Good Morning FootClan and Happy Holidays to you!
We hope Santa was good to you this year, and a big shoutout to Netflix for a glitch-free Christmas filled with family and football. With three games already complete, we’ll look to address three QBs (ranked outside the Ballers’ top 12) who hold QB1 and DFS upside in Week 17.
With no new names to add, we’re sitting still at 39 QB1 performances through Week 16 of the 2024 season. With just two weeks remaining, is there any chance to reach the 46 QB1 performances in 2023?
Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, CJ Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Malik Willis, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes, Will Levis, Cooper Rush, Bryce Young, Mac Jones
Be sure to check the Week 17 QB rankings before kickoff, and as a reminder, the Ultimate DFS Pass is now 50% off, which is something we can all be thankful for! Now, let’s get down to business.
Where are all the Justin Herbert haters these days?
- “This team is in a rebuild.”
- “He’s lost all his weapons.”
- “He’s a volume-based QB.”
- “Jim Harbaugh doesn’t throw the ball.”
Technically, all these things are true. This team is in a rebuild. They did turn over the entire coaching staff. He did lose Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler. And Jim Harbaugh would certainly prefer to dominate in the trenches.
However, Justin Herbert is just different. And that is why—against all odds—he continues to cement his name into NFL history.
Justin Herbert has surpassed 20,000 career passing yards, becoming the 5th fastest and 3rd youngest QB to reach the milestone. #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/Ysao1YENwN
— ًBoltUpYo (@BoltUpYo) December 15, 2024
Since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers have leaned into Herbert as their leader, resulting in the QB10 finish over that timeframe. This week, the Chargers travel to New England to take on a Patriots team that has lost five straight games and currently holds the number-two overall pick in the 2025 draft. While the Patriots have nothing to play for, the Chargers should enter this game focused, with “win and in” playoff implications on the line.
Let’s be clear that the Patriots’ secondary—led by stand-out sophomore Christian Gonzalez—is not their main issue.
#Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez since Week 10:
• 83.9 PFF Grade (1st in the NFL)
• 8 Catches Allowed
• 74 Yards Allowed
• 1 Pass Break Up
• 1 InterceptionElite. pic.twitter.com/bVAdPZCkos
— Carlos Talks Pats (@LosTalksPats) December 10, 2024
In fact, despite what most may assume, they come into the week ranking 13th in PPG to opposing QBs, and Gonzalez (PFF’s 11th-ranked CB) specifically has shut down many of the league’s elite stars. The issue this week is that Herbert’s favorite WR (Ladd McConkey) mostly lines up in the slot, where Gonzalez has only spent approximately 7% of snaps this season. Assuming the Patriots maintain this standard, I’d temper my expectations on Quentin Johnston and/or Joshua Palmer this week—but for what it’s worth, PFF has Stone Smartt as the third-ranked TE in his matchup against S Kyle Dugger.
Where the Patriots fall flat is in their defensive line play, with PFF’s OL/DL model projecting the Chargers as heavy favorites in both pass and rushing metrics. These metrics assume Herbert should feel comfortable all day in the pocket, and even if his WRs are well covered, he’ll have plenty of room to run and build on his average of five rush attempts/game over the past nine weeks.
Justin Herbert since Week 7
⚡ 95.0 PFF Grade (1st)
⚡ 13 Big Time Throws (1st)
⚡ 0 Turnover Worthy Plays pic.twitter.com/X887lHns8x— PFF (@PFF) November 11, 2024
We likely won’t know the status of JK Dobbins (hamstring) until game day, however, Gus Edwards has already been ruled out, leaving a chance that sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal will lead the backfield in touches this week. While I’m expecting Dobbins to make his return, he has a lengthy injury history and still hasn’t played in over a month. I’d expect Harbaugh and Greg Roman to limit his touches, and potentially draw up a few more screen passes to get their skill players the ball in space.
The Patriots rank 21st in yards allowed/game, 24th in points allowed/game, and 30th in defensive EPA per play. These are all encouraging numbers if you’re a Charger fan, and with a team-implied total of 24 (ninth), I like Herbert’s odds of finishing in low-end QB1 territory, hopefully leading you to a championship.
We are so blessed to get to root for Justin Herbert the next decade+ pic.twitter.com/H9j7qXSvgi
— ♠️ (@FeelLikeSpade) December 24, 2024
Matthew Stafford was a letdown (for fantasy purposes) last week, but he’s not the first QB to struggle on the East Coast in December, and I’m not afraid to go right back to the well this week. After an ugly Seahawks win last night, the Rams now need a wild sequence of events to take the division, however, it all starts with a home win against Arizona.
And that all starts with Puka Nacua.
It’s physically impossible for Puka Nacua to not do something cool pic.twitter.com/FdbLvsaoqJ
— Jackson Payne (@jackson5payne) December 13, 2024
Puka is PFF’s second-ranked overall matchup this week, and based on these matchups, I’ll have him in plenty of DFS lineups and am expecting him to build on an already impressive average of 9.2 targets/game. While Cooper Kupp‘s struggles may continue against SCB Garrett Williams (PFF’s eighth-ranked CB), Puka could be a slate-breaker in championship week.
PFF’s OL/DL model has the Rams ranked fourth overall in both passing and rushing mismatches, assuming once again that Stafford should have a clean pocket to throw from. The Cardinals’ defense has faced a plethora of injuries this season, which won’t help them against a star-studded offense and (finally) healthy offensive line in L.A.
MATTHEW STAFFORD TO DEMARCUS ROBINSON ONE-HANDED TD TO WIN THE GAME FOR THE @RAMSNFL! pic.twitter.com/xqFG6xQ4eS
— NFL (@NFL) November 4, 2024
The Cardinals will look to play spoiler, but with a team-implied total of 27 (third) for the Rams, I’m banking on Stafford to hit the over on his 1.5 passing TD prop. There’s always a chance Kyren Williams steals the show (and touchdowns) based on game script, but if I’m taking a shot in the QB2 dark, the safest bet is to chase the highest point totals.
Plus, Stafford is just a good dude. I’m always rooting for him.
Heartwarming: Matthew Stafford surprised three young boys who had lost their father before Christmas, giving them presents and playing Madden with them.
A memory these kids will never forget.
— Dante (@dantetranno1) December 26, 2024
The Dolphins will need some help this weekend to keep their playoff hopes alive, but as of now, they’ve still got everything to play for. This week, they’ll travel to Cleveland in a last-ditch effort for a playoff run.
NFL leaders in completion percentage:
1. Tua Tagovailoa (72.9)
2. Jared Goff (71.4)
3. Baker Mayfield (70.9)Our star. pic.twitter.com/s2yVW7RRmX
— Dolphin Nation (@Dolphin_Nation) December 24, 2024
This matchup comes down to the stars aligning over a perfect fantasy game script. The Browns excel in stopping the run but rank in the bottom half of the league in most passing metrics. The Dolphins, on the other hand, struggle to run the ball and excel in the passing game.
Over the past five weeks, the Browns’ secondary ranks 20th (or worse) in EPA per play allowed to WRs, TEs, and RBs, while Miami ranks just 24th in rush yards/game, but 12th in pass yards/game. In that same timeframe, Tua has ranked third in pass attempts, 12th in completion rate, and first in average time to throw.
Week 17 QB Matchups To Exploit
SMASH 🔨
🔥Baker Mayfield @ CAR
🔥Tua Tagovailoa @ CLE
🔥Jared Goff @ SF
🔥Anthony Richardson @ NYGLower Expectations
❄️Cooper Rush @ PHI
❄️Geno Smith @ CHIDice Roll (
🎲Mason Rudolph @ JAC
🎲Michael Penix Jr @ WAS
🎲Drake Maye v LAC https://t.co/siYaa3lVtc pic.twitter.com/Ekbnwn9b1u— Dynasty Dad (@DynastyDadFF) December 27, 2024
With Jaylen Waddle presumably out, we can likely expect a condensed target share to the usual suspects of Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and Devon Achane. Jonnu is currently ranked second in PFF’s TE matchups this week and should be a strong play once again against the Browns, who rank 24th in PPG to opposing TEs and 29th against WRs.
While the temperature doesn’t appear to be a concern, there is rain in the forecast, so if you’re a “Tua can’t play in bad weather” conspiracy theorist, I completely understand if you choose to look elsewhere. With that said, the Dolphins have a team-implied total of 23 (16th), so despite their tag as 6.5-point favorites, I’m expecting Mike McDaniel to play to their strengths, which is an offense that revolves around Tua.
The Jonnu Smith year 8 breakout season has been something to behold pic.twitter.com/1nnpXax9Oa
— Football Digest (@FoootballDigest) December 15, 2024
Thank you, as always, for being here!
Best of luck in your fantasy playoffs this week!