Here we are, Footclan—the final week of the fantasy football regular season. For many of you, it’s do-or-die time. Whether you’re clawing for a playoff spot, fighting to hold onto your seeding, or aiming to lock down that coveted first-round bye, Week 14 is as critical as it gets. And as if the stakes weren’t high enough, we’re dealing with the chaos of six teams on bye during the most crucial week of the fantasy season. That means no Lamar, Henry, Nico, ARich, Daniels, or McLaurin to name a few. Your depth is about to be tested like never before, and your start/sit decisions could very well be the difference between glory and heartbreak.
To help sort through the madness, I fired up the Fantasy Footballers’ Start/Sit Tool to see what the FootClan’s buzzing about. After digging into matchups, stats, and enough data to make my head spin, I’m ready to help you crush these decisions. This week isn’t just another hurdle—it’s the launchpad for your championship run. Let’s make sure Week 14 is remembered as the week you took control, not the one that got away. Buckle up—we’re going to the PLAYOFFS! – Jim Mora voice
First question: Who is Isaac Guerendo? Yes, he’s the RB you spent what you had left of your FAAB on, but is the fourth-round rookie any good and can I trust him in my fantasy lineup? Guerendo has quietly stepped up in spots this season, notably in Week 8 against Dallas. He turned 14 carries into 85 yards and a touchdown after Jordan Mason exited with an injury, and in Week 6 vs. Seattle, he ripped off 99 yards on 10 carries with just a 26% snap share. I went back and watched every carry from Guerendo this season and what stands out the most is his speed. When he hits a hole his burst to get to the first down or end zone is insane.
Small sample size alert BUT among all RBs with 40+ carries, Isaac Guerendo ranks:
• 4th in YPC
• 2nd in Explosive Rush Rate
• 11th in MTF/AttSince Week 8, CHI ranks 30th in rushing yards per game allowed
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) December 4, 2024
His NFL combine metrics back it up with a 4.33 40-yard dash (99th percentile), 125.7 Speed Score (100th), and 135.1 Burst Score (98th). Now, with McCaffrey and Mason sidelined, Guerendo gets the keys to the coveted Shanahan RB room against a Bears defense that ranks 24th in rushing yards per game allowed.
Mike’s guy Rico Dowdle came through in a big way last week—21.3 PPR points, for those keeping score at home.
(yes this is yet another Rico Dowdle tweet) https://t.co/Iypy8n3r6o pic.twitter.com/ojioKalm7R
— Mike Wright (@FFHitman) November 29, 2024
Now, before we get too hyped, let’s remember who he balled out against—the Giants. It’s worth noting this was Dowdle’s second straight week with 15+ carries and a 60%+ snap rate—both season highs. That’s a trend we love to see. This week, the Cowboys face the Bengals, a team that’s given up 34+ points in six games this season. Not good. They’re also second worst in total points allowed and just lost Logan Wilson for the year. Even worse.
This should be a smash spot for Dowdle, right? I’m not so convinced. Vegas set the over/under at 49.5, and let’s be real—most of those points will likely come from the Bengals’ offense. Cincinnati’s defense is awful, especially against the pass as they rank sixth-highest passing yards and third-highest receiving TDs allowed per game. The Cowboys should air it out (especially in a negative game script) if they want to try to keep up. I’d adjust your expectations of a big week from Dowdle accordingly.
Verdict: That was a long-winded way to tell you to start Isaac Guerendo.
Ooh, battle of the rookie RBs! I’ve already broken down why I like Guerendo this week, but let’s talk about his competition: Tyrone Tracy Jr. He’s Mike’s RB Start of the Week:
“Since Week 5, Tracy has been the RB16 right behind Alvin Kamara, with four top-10 finishes in that span. New Orleans’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL, tied for last in yards per carry allowed, 30th in expected points added per rush attempt, and 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.”
Sounds great, right? But before we get too excited, let’s look at the workload. Over the last two games, Tracy’s only seen nine carries each week, with Devin Singletary cutting into his touches. The bright side? Tracy’s a beast in the passing game, racking up 70 and 65 receiving yards in those matchups. While the limited rushing volume is scary, his receiving production gives him a solid floor. With Nabers on the injury report, there won’t be many mouths to feed.
Verdict: Isaac Guerendo, but it’s insanely close. Tracy has competition with Singletary and he’s another fumble away from losing opportunities.
The Cleveland Browns play the Pittsburgh Steelers in a rematch of the snow game just two weeks prior. We’ve seen what each of these quarterbacks has done against the other’s defense, so let’s break it down:
- Russell Wilson completed 21 of 28 passes for 270 yards and a TD
- Jameis Winston completed 18 of 27 passes for 219 yards, an INT, and a fumble
Russ had a better game, but was it just because of the elements? Winston threw for almost 500 yards against the Broncos last week so how do we bench him? Well, Russ threw for 414 yards himself last week. Both QBs have shown they can air it out. Here are my concerns for both quarterbacks: Pickens picked up a hamstring injury and was added to the injury report on Friday. Not good. The Steelers have Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and Mike Williams looking to stand in if Pickens can’t go—not exactly the best of the best there. Austin has a connection with Russ, but he’s banged up as well and with his small size can be taken out of a game at any moment. Mike Williams hasn’t done much since his one TD pass in his first week as a Steeler. Can he step up this week? Cleveland would be a good matchup to do it against. According to the Strength of Schedule Tool, the Browns are the eighth-easiest matchup against QBs. Speaking of matchups, my concern for Winston is just that. Traveling to Pittsburgh, playing in a hostile environment, and going against a team that hasn’t given up much to anyone is a tough sell. The Steelers are in fact the toughest matchup for QBs according to the Strength of Schedule Tool. Guess what? They get Alex Highsmith back this week. It’s going to be lights out and turnover city.
Verdict: It’s so hard to bench Winston after that insane performance last week. I’m playing Winston if I got Josh Jacobs-ed and need the ceiling. Monitor injury reports on Pickens; if he doesn’t play I’m going with Winston as well. If Pickens is available this week, I’ll cook with Russ. Despite Winston’s upside, Russ gets the nod—better matchup, no weather issues, home environment, and Pittsburgh needs the win to stay atop the AFC North.
Another one of Jason’s Starts of the Week: Jauan Jennings. Believe it or not, the 49ers are technically still clinging to their playoff hopes in the NFC—even if it’s a long shot. Step one? They need to start winning. At home against the Bears would be a good place to start. Jauan Jennings has been pretty meh for fantasy over the past two weeks with Purdy’s injury and playing in a blizzard, but Jason pointed out this week on the show that we shouldn’t forget what he did the weeks prior.
“He’s put up an impressive 2.71 yards per route run—outpacing even Justin Jefferson this season and his 28.5% first-read target share ranks him among the elite WR1s in the league.”
This week, the 49ers take on a Bears defense that’s been consistently tough against the position all season. According to the Strength of Schedule Tool, it’s the fourth-hardest matchup for receivers. I discussed in the Isaac Guerendo start/sit how the Bears are a run-funnel defense. They’ve allowed an average of 146.7 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. I think this week is Guerendo’s week to shine. I also expect more designed runs from Deebo Samuel with the absences of CMC and Mason. Brock Purdy is playing through a shoulder injury himself which also draws concern.
Speaking of injury, Brian Thomas Jr. loses his starting QB again after Trevor Lawrence was placed on IR after a brutal hit last weekend against the Texans. Mac Jones will start for the Jags instead. Last week Jones had a solid performance, throwing for 235 yards and two TDs. I don’t see Jones as a huge downgrade from Lawrence. Yes, Jones did miss BTJ on a wide-open 69-yard touchdown, but he continued to go back to him. BTJ is currently the WR13 on the year. The matchup isn’t very good for him this week, however. The Titans are eighth in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Brian Thomas Jr. needs just 47 receiving yards a game to finish with over 1k yards in his rookie season!#BTJ #DUUUVAL #Jaguars pic.twitter.com/rQgoxSEN4I
— TheJagBros (@TheJagBros) December 6, 2024
Verdict: Both receivers are facing tough matchups and dealing with injury-plagued teams, but in situations like this, I lean on skill. In your rookie year on an offense that’s only won two games, BTJ being the WR13 is no small feat. There’s a reason he was a first-round pick. He needs just 47 yards per game to hit 1,000 yards in his rookie season, and I’m confident the Jags will do everything in their power to make sure he reaches that milestone. Sorry, Jason, I’m leaning toward BTJ this week.
The finish line is in sight, Footclan, but now’s the time to dig deep. The chaos of Week 14 isn’t here to break you—it’s here to define you. Trust the work you’ve put in all season, lean on the tools and resources at your disposal, and make those clutch calls that push you into the playoffs. Let’s crush it this week and keep that trophy in our sights. Don’t hesitate to hit me up on X if you’ve got more start/sit questions or just want to talk ball. Good luck, Footclan—you’ve got this!
