It should come as no surprise the Oklahoma City Thunder have become champions and one of the most dynamic teams in the NBA.
The organization initiated a retooling process when it shipped Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2019, acquiring current MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and fully leaned into building through the draft two years later, by both using the enormous draft capital that came from the Clippers and additional selections via the Russell Westbrook trade to Houston, also in 2019.
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The result has only made it that much more appealing for teams to build through the draft, as the Thunder have made the most of their opportunities by selecting Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren (whom they extended Wednesday), both of whom are now rounding out Oklahoma City’s Big 3 with Gilgeous-Alexander.
During their rebuilding years, the Thunder swung a lot. They hit some and missed others. That was always going to happen. General manager Sam Presti fully realized the path to success when building through the draft was through volume.
The more bites at the apple, the better.
What has happened since establishing the Big 3 is interesting. The Thunder kind of kept hitting.
(Stefan Milic/Yahoo Sports illustration)
They used Josh Giddey, a former sixth overall selection they realized was good, but never good enough to start for them long term, to acquire Alex Caruso from Chicago, adding one of the league’s best role players and defenders to a team that already had plenty of star power.
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They struck gold with a draft-day deal for Cason Wallace, a younger Caruso clone who has the potential to be even better offensively.
Aaron Wiggins, drafted 55th overall in 2021, is now playing over 22 minutes per night.
Even outside the draft, the team nailed a low-risk signing in Isaiah Joe in 2022 after he was waived by Philadelphia. Joe is now playing over 20 minutes per game for the Thunder.
And finally, they signed Isaiah Hartenstein as a free agent last summer to simply round out their center depth and further demonstrate to the league at large that they’re not messing around.
So, the Thunder know how to acquire talent. Full stop. They dominate the draft, make smart trades and use the free-agent pool wisely. This is all high-level roster construction.
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However …
They still have incoming draft selections, and after Holmgren’s max extension, they are expected to extend Williams as well.
As such, it stands to reason the Thunder may need to make some changes — in both the short- and long-term — to retain their primary core while maintaining a supporting cast that’s economically responsible.
So let’s take a look at which players could have an immediate future with the Thunder and which could have a secure place years from now.
OKC’s Big 3
With Gilgeous-Alexander signing a supermax (four years, $272 million), Holmgren getting another (five years, $240 million), and Jalen Williams presumably signing for the same as Holmgren, things in OKC are about to get pretty tight.
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Now, before we move on to the rest of the roster, a very important note.
Even if the Thunder become a second-apron team that will go into the repeater tax, there is a world where they might … maybe … simply not care and pay for the team they have.
It’s not likely, but the scenario exists, and every Thunder fan on the planet should hope that ownership is willing to pay up for a championship team.
Furthermore, with the Thunder having so many of their players signed, they might also be significantly less affected by the limitations of the second apron, seeing as they won’t necessarily have to make trades to get better. In that case, who cares about not being able to aggregate contracts?
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That’s the optimistic view, of course.
The reality is that, by 2027-28, they’ll be paying over $149 million annually to their star trio, so keeping a roster that goes 10-12 deep — and in which role players earn on the fringes of $20 million per year — will be extremely difficult for ownership to justify, even if it should find every excuse to pay these guys.
With that out of the way, let’s get to the fabric of the roster.
C Isaiah Hartenstein, 26
Presti set up the Thunder well with Hartenstein’s contract, which has a team option in the same summer Holmgren and Williams will have their new contracts triggered.
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Of course, if the Thunder decline that option to provide financial flexibility, there is no guarantee Hartenstein would return at a smaller price point.
Hartenstein will be extension-eligible that same summer, however. So the Thunder could offer the center a long-term deal at a lower annual salary, making up the difference in years as opposed to the balloon deal he’s currently on.
That said, Hartenstein can — and probably should — dictate his own future that offseason. If another team is willing to fork over a contract worth roughly the $30 million he’s being paid now, it’ll be tough for Oklahoma City to justify that type of compensation.
Short-term safe: Yes
Long-term safe: No
G Alex Caruso, 31
Caruso is another name that’s interesting. The Thunder already extended him, as he signed a four-year deal worth $81 million, all guaranteed and with no options.
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The 31-year-old is often injured despite his otherworldly influence on the court. His contract doesn’t end until 2029, which is a lot of time for cheaper alternatives — in particular future draft picks — to develop and perhaps exceed him by that time.
With Wallace being a Caruso archetype, the Thunder could eventually view the scrappy guard as being expendable if they feel his salary is clogging their cap sheet.
For now, though, he’s sticking. Caruso is broadly seen as a major contributor to winning basketball, so the Thunder are in no rush to move off him.
Short-term safe: Yes
Long-term safe: No
G/F Lu Dort, 25
Dort is another two-way perimeter player earning a decent paycheck without it exploding the cap.
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The 25-year-old fits the age profile of the Big 3 and is earning $16.5 million this season and $17.2 million in each of the next two years.
Presti and the front office did work in a team option for 2026-27, but given Dort is a full-time starter who you can technically scale up offensively in the event Caruso is later traded, it’s difficult to see a scenario where he’s getting moved, unless it’s in a larger consolidation trade.
You quite simply don’t relinquish players of Dort’s caliber and age when they’re on that type of modest contract.
Short-term safe: Yes
Long-term safe: Yes
G Aaron Wiggins, 25
The same logic applies to Wiggins, who is quickly becoming one of the most cap-friendly role players in the league.
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Wiggins’ ability to shoot and defend with real positional size at 6-foot-6 is a major asset. The fact he’s on a deal that declines in value yearly — going from $10.5 million this season to $7.9 million in 2028-29 — is frankly ridiculous.
The Thunder have an option on him for that last season, and while they could play nice and extend him before then, they probably shouldn’t. Wiggins will be 30 at the end of the contract, and at that point it might be fine to let him test the market.
Oklahoma City should keep him until the conclusion of that deal and not think twice about it.
Short-term safe: Yes
Long-term safe: Yes
G Isaiah Joe, 25
Joe is also on a declining deal, but shorter in length than Wiggins’ as the Thunder have a team option on him in 2027.
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Simply put: Joe is a rock-solid bench scorer and a surprisingly adept defender and rebounder for his position, but he’s not invaluable.
The Thunder could choose to stick with him through the entirety of his contract and be just fine with that, but they could also use him as trade fodder later on to clear minutes for an incoming rookie, or to give more run to players already on the roster who further develop.
Don’t mistake this. Joe is on a value deal, and he’s a good get for the four years and $48 million he signed for last summer. But if losing Joe can help the Thunder avoid the restrictive second apron, OKC can justify trading him.
Short-term safe: Yes
Long-term safe: No
G Cason Wallace, 21
Finally, there’s the most intriguing young player on the roster who isn’t a part of the main trio.
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Wallace is a hyper-effective, two-way guard who not only projects as an elite defender, but also as an efficient scorer who can play off ball-dominant players.
He might end up being enormously costly, though. But should the Thunder eventually move off Caruso and Joe to clear the runway for Wallace, perhaps Presti and the front office would be willing to let Wallace become their one main luxury item, financially speaking.
Down the line, as he matures, Wallace projects as someone who appears to be outright necessary for the Thunder to win titles. As such, his fate should be pretty straightforward.
Short-term safe: Yes
Long-term safe: Yes
