Brian at our Penn State sister site Black Shoe Diaries was kind enough to do a Q&A exchange with me in advance of today’s Big Ten Championship game.
Find my answers to Brian’s questions here.
ATQ: To start things off let’s maybe get a big picture assessment of the season for Penn State. What is your assessment of how the team has performed this season?
Brian: James Franklin and his quarterback Drew Allar have used the term “resilient” repeatedly over the course of the past few weeks. I’ll use the same term. To be honest, I’ve seen flashes of “elite” (looking ahead to the next question), but I’ve also watched them for 12 games and never felt like this team has played a truly complete game. I did one of these Q and A’s with Washington’s site last month and said I have sort of given up on waiting for Penn State to put it all together this year. So, I think it says a lot about the coaching staff, the team’s on-field leadership, and the overall depth of talent when I say this team hasn’t played to its ceiling and they’re still a lock to make the playoffs.
I had a preseason prediction of 10-2, assuming the yearly loss to Ohio State and figuring they’d trip up in a tough road environment along the way. They trailed at the half at USC, at Wisconsin, and at Minnesota. But, in each of those games, they dug deep and earned road wins. None of those games were particularly pretty. But they were tough and different players stepped up in all of them. So, yes, I’ll go back and say that it’s a more resilient team than Penn State has had in the past.
ATQ: From afar Penn State has been seen as a great team but not able to push through into the elite category and once again Penn State has gone undefeated against the non-Ohio State portion of its schedule. Two questions:
1) What do you think it is that has made Penn State so consistent in recent years, and
2) What is the biggest reason they haven’t been able to push through to get that big signature win in recent years? Is there a clear answer all arrows are pointing to, or has it been more nuanced?
Brian: Oh boy, how much time do you have for this one?
First off, it’s kind of fun to explain this one to a conference newcomer who probably does not have hatred for Penn State/Franklin, at least not yet. Anyway, the reason that Penn State is so consistent is that James Franklin is actually a really good football coach. Trust me, he has flaws and I think it’s fair to question what the heck happens when it’s Ohio State across the sideline. But, he recruits well. He hires great assistants – even when his coordinators move on to be head coaches. He has a great strength program. He’s upgraded facilities. He’s taken a Penn State program that was behind in many ways – and one that was still stricken with sanctions from the Sandusky scandal – and pushed it into this century. Franklin gets an inordinate amount of hate on the national level and I do have my theories as to why, but the truth is that he’s gotten Penn State to the point where they separated themselves from the rest of the old Big Ten…as in they are actually in the national conversation (aside from Michigan and Ohio State).
So about those two other schools. It’s hard to ignore the fact that they’ve been operating at their highest levels in their storied histories for the past decade…and Penn State’s been in the same division with them. Penn State did break through, winning the Big Ten in 2016 with a flawed, yet explosive team. However, a couple September losses left them out of the then four-team playoff. Since then, it’s been one frustrating season after another…and I would tie a lot of it to overall program depth. In 2017, Penn State was still really thin on the offensive line and it showed up when they blew a 21-3 lead in Columbus. In fact, the offensive and defensive line depth is finally where I feel Penn State can consistently stand toe-to-toe with anyone in the country (although that’s going to be tested moving forward because of injuries). It’s hard to point to exactly one or two things for why they haven’t broken through. It’s a combination of things not limited to overall program depth, missing out on the top, top level recruits – and usually losing those guys to Ohio State or Michigan, some downright bad luck (see the goal line interception in this year’s Ohio State game). This fact has been thrown around a lot and it is true: Penn State has never made the college football playoff. However, if the current format had been in place for the past decade, this team would have gone in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2022, and 2023…and with an outside shot of sliding in back in 2018. The whole perception of the program, and Franklin, changes with that on the resume. And again, remember, Penn State hasn’t lost a regular season game to a team not named Michigan or Ohio State since 2021.
Last thing I’d say about any of this and this is something we discuss a lot on our site and even our commenters debate us on this: the goal posts are constantly moving for success and big games with Franklin. I’m not going to defend the record against Michigan and, especially, Ohio State. But I am going to defend this national narrative that Franklin has “never won a big game”. He’s won a pair of New Year’s Six Bowl games, including the Rose Bowl. He won the Big Ten title. Penn State seems to be on Desmond Howard’s “Upset” watch every single week…and Penn State just wins those games. But then it’s “but he can’t beat Ohio State”. We joke at our site that Penn State could easily win a national title some day and there will immediately be the “yea, but they didn’t X, Y, Z” in the hours thereafter.
ATQ: Drew Allar has seen big increases in his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating this season as compared to last. What are the biggest reasons for his improvement this year?
Brian: A lot of the credit will go to new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, but I’ll also give credit to Allar’s own progression as a passer. It seems as though Allar’s biggest motivation last season was to never make a mistake and he wasn’t willing to trust his arm and take shots down the field. Kotelnicki has schemed Allar some easy throws – usually to tight end Tyler Warren – to up the completion percentage. But, Allar has also been willing to test the back end of defenses more this season and that is even with a group of wide receivers that are Penn State’s weakest position group. It should be noted, too, that Allar has dropped weight and that he’s more mobile. He’s not going to be confused for a dual-threat quarterback, but he’s been able to keep plays alive and his eyes downfield, which was most on display as Penn State drove the field to tie the game late at USC back in October.
ATQ: Penn State is slowly becoming a pass rusher U with Micah Parsons, Chop Robinson, and now Abdul Carter. How has Penn State been able to develop so many elite edge rushing talents, and how does Abdul Carter compare to those guys wrecking the league on Sundays?
Brian: Carter is what we imagined Micah Parsons being back in 2020 before Covid-19 messed up that entire Big Ten season and Parsons opted out. Carter spent his first two years at linebacker, switching to defensive end in the spring with an eye toward his NFL future. To be honest, Carter is just now starting to realize that full potential at the position and the stats are now coming. On Saturday, he became the first Penn State individual to record 10 sacks in a season in nearly a decade. He’s still a work in progress, but he’s an All-American work in progress. Robinson was better against the run, but Carter has been disruptive throughout the season and complements other all-conference level defensive linemen: DT Zane Durant and former five-star defensive end recruit Dani Dennis-Sutton.
ATQ: Looking forward to the matchup between Penn State and Oregon what is the area of the game/match-up that gives you the most confidence that Penn State can pull out a win and what is the area of the game/match-up that you are most concerned about?
Brian: First off, there are more feelings of concern than feelings of confidence. So, I’ll start with those. I worry about Penn State’s offensive line, which just lost its starting right tackle to a season-ending injury, holding up against Oregon. Penn State wants to use its complementary running backs and controlled passing game to eat up clock – something they did really well early against USC and Ohio State. But, even on Saturday, Penn State had trouble running between the tackles against Maryland and I don’t think star running back Nicholas Singleton is going to be able to get to the edge in the same way against Oregon’s defense. My other big area of concern is Penn State’s defensive backs holding up in man coverage against Oregon’s receivers. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen trusts those guys and against most of the conference, they’ve held up. But, there were leaks against Ohio State and USC, and even recently against Minnesota. In a dome, on a fast track, I worry about Oregon scheming some deep shots against those guys much like Mississippi did in last year’s Peach Bowl victory.
At the same time, I also have confidence in that defensive group. They’ve been good, especially in the second half. They haven’t allowed a third quarter touchdown all season and have only allowed 15 points total in that period this season. So, I do think that Penn State can limit Oregon’s scoring opportunities and give themselves a chance at pulling the upset. Oh, obligatory reference to Tyler Warren again. He’s one of the country’s best football players and Penn State will find a way to have him make some plays, which he has done all year against the toughest competition.
ATQ: Do you have a score prediction for Saturday night?
Brian: To be completely honest, I’m still just sitting here shocked that Penn State is even in this game. All last week, I was thinking about what to write to fill a few weeks before Penn State played its first playoff game ever. This is so much like 2016 when Penn State snuck into the Big Ten title game with help from Ohio State against Michigan that time and then won the whole thing.
The biggest difference between that year and this year is that it’s the No. 1 ranked team in the country waiting on the other side. I think Penn State is a battle-tested program with high-ranking recruits, good coaching, and some playmakers on both sides that can make a difference. I just think Oregon has more of those playmakers and it shows up on Saturday night, especially with Penn State batting some key injuries (All-American safety out, star offensive tackle out, rotational pieces on the defensive line out, leading wide receiver questionable).
Oregon 27, Penn State 17
Thanks Again Brian, looking forward to tonight’s game, especially if that score comes true.
