All of the blood, sweat, and tears have led to this moment. As we stand on the precipice of the fantasy football playoffs, I salute you. I commend you for the late-night waiver wire bids. The constant trade messages to your league. The anxiety fueled lineup decisions that paid off. This is your time to shine. Your time to get the SPF 50 ready because basking in the warm glow of a freshly minted fantasy football trophy is in your future.
Now, let’s set those lineups and get one step closer to fantasy football immortality.
Welcome to the Week 14 Primer. Enjoy.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 14
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 8, Green Bay has had the third-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate. During the same time frame, Detroit has had the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
The last time Goff squared off against Green Bay, he completed 81.8% of his throws with a 109.3 passer rating, but he only threw the ball 22 times for 145 yards. We could easily see Detroit lean on their ground game again this week with success, but if Green Bay can offer some pushback or if Ben Johnson wants to chuck it, they should have success through the air. Goff has remained stellar on a per-dropback basis. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Goff ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, 12th in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. The Packers’ pass defense has shown some cracks in the pavement over the last few weeks. Since Week 8, Green Bay has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.
Williams is the WR35 in fantasy points per game with four top-24 wide receiver outings this season. He remains a boom/bust option weekly that hasn’t seen a red-zone look since Week 2. Overall, Williams has had a 17.7% target share, a 32.6% air-yard share, 2.32 YPRR, and a 24.1% first-read share. Since Week 6, Green Bay has utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate (53.9%). Against two high, Williams has seen his target share increase to 22.4% with 2.87 YPRR and a 32% first-read share. Williams could have a nice day if Detroit passes enough against a secondary that, since Week 8, has ranked 17th in PPR points per target allowed.
Ok, here we go. Trying to predict the Packers roulette wheel of wide receivers has been fun weekly. (it hasn’t). Reed should lead the way this week despite the coverage matchup not being in his favor. Since Week 7, Detroit has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (57.8%). Against single-high, since Week 4, Reed ranks fourth on the team in target share (11.9%) and third in YPRR (2.11) and first-read share (16.8%). Detroit’s struggles to defend the slot is what pushes Reed to the top of the Cheesehead pile this week. Detroit has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers this season.
Watson is the weekly wildcard in this receiver room. Since Week 7, Detroit has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (57.8%). Against single-high, since Week 4, Watson ranks second in target share (17.5%), first in YPRR (2.71), and second in first-read share (22.2%). With Watson’s downfield role and efficiency against single-high, I won’t bet against him making a splash play or two this week. The matchup isn’t great on paper when looking at how Detroit has defended outside receivers. Playing Watson as a flex this week is done with an eye on his ceiling and an internal conversation for your team, depending upon your other options. Since Week 8, Detroit has limited perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game.
With Romeo Doubs ruled out, Wicks will step back into the starting lineup in Week 14. Since Week 7, Detroit has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (57.8%). Against single-high, since Week 4, Wicks leads the team with a 34% TPRR and ranks fourth in YPRR (2.05) and first-read share (14.7%). In the last five games that he has played at least 50% of the snaps, he has seen seven red zone targets. Wicks will be heavily involved this week. The matchup isn’t amazing, but he could be the 1B this week behind Jayden Reed. Since Week 8, Detroit has limited perimeter wide receivers to the third-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game.
LaPorta is the TE14 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and tenth in red zone targets among tight ends. He has a 12.9% target share with 1.64 YPRR and a 13.3% first-read share. Green Bay has been a great matchup for tight ends, allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game, the 12th-most yards per reception, and the tenth-most fantasy points per game.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Love is the QB7 in fantasy points per game, ranking sixth in passing touchdowns and eighth in passing yards per game. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Love ranks seventh in yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback and tenth in CPOE. Love has displayed the ability to overcome bad matchups this season, and he’ll be asked to do so again this week. Since Week 8, Detroit has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest success rate per dropback.
Jacobs is the RB9 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in snap share, eighth in weighted opportunities, and 11th in red zone touches. He has averaged 20.7 touches and 104 total yards per game. Among 57 qualifying backs, Jacobs ranks 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs will be running uphill all day against what remains a strong Detroit run defense. Since Week 8, Detroit has held backs to the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the 12th-highest stuff rate, and the 12th-fewest yards after contact per attempt.
Doubs has been ruled out (concussion).
Since Week 4, Kraft has had a 12.9% target share, 1.73 YPRR, and a 13.2% first-read share as the TE10 in fantasy. Overall, among tight ends, he ranks sixth in red zone targets, 11th in receiving yards, and third in yards after the catch. Don’t expect a big game from Kraft this week. Detroit has held tight ends to the fourth-fewest yards per reception and the fewest fantasy points per game.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 8, New York has ranked 11th and ninth in neutral pace and neutral passing rate. Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s return, Miami has had the fourth-slowest neural pace while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate.
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Breece Hall missed Wednesday’s practice (knee). Assuming he’s good to go for Week 14, he should be in fantasy lineups. I’ll continue to update his status throughout the week.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Since his Week 8 return, Tagovailoa has played good football. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 14th in yards per attempt, fourth in passing touchdowns, first in passer rating, and eighth in CPOE. Among that sample, he has ranked 15th in fantasy points per dropback and eighth in fantasy points per game. Tagovailoa will be tested this week against a Jets’ pass defense that has bounced back in recent weeks. Since Week 8, they have given up the 12th-lowest passer rating and CPOE and the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback.
Since Week 8, for the most part, Rodgers has looked lost. He hasn’t passed for more than 233 yards in any game and finished with more than 18 fantasy points only once. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks in that span, he has the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, the second-lowest yards per attempt, and the second-lowest CPOE. It hasn’t been pretty. He faces a Miami pass defense that hasn’t been a scary matchup lately. Since Week 8, they have allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns, the sixth-most passing yards per game and ranked 16th in EPA per dropback. I don’t know if Rodgers can take advantage of a good matchup these days, much less excel against a middle-of-the-road one.
Since Week 8, Hill has surpassed 14 PPR fantasy points only twice while seeing eight red zone targets (three scores). Across his last six games, he has had an 18.5% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share while averaging 14.4 PPR points per game. The Jets have the seventh-highest single-high rate (56.6%). Since Week 8, against single high, Hill has seen his target share increase to 24.7% with 2.99 YPRR and a 27.3% first-read share. Hill will have a tough matchup this week despite the coverage shell being in his favor. Since Week 8, New York has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Wilson is the WR15 in fantasy points per game, ranking second among wide receivers in red zone targets. Since Week 7, he has only four red zone targets and two scores. During the same span, he has had a 25.2% target share, 1.82 YPRR, and a 32.4% first-read share while averaging 13.9 PPR points per game. He’s a solid play this week against a Miami secondary that, since Week 8, has ranked 16th in fantasy points per game and 15th in PRR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 7, Adams has had a 26.7% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 31.7% first-read share while averaging 12.9 PPR points per game. Across his last six games, he has had seven red zone targets and two scores. Adams should continue to soak up volume this week. Since Week 8, Miami has ranked 16th in fantasy points per game and 15th in PRR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.
Since Week 8, Smith has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 20.8% target share with 2.53 YPRR and a 25.7% first-read share. He has had three end zone targets in this span and scored three times. Since Week 8, Smith has run 46.6% of his routes from the slot. Since Week 8, the Jets have held slot receivers to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in PPR points per target allowed. Smith should continue to get volume this week while keeping him in the TE1 good graces, but don’t expect a smash game.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Waddle has eclipsed 60 receiving yards and 12 fantasy points only twice this season. It’s been a tough season for an immensely talented player who seems to be on the outside looking in for the weekly game plan. Since Week 8, Jeudy has only two red zone targets and one touchdown. The Jets have the seventh-highest single-high rate (56.6%). Since Week 8, against single high, Waddle has had a 13.6% target share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 14.5% first-read share. Sit Waddle this week. Since Week 8, New York has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target and the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pace and playcalling notes
- Atlanta has slowed things down and moved toward a run-heavy approach. Since Week 8, they have ranked 18th in neutral pace with the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate. Across their last six games, Minnesota has had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 20th in neutral passing rate.
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Darnold is the QB10 in fantasy points per game as he continues to defy logic with Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback magic. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, second in CPOE, and 12th in fantasy points per dropback. He should shred Atlanta’s wretched pass defense. Since Week 8, Atlanta has allowed the tenth-most passing yards per game, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the third-highest passer rating, and the tenth-highest CPOE.
Addison has raised his stock in recent weeks to the WR36 in fantasy points per game, with top 24 receiver showings in three of his last five games. He has five red zone targets and three scores across his last five games. Since Week 6, Atlanta has utilized two high at the sixth-highest rate (54.4%). Against two high, Addison has had a 16.4% target share with 1.82 YPRR and a 19.6% first-read share. He should crush this week against a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and fourth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Mooney is the WR34 in fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in deep targets among wideouts. Sadly, he hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 7, though. This could be a good week for him to break the cold streak. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (65.2%). Against two high, Mooney has had a 22.1% target share, 2.47 YPRR, and a 28.4% first-read share. Since Week 8, Minnesota has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Hockenson has been the TE22 in fantasy points per game since his return and hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 10. This week’s matchup is a good bounce-back opportunity. Since Week 6, Atlanta has utilized two high at the sixth-highest rate (54.4%). Against two high, Hockenson ranks second in TPRR (22%), third in first-read share (18.5%), and has 1.54 YPRR. Atlanta ranks 17th in yards per reception and 12th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Cousins has been playing terribly. The team has stated that he remains the starter, but it’s in play that if he comes out and stinks it up in any game moving forward, I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta yanks him and puts in Michael Penix. Outside of his games against the Bucs, Cousins hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 2 of the season. He hasn’t thrown for a touchdown since Week 9. I’m not plugging Cousins into any lineup this week. Especially not if your fantasy playoffs have already started. The risk is too great that he might not finish the game.
Last week, Jones saw his snaps cut some, with only 53% of the snaps having eight touches and 28 total yards. While the snap rate cut isn’t new, as he played 52-53% of the snaps in Weeks 10-11, it’s not something I’m overly concerned about moving forward. Jones is still clearly the best back on this roster. Jones is the RB20 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.2 touches and 92.6 total yards per game. Among 57 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Jones does look like he’s headed for another down week, though. Since Week 8, Atlanta has improved as a run defense, holding backs to the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Jones 56% zone).
Pitts is coming off a week where he played a season-low 41% of the snaps and saw only two targets. The sad thing is I don’t know if his usage gets any better this week. It’s another terrible schematic matchup for him. Minnesota has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (65.2%). Against two high, Pitts has disappeared with a 13.3% target share, 0.95 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. The Vikings have limited tight ends to the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the eighth-fewest yards per reception.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Bryce Young reclaimed his starting job, Carolina has ranked 12th in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate. Since Week 8, Philly has had the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Hubbard retained a stranglehold on the snaps last week while Jonathon Brooks was worked in more. He played 80% of the snaps, finishing with 12 touches and 43 total yards. Hubbard also had a 64% red zone snap rate last week. Hubbard is the RB15 in fantasy points per game this season, averaging 18.4 touches and 87.1 total yards. Among 57 qualifying backs, Hubbard ranks 12th in explosive run rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard should find success this week if his offensive line can continue to open up holes. Since Week 8, Philly has been more pliable on the ground, allowing the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, and the fourth-highest zone rushing success (Hubbard 67.7% zone).
With Dallas Goedert back on the shelf, Calcaterra reenters the streaming tight-end conversation for Week 14. During his four-game run earlier this season as the team’s starter, he had one TE1 weekly finish and one red zone target. During that span, he had an 82.5% route share, a 15.5% target share, 1.88 yards per route run, and a 12.7% first-read share. Calcaterra couldn’t ask for a better matchup this week. Carolina has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 14 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Young has looked like a serviceable NFL quarterback since Week 8 despite still only performing as the QB25 in fantasy points per game during that time. He did finish as the QB7 in fantasy last week, but he can thank a rushing score and the Buc’s pitiful pass defense for that. Since Week 8, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 25th in highly accurate throw rate. Young will have a tough time this week against an elite Philly pass defense. Since Week 8, they have allowed the fewest yards per attempt, the third-fewest passer rating, and the fourth-fewest CPOE and success rate per dropback.
Last week, Brooks played 21% of the snaps and had a 43% snap rate in the red zone. He finished with six touches and 41 total yards. Brooks has looked good so far with a 25% missed tackle rate, although his 1.63 yards after contact per attempt is passable, considering he’s only had eight carries. Brooks isn’t getting enough volume yet to be considered a weekly flex play, but he’s worth a hold. His role could continue to grow down the stretch as Carolina is in full eval mode to conclude the 2024 season.
Smith opened this week with a full practice (hamstring). This gives me hope that he’ll be back this week, but we need to see how he progresses through practice all week. Hamstrings can be problematic. I’ll update Smith’s status on Friday.
Since Week 8, with Bryce Young under center, Legette has had a 17.6% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 20.8% first-read share. He has been the WR48 in fantasy points per game during this stretch, eclipsing 13 PPR fantasy points twice. Since Week 7, Philly has held perimeter wide receivers to the lowest fantasy points per game and PPR points per target. Legette will be flex-worthy in the upcoming weeks, but Week 14 isn’t one of them.
Since his return to the huddle, Thielen has had a 17.3% target share, 2.33 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share. He has one red zone target over the last two games. He crushed as the WR5 in PPR scoring last week, but he unfortunately doesn’t get to face the Bucs’ pitiful secondary weekly. Sit Thielen this week against a tough Philly secondary that, since Week 7, has held slot receivers to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest PPR points per target.
GB vs. DET | NYJ vs. MIA | ATL vs. MIN | CAR vs. PHI | NO vs. NYG | JAC vs. TEN | LV vs. TB | CLE vs. PIT | SEA vs. ARI | BUF vs. LAR | CHI vs. SF | LAC vs. KC | CIN vs. DAL
