Fantasy football tight end busts can tank your season faster than any other position—and in 2025, a few big names carry even bigger red flags. Whether it’s due to injury, changing offensive schemes, or overvalued ADPs, certain tight ends are being drafted on name value rather than realistic upside. T.J. Hockenson and Jonnu Smith are prime examples this summer. While both have flashed elite production in the past, circumstances heading into the new season suggest regression—and potential headaches—for fantasy managers who draft them too high. Before you invest early draft capital on tight end, here’s why you may want to think twice.
Hockenson truthers definitely have some ammo—he led all NFC tight ends in points per game in 2023 and earned that same distinction the year before. At his best, he was a matchup-proof monster and a PPR machine. But that was before a devastating late-season knee injury derailed his momentum. The version of Hockenson we saw post-injury was a far cry from the elite difference-maker fantasy managers once trusted. Don’t fall into the trap of assuming he’ll bounce right back to his peak without a hitch.
Complicating matters further is Minnesota’s new era under center. Second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy may be a first-round talent with long-term upside, but he’s still adjusting to NFL speed—and don’t forget, he missed his entire first year due to injury. With Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison expected to soak up the lion’s share of targets, and a backfield led by Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason demanding touches, Hockenson could find himself fighting for scraps in a crowded offense.
Yes, he’s still one of the league’s more dependable tight ends—but at TE5 in PPR formats, his ADP feels a little steep. You could make a stronger case for waiting and grabbing comparable or even higher-upside names like Evan Engram, Mark Andrews, or Travis Kelce later in drafts. While Hockenson did catch 41 of his 62 targets last season, he mustered just 455 receiving yards and failed to score a single touchdown. A bounce-back in the TD department is likely, but even with some regression to the mean, the smarter strategy might be to wait and invest elsewhere. Unless you’re locking in one of the elite four—Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, or Sam LaPorta—tight end is a position best approached with patience.
TJ Hockenson projected to score more than ZERO TDs in 2025. Top notch by ESPN as always. pic.twitter.com/wribUDbKOv
— Purple FTW! Podcast (@PurpleForTheWin) July 6, 2025
Jonnu Smith’s 2024 breakout in Miami was the stuff fantasy dreams are made of—88 catches, 884 yards, and eight touchdowns, good enough to finish as the TE4 in PPR formats. But don’t chase last year’s stats into this year’s draft. His move to Pittsburgh is more likely to produce headaches than highlight reels.
Yes, the Steelers traded for Smith with visions of adding a versatile weapon to their offense, and sure, there’s room behind DK Metcalf for a second option in the passing game. But this isn’t Miami. It’s not even close. The Steelers are built around a physical run game, and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith—who coached Jonnu in Tennessee and Atlanta—isn’t exactly known for unleashing tight ends as volume receivers. Plus, Pat Freiermuth isn’t going anywhere. He’s a capable pass-catcher in his own right and a more complete tight end when you factor in blocking and red zone trust.
Let’s not forget that Smith’s 2024 spike was fueled by injuries to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In Pittsburgh, he’ll be lucky to see even two-thirds of the 111 targets he commanded last year. The Steelers’ tight end group drew just 108 targets in 2024—far below Miami’s 150—and now he’ll be splitting that pie with Freiermuth.
Fantasy managers are still feeling the afterglow of Smith’s Miami magic, but don’t get caught paying for past production. With an ADP just outside the top 10 at TE but within the TE1 range (TE12), Jonnu is shaping up to be one of the most overdrafted tight ends of 2025. Dodge the inevitable bust.
