The NFL preseason is a wrap and with 53-man rosters being finalized, fantasy football draft season is in full swing. Who you decide to select in the first round will set the tone for your entire roster and that especially rings true for the for whoever has the No. 1 overall pick.
If you fall into that category, congratulations…and good luck. Because your decision right out the gate will make or break your season.
Picking at No. 1 can be a blessing or a curse depending on your perspective and how you approach constructing your roster for the year. The obvious positive is the fact that you’ll have the first crack at claiming literally any player on the board and you’ll have a bonafide superstar player right out the gate. However, chances are that your league does a snake draft format and you most likely won’t be picking again until the 20’s. Most of the other top options will be off the board by then and that puts extra pressure on your top selection to live up to preseason expectations.
Some fantasy veterans will opt to trade down in the first round for the purposes of building depth. Others will decide to just let it rip at No. 1 and let the chips fall where they may. If you belong to the latter group, we’ll go over some the top options to build your entire roster around. Let’s dive in.
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase is the consensus top player on the board in all scoring formats heading into the new year and it’s not a shock considering the absolute monster campaign that he just had. Mr. 7-Eleven (because he’s always f****** open) recorded just the fifth triple-crown season for a wide receiver since the NFL-AFL merger in 2024, leading the league with 127 receptions, 1,708 yards, and 17 touchdowns. He also blew away all other pass-catchers with a league-high 787 yards after catch and that made him a cheat code for both the Bengals and fantasy managers alike.
It’s no surprise that he’s going No. 1 most leagues given both his talent and the situation that he’s in heading into 2025. Considering that Cincinnati could once again have one of the worst defenses in the entire league this season, the Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase connection may once again have to put up big numbers out of sheer necessity to keep the team competitive. Aside from a hip injury in 2022, the wideout has managed to stay healthy throughout his five-year pro career and as long as he’s on the field, managers will get a return on investment when taking him high.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Having a new coaching staff that was actually willing to use him like a true workhorse back, Robinson took a major step forward in 2024 with 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground, also adding an additional 61 receptions for 431 yards and a score as a pass-catcher. He got one of the highest volume of carries in the league and made nearly every one of those touches count, boasting the highest success rate at 49.34% and was one of just three backs with at least 250 carries to finish the year with a positive rushing EPA. It was also extremely tough for opponents to stuff him behind the line as he also boasted a TFL rate of just 7.24%.
Robinson is still the centerpiece Atlanta offense even with growing hype surrounding Michael Penix Jr. and it’s no surprise that fantasy managers are bullish on the third-year back out of Texas. Unless the staff decides to somewhat lighten his workload by giving extra carries to Tyler Allgeier, we could see an even bigger year for him in fantasy.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
No offseason acquisition made more of an impact than Barkley last season and his historic campaign was a boon for both the eventual Super Bowl LIX champion Eagles and fantasy managers alike. He recorded the ninth 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history and that allowed him to be the only running back to average at least 20 fantasy points per game in all scoring formats. Similar to the aforementioned Robinson, the 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year was one of just three backs to successfully combine that large workload with extreme efficiency on the ground. Averaging 5.8 yards per carry, he boasted an explosive run rate of 12.46%, second only to Derrick Henry in that category.
Judging by current ADP trends, No. 1 pick holders are generally avoiding Barkley and with good reason. For starters, it’s fair to assume that he will not duplicate the historic season that he just had on the ground. Considering that he clocked nearly 500 touches in the regular season and playoffs combined, the Eagles will most likely want to preserve him for another deep postseason run by lessening his load. It should also be noted that the prior three NFL rushing champions (Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey) all had follow-up campaigns where they failed to crack 1,000 yards due to injury. Taking Saquon at No. 1 is tempting, but certainly comes with a ton of risk.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Gibbs showed exactly why the Lions “reached” for him as a first-round pick and was one of the deadliest offensive weapons in the entire league in 2024. His 1,412 rushing yards, 517 receiving yards, and a league-high 20 total touchdowns put him in a different stratosphere last season and that allowed him to finish as the No. 1 running back in PPR leagues with 362.9 total points. And he impressively pulled this off while sharing a backfield with David Montgomery, who himself finished 2024 as a top-20 fantasy RB despite missing three games.
Given his skills and involvement in virtually every facet of the Detroit offense, Gibbs does have a case for being a savvy No. 1 pick for managers, especially in PPR formats. However, it should be noted that his usage could be different with John Morton replacing Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator. And even though he was able to eat while sharing a backfield with another Pro-Bowl caliber back, Monty’s presence always presents a threat of his fantasy value being depressed.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson once again posted an outstanding season for the Vikings and would’ve easily been the No. 1 fantasy wideout in 2024 if his former LSU teammate Chase didn’t post a triple-crown year. 103 receptions, 1,533 yards, and 10 touchdowns were the numbers that he posted last season and once again showed off his game-breaking abilities with 14.9 yards per catch. He was also fourth in the league in target share at 29.79%, continuing to prove the “eff it, Justin’s down there somewhere” strategy being a successful strategy for whoever’s suiting up as Minnesota’s QB. Ask Sam Darnold and his new contract with the Seattle Seahawks.
Going for Jefferson at No. 1 wouldn’t be a huge reach, especially with Vikings No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison suspended for the first three games of the season. However, you should be cautious of him dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp, the same injury that sidelined him for seven games in 2023. And even though the “just throw it to Justin” strategy is a good one, it is still unclear how fast he can develop chemistry with pseudo-rookie QB J.J. McCarthy now starting in Minnesota.
Don’t overthink this. Cincinnati will once again have to air it out this season out of necessity and that makes Chase a safe choice at No. 1. However, if running back depth is a concern of yours and you want to lock in the best option available immediately, then you can’t go wrong with Robinson.
