP choice and the Texans were a hipster Super Bowl pick. It’s not like Houston was awful last season. After a season that didn’t meet lofty expectations, perhaps Stroud and the Texans can get right back on that track now that they’re a bit under the radar.
Nightmare scenario
The Texans regressed last season. Their final record and playoff performance didn’t indicate it because we overemphasize what happens in the postseason and the Texans did win a playoff game. But Houston was better in 2023. What if that season was the outlier? C.J. Stroud has obvious talent, but the Texans’ lack of a plan at offensive line, the age at running back and youth at receiver could nullify plenty of it. That’s what happened last season.
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The Texans’ schedule is also projected to be much tougher this season. If Houston’s defense doesn’t maintain its level from last season and its offensive line is again one of the two or three worst in the NFL, the Texans could miss the playoffs. It would be disheartening for the Texans to come out of the 2023 season looking like one of the ascending teams in the NFL, then regress two straight seasons. It would be especially distressing if Stroud takes another step back.
The crystal ball says
The Texans should be fine, but it might take some time for the Super Bowl optimism of a year ago to come to fruition. The offensive environment around C.J. Stroud isn’t any better than last season, when the Texans finished in the bottom third of the NFL in just about every advanced offensive stat. The defense will be good again, but if Houston’s offensive line is as bad as anticipated, the Texans might struggle like they did for much of the second half last season. I have concerns about Houston coming into the season. Perhaps the brilliance of DeMeco Ryans and Stroud can overcome all the other issues and the Texans win the AFC South again. It will be a lot tougher than anticipated.
