As we head into Week 14, the fantasy playoffs are officially within sight, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Week 13 brought us an exciting slate of games, made even better by the Thanksgiving holiday and the time spent enjoying football with family and friends. A heartfelt thank you goes out to everyone who takes the time to read this article each week—it’s a joy to break down these performances for you.
With that said, this past week saw Josh Allen further solidify his MVP case with yet another jaw-dropping performance, the Bears stumble in heartbreaking fashion with poor clock management in the waning moments of their game, and a thrilling shootout in Cincinnati that reminded us why we love football. With so much action behind us and more ahead, let’s dive into this week’s breakdown and get ready for the fantasy stretch run.
As we look ahead to Week 14, we’ll use key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR to identify players poised for positive or negative regression. By digging into the data, we’ll discover who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!
First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)
Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!
Overperformer: Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders)
1D/RR: 0.026
Result: 1 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.3 (half-PPR)
Tre Tucker made the most of his single reception, turning it into a 58-yard touchdown and salvaging a respectable fantasy day—though almost no one had him in their lineup. The Raiders, as they often do, played the Chiefs down to the wire in a thrilling Black Friday showdown, only to fall short after yet another controversial call in Kansas City’s favor. While Tucker’s big play showcased his explosiveness, he remains far off the fantasy radar for now. However, with the Raiders possibly targeting a franchise quarterback in the upcoming draft, his future could hold more intrigue as part of a revamped offense.
Underperformer: Jauan Jennings (San Francisco 49ers)
1D/RR: 0.136
Result: 3 receptions, 56 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.1 (half-PPR)
The snowy conditions in Buffalo didn’t do Jauan Jennings any favors, as he struggled to make an impact during the 49ers’ 27-6 loss on Sunday Night Football. The team is reeling after losing Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason to injuries, leaving their season hanging by a thread. With Jennings now one of the last reliable playmakers standing, he may be a crucial part of San Francisco’s attempt to claw their way to an NFC West title. Despite the tough outing, Jennings has been consistent throughout the year and is still earning targets. For fantasy managers, he remains a viable flex option as the 49ers lean on him in the weeks to come.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!
Overperformer: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (New Orleans Saints)
TPRR: 0.094
Result: 2 receptions, 36 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.6 (half-PPR)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to live up to his reputation as a boom-or-bust deep threat, delivering another explosive play touchdown for the Saints this week. His connection with Derek Carr remains frustratingly inconsistent, but Carr’s willingness to take at least one deep shot to MVS every game keeps him on the flex radar for desperate fantasy managers. With the slew of Week 14 byes, Valdes-Scantling could be a viable option if you’re chasing upside. Just know that starting him comes with a rollercoaster of risk—and potential reward.
Underperformer: Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills)
TPRR: 0.412
Result: 4 receptions, 30 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.0 (half-PPR)
Khalil Shakir’s production fell short of his impressive 0.412 TPRR this week, a performance hindered by Buffalo’s snowy Sunday night clash with the 49ers. While Shakir saw a strong target share, the game script didn’t favor heavy passing as the Bills cruised to a dominant win. Shakir has been a reliable floor option this season, consistently delivering solid performances. However, his lack of explosive ceiling games has been a letdown for managers hoping for bigger outputs. With Buffalo clicking on all cylinders, Shakir remains a steady option, but those looking for game-winning upside may need to look elsewhere.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
Overperformer: Alec Pierce (Indianapolis Colts)
YPRR: 0.762
Result: 2 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.6 (half-PPR)
Alec Pierce continues to flash his connection with Anthony Richardson, overperforming his 0.762 YPRR this week in dramatic fashion. Pierce was quiet for nearly the entire game but came alive when it mattered most, hauling in a clutch touchdown on fourth down during the Colts’ game-winning drive. While it’s tough to trust Pierce as a consistent fantasy option, his knack for late-game heroics with Richardson gives him some “I’m desperate” upside. If you’re in a deep league and need a high-risk/high-reward play, Pierce might just be worth a dart throw.
Underperformer: A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)
YPRR: 3.0
Result: 5 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.1 (half-PPR)
A.J. Brown underperformed his impressive 3.0 YPRR this week, a rare occurrence for the Eagles’ star wideout. With the team firing on all cylinders and dominating their competition, these quieter outings are almost inevitable due to the sheer number of playmakers in Philadelphia’s offense. The return of DeVonta Smith adds another layer of competition for targets, raising the possibility of a similar scenario during the fantasy playoffs. However, there’s no question about Brown’s game-breaking potential. You’re not benching him under any circumstances—you’re simply banking on those explosive performances showing up when they matter most.
Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points
As we wrap up this week’s article, it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on the season so far and give thanks—not just for the amazing performances and unforgettable moments on the field, but also for the fantasy community that makes this game so special. Whether you’ve had a dominant run, or you’re fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot, it’s the shared love of the game that keeps us all coming back.
With Week 14 here, we’re making some adjustments to the Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to ensure its accuracy as the stakes grow higher. Players who haven’t played at least eight games will now be excluded from calculations to avoid skewing the metrics. It’s all about providing the clearest picture as we head into the most important stretch of the season.
Good luck in your matchups this week, and here’s to an exciting push toward the fantasy playoffs!
