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Mike Clay, ESPN Senior Writer
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 17, which kicks off Wednesday with a pair of Christmas Day games.
This column features score projections, Over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start moves, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
KC-PIT | BAL-HOU | SEA-CHI | LAC-NE | DEN-CIN | ARI-LAR | NYJ-BUF | GB-MIN
LV-NO | IND-NYG | CAR-TB | TEN-JAX | MIA-CLE | DAL-PHI | ATL-WAS | DET-SF
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Steelers 21
Lineup locks: George Pickens, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce
Hollywood Brown made his Chiefs debut in Week 16 and finished the game second on the team in targets with eight. That number came despite Brown playing only 19 snaps and running just 14 routes. The 27-year-old didn’t turn the usage into much (45 yards on five receptions) and, while his role is sure to progressively increase, he’ll need to fend off Worthy (55 snaps Saturday), Justin Watson (37), DeAndre Hopkins (32) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (27) for work. Pittsburgh has struggled against the perimeter this season, especially as of late, but Brown’s uncertain role makes him too risky to start with a fantasy championship on the line.
Over/under: 43.3 (11th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 57% (15th highest)
Projected score: Ravens 27, Texans 19
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, Zay Flowers
With Tank Dell sidelined, Dalton Schultz has an opportunity to rejoin the TE1 ranks. Schultz ran 30 routes Saturday, which ranked second on the team behind only Collins (37). Schultz’s heavy usage resulted in a strong 5-45-1 receiving line on eight targets and he has now produced 15-plus fantasy points in two of his past three outings. Schultz’s underwhelming season makes him risky, but it helps that Baltimore has allowed the eighth-most TE receptions and yards.
Over/under: 45.9 (6th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 77% (6th highest)
Projected score: Seahawks 21, Bears 20
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf
D’Andre Swift has fallen short of double-digit fantasy points in five straight games and in six of his past seven. The slump has come despite Swift remaining the clear lead back in Chicago. He has played at least 69% of offensive snaps in four straight and is averaging 15.0 touches per game during this stretch. Swift hasn’t found the end zone since Week 11 and has seen a dip in passing-game work (no games with at least five targets over his past seven outings after reaching that level four times during his first eight games). Swift is seeing enough work to warrant flex consideration, but the slump has erased him from “lineup lock” consideration.
Over/under: 41.2 (13th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 56% (16th highest)
Projected score: Chargers 24, Patriots 20
Lineup locks: Ladd McConkey
Kayshon Boutte went off with five receptions for 95 yards on seven targets (all career highs) and found the end zone during Sunday’s loss to Buffalo. Despite the career day, Boutte isn’t yet on the flex radar. The 2023 sixth-rounder has been nearly an every-down player since Week 6 (90% snap share), but his only other double-digit fantasy game was way back in Week 6, when he scored his only other TD. In the 10 games since Week 6, Boutte is averaging 5.1 targets, 39.7 yards and 8.2 fantasy points. He’s best left on benches or the waiver wire.
Over/under: 44.2 (10th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 62% (10th highest)
Projected score: Bengals 24, Broncos 22
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Courtland Sutton
With Jaleel McLaughlin sidelined last week, Javonte Williams (four carries and 12 targets on 32 snaps) paced the Denver backfield, with Audric Estime (nine carries on 13 snaps) and Blake Watson (four carries and two targets on 10 snaps) also involved. None of the backs managed a top-20 fantasy outing — and that includes Williams, who turned those 12 targets into only 29 yards. Estime found the end zone but wasn’t targeted at all and Watson was limited to 23 yards on five touches. Denver clearly stuck with a committee even without McLaughlin and we should expect the same moving forward. This is a situation to avoid, even in a plus-matchup against a struggling Bengals defense.
Over/under: 46.2 (5th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 57% (13th highest)
Projected score: Rams 25, Cardinals 24
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, James Conner, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Trey McBride
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been held below 9.0 fantasy points in three straight games and in nine out of 15 this season. He has seen a decent 22 targets across his past three outings, but hasn’t cleared four catches or 49 yards in any of them. The rookie leads the NFL in end zone targets (15), but an ugly 52% catch rate has led to extremely inconsistent production. Harrison is best viewed as a boom/bust WR3/flex against a Rams defense that has been better against receivers as of late.
Over/under: 49 (4th highest)
Win probability: Rams 57% (14th highest)
Projected score: Bills 31, Jets 21
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Breece Hall, James Cook, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Khalil Shakir
Dalton Kincaid is an enigma. The 2023 first-round pick is handling a generous 21% target share (seventh highest at his position) in a Buffalo offense averaging 3.7 touchdowns per game (second most). On the other hand, he has found the end zone only twice and has yet to clear either 53 yards or 13.1 fantasy points in any game. Kincaid’s 58% catch rate is last among 40 qualified tight ends and a steep drop from his strong 78% rate in 2023. Kincaid’s role is enough to keep him in the back-end TE1 mix, but the ongoing lack of production makes him a risky start.
Over/under: 52.8 (highest)
Win probability: Bills 83% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Packers 23, Vikings 21
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison
Sam Darnold sits QB8 in fantasy points this season, but he’ll be a risky start against a Packers defense that has allowed the fewest QB fantasy points. Darnold posted a solid 20.5 fantasy points against the Packers in Week 4, but he’s one of only four QBs who have reached 16.5 points against them this season. Darnold has posted five top-12 fantasy finishes in his past six outings, but he’ll have his hands full against a defense that sits top six in both sacks and INTs.
Over/under: 44.6 (8th highest)
Win probability: Packers 57% (12th highest)
Projected score: Raiders 21, Saints 16
Lineup locks: Brock Bowers
With Alvin Kamara sidelined on Monday night, Jordan Mims (four carries and eight targets on 23 snaps), Kendre Miller (eight carries and two targets on 21 snaps) and Jamaal Williams (three carries on 10 snaps) formed a committee in the New Orleans backfield. It’s worth noting that Miller started and played on the first four snaps (and 10 of the first 15) but barely played late in the blowout. Mims played on 12 straight snaps prior to Miller returning for the game’s final snap. Conditions will be much better this week at home against the Raiders (as opposed to playing at Green Bay), but assuming Kamara remains out, it appears all three backs will be a factor. Miller remains the preferred option of the three, but he’s no more than a risky flex.
Over/under: 36.6 (15th highest)
Win probability: Raiders 66% (8th highest)
Projected score: Colts 21, Giants 14
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Malik Nabers
Tyrone Tracy Jr. isn’t quite a “lineup lock,” but he’s certainly on the RB2 radar. The rookie has exactly 11 touches in three of his last four games, which isn’t much, but he’s also scored a touchdown in three of his last four outings and has 14-plus fantasy points in seven of his last 11 games. Tracy played on 60% of snaps on Sunday and has hit that mark in four straight and 10 of his last 11. Consider Tracy to be a fringe RB2 against a Colts defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards and eighth-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Over/under: 34.4 (16th highest)
Win probability: Colts 73% (7th highest)
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 19
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard, Mike Evans
Following a bit of a midseason slump, Mayfield has rebounded with three straight top-10 fantasy weeks. He’s up to 11 of those on the season, which trails only Lamar Jackson (12). Mayfield has thrown for 288-plus yards in each of his last three games and has nine passing scores during the span. For the season, he sits top five in pass completions, yards and TDs, as well as 11th in QB rushing yards. Fantasy’s QB6 belongs in lineups this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed the most passing TDs (28) and the fifth-most QB fantasy points this season.
Over/under: 49.8 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 85% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Titans 21
Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley
Chig Okonkwo is on a roll. After setting career-high marks in targets (10) and receptions (8) in Week 15, the third-year TE set new bests in targets (11), receptions (9), receiving yards (81) and fantasy points (19.1) last week. Okonkwo has now produced 13-plus fantasy points in three of his last five, though the exceptions were major duds (3.8 and 5.7) in Weeks 13-14. The recent boost in usage is enough to launch Okonkwo into the back-end TE1 discussion, especially against a Jaguars defense that has allowed seven TDs and the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Over/under: 44.5 (9th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 57% (11th highest)
Projected score: Dolphins 24, Browns 15
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, David Njoku
Jerome Ford stepped up in place of Nick Chubb (IR) on Sunday, producing 131 yards and a score on 16 touches. This, after he went for 104 yards and one score on nine touches in Week 15. The strong game helps solidify Ford as a viable flex, but we shouldn’t expect much more than that. Ford had a pair of 15-plus point games in place of Chubb during Weeks 1-5, but also maxed out at 10.0 points in the other three games during that span. Ford is a factor as a receiver and has run the ball well (5.5 YPC), but his rushing has been capped (no more than 12 carries in any game this season). Plus, he has a tougher matchup this week against a solid Miami defense.
Over/under: 38.5 (14th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 79% (4th highest)
Projected score: Eagles 27, Cowboys 15
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith
After producing 120-plus yards and 14-plus fantasy points in three consecutive games, Rico Dowdle came back down to earth with just 51 yards on 16 touches against the Buccaneers on Sunday. Dowdle played on 75% of snaps and has cleared 70% in four straight games. He’s also handled 16-plus touches in five straight outings. Dowdle’s workload should be safe this week, but the matchup is brutal, as the Eagles have allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points (and a league-low five TDs). No back has reached 21 fantasy points against them and only four have reached 15. Dallas backs totaled 8.8 points when these teams met in Week 10. Dowdle is best viewed as a low-ceiling flex option.
Over/under: 41.9 (12th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 88% (Highest)
Projected score: Commanders 25, Falcons 21
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Bijan Robinson, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Drake London
Michael Penix Jr. made his first NFL start on Sunday and completed 18-of-27 passes for 202 yards. He did not throw any TD passes but did get picked off once. He added three yards on four carries. Penix wasn’t asked to do a ton in the 34-7 blowout over the lowly Giants, but Atlanta continued to lean on some very run-heavy play calling. The team has had just one passing score over the last six games. Life will be tougher this week against a much-improved Washington defense. That unit has allowed the sixth-fewest WR fantasy points over their last eight games, which is why the likes of London and Darnell Mooney are ranked lower than usual. London is too good to bench, but he and Robinson are the only “lineup locks” in this Atlanta offense.
Over/under: 45.7 (7th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 65% (9th highest)
Projected score: Lions 29, 49ers 21
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Jahmyr Gibbs, Isaac Guerendo, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jameson Williams, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta
With Guerendo sidelined last week, Patrick Taylor Jr. was the 49ers’ clear lead back. He played on 79% of snaps, earning eight carries and five targets. Kyle Juszczyk (one carry and three targets on 22 snaps) was the only other running back to even see the field. Despite the big role, Taylor was unproductive, totaling just 25 yards on nine touches. Taylor’s nine touches were actually his most since a career-high 13 in Week 18 of his rookie season (back in 2021). That was also the last time he scored double-digit fantasy points in a game. Taylor will only be a flex option this week if Guerendo remains sidelined and, even then, there’s not a ton of upside against a Detroit defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points and the third-fewest RB yards.
Over/under: 50.9 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Lions 77% (5th highest)
