-
Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior Writer
Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense. Don’t be afraid. Take a deep breath. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You would not believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you are (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don’t be afraid … to play TE Jonnu Smith at flex
We get many questions in our Sunday morning pregame chat sessions (11 a.m ET-1 p.m. ET), and quite a few of them feature tight ends, presumably for one particular lineup spot. Perhaps that should not always be the case, however. Fantasy managers need to be more open-minded about adding and activating tight ends in the flex position, and Smith is a perfect example. Unlike the other TE stars, such as Las Vegas Raiders rookie Brock Bowers and Arizona Cardinals veteran Trey McBride, Smith went undrafted in most fantasy leagues. Even today, Smith remains available in more than 20% of ESPN standard leagues.
Three flex-eligible players entered Week 14 having scored 20 or more PPR points in Weeks 11, 12 and 13. Just three. Smith is the surprise among them, in a group with Miami Dolphins teammate De’Von Achane and Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs. It makes sense that some of the Smith investors may already roster one of the top tight ends, and they may not realize Smith is a better choice than many RB/WR choices — some of the top picks this season — for your flex this week. Analyzing the entirety of Smith’s season in comparison to, say, Chicago Bears RB D’Andre Swift or Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf wastes time. What have you done for us lately?
Still, look at the top tight ends and compare them to the top wide receivers and you may be surprised. Bowers has as many PPR points as Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb. OK, so you may believe Lamb isn’t having a great season, but only four wide receivers have more PPR points! That means Bowers would be a WR1 — and quite easily. He is 15th among RBs, WRs and TEs this season. McBride, San Francisco 49ers star George Kittle, Kansas City Chiefs star Travis Kelce and Smith are all among the top-21 receivers in season PPR scoring and top 50 for flex choices. Pretty incredible for Smith, since he didn’t do much over the first, oh, 10 weeks.
ESPN Fantasy doesn’t project Smith to score 20 PPR points for a fourth consecutive week, but this analyst’s SuperFlex rankings have him ahead of Swift and Metcalf, Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III, Los Angeles Chargers WR Ladd McConkey, Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard, Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and a handful of quarterbacks, too. Smith is also, notably, ahead of teammate Tyreek Hill, who has scored touchdowns in three of four games but still has fewer points than Smith in that span. For the season, it is Hill with 149.1 PPR points and Smith 146.7 PPR points. Playing Smith over Hill clearly is reasonable.
Remember, there are six NFL teams on their bye this week, so it isn’t all about Smith. Other tight ends, such as the Cleveland Browns‘ David Njoku, Minnesota Vikings‘ T.J. Hockenson and Jacksonville Jaguars‘ Evan Engram may be worthy flex options, too. It is OK to double up at tight end. It may be your best option!
Don’t be afraid … to ignore full-season PPR points when choosing lineups
A recent commenter on the rest-of-season fantasy rankings was none too satisfied — lol, commenters rarely are pleased; the happy people remain silent — about McConkey earning only WR3/4 status. McConkey entered Week 13 as the No. 18 PPR WR in ESPN standard scoring, and today he sits 16th. While I acknowledge McConkey deserved higher placement, how much higher? McConkey’s production is up lately, perhaps warranting WR2 notice, but even today, coming off 20.7 PPR points on Sunday at Atlanta, McConkey ranks tied for 29th at 13.6 PPR points per game (though four WRs ahead of him are on IR). He has played all the games and served his bye week. We should applaud this, but not overrate it.
McConkey is surely a success story for a passing offense that wasn’t expected to thrive, and really, it is a bit complicated in evaluating QB Justin Herbert for fantasy. He isn’t throwing interceptions, but 14 other QBs boast more PPR points. By December (and really, long before that), we all should have ceased looking at full-season total numbers as a tool for lineup decisions and instead study recent numbers and averages more. Herbert scored 7.98 PPR points last week at Atlanta. He scored 11.16 PPR points earlier this season against this week’s foe, the Chiefs.
Back to McConkey: You would not start him over Houston Texans star Nico Collins or the Philadelphia Eagles‘ A.J. Brown, though he has outscored them both. On a per-game basis, however, it is not close. Those veterans are more productive. We shouldn’t make playoff lineup decisions on prior scoring anyway. Look ahead, consider context. Nobody wants to play Falcons QB Kirk Cousins this week. With six teams on bye, some may need to.
Colleague Matt Bowen offers his excellent guide to the fantasy playoffs this week with myriad helpful hints, as I aim to remain more player-focused, but don’t force McConkey into lineups over the Cincinnati Bengals‘ Tee Higgins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ Mike Evans or either of the Los Angeles Rams duo just because he has outscored them. Sure, McConkey is valuable, and he may outscore those options and many more this week, but it really is all about this pending week. McConkey did move up in this week’s rest-of-season rankings, but mainly because his recent play (17 PPR points per game over his last three) warranted it. Comments presented respectfully, of course, are always welcome.
1:17
Can Nick Westbrook-Ikhine be a fantasy playoff difference maker?
Stephania Bell breaks down why she sees positive opportunities for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Don’t be afraid … to take another look at the Tennessee Titans passing game
Most fantasy analysts will tell you Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, with eight touchdown receptions among his 20 receptions over eight games cannot possibly sustain the production. I am no different. Well, kind of. Touchdowns are fickle and unpredictable, and what Westbrook-Ikhine is achieving is historic, but who is to say his run of awesomeness ends this week? After all, the Titans face the Jaguars on Sunday. We should recognize who Tennessee has on its remaining schedule and that sophomore QB Will Levis is playing better lately, as well.
Let’s start with this: nobody has been able to catch one TD pass per game on so few receptions over a full season. Receivers — and running backs — need volume to succeed, but there is always that 1%, and what Westbrook-Ikhine is doing falls in that group. Then again, he did see eight targets in Week 13, though he hauled in only three of them. That’s not great, but we’ve been through this with his higher-profile WR teammate, Calvin Ridley. Ridley has caught less than half of his 87 targets this season. It is hard to believe, but it’s true.
In this offense, with Levis being an inaccurate QB, we’re not saying this works, but we did rank Westbrook-Ikhine among the top-40 wide receivers this week — and not just because six teams are on bye. He has scored double-digit PPR points in five of six games. We ranked New Orleans Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, too. He’s doing the same thing, with four TD catches among seven receptions over three games. It shouldn’t continue, but Valdes-Scantling faces the New York Giants. Perhaps it’s a hyphenation thing! Play Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba this week (well, every week)!
Levis has completed 75% of his passes in two of the past four games, or since he returned from a shoulder injury. In the other two games, he hasn’t. Still, this is progress. Ridley is the better play than Westbrook-Ikhine, because he is better, and he usually sees considerably more volume. That doesn’t mean we can ignore Westbrook-Ikhine, though.
Don’t be afraid … to trust San Francisco RB Isaac Guerendo
Christian McCaffrey investors can’t be pleased that the fellow who was likely the first pick in just about every fantasy draft is done for the season, but at least we have some clarity. McCaffrey played four games. He didn’t score a touchdown. He has a knee injury. Drop him. Drop backup Jordan Mason, too. His high-ankle sprain removes him for the rest of the regular season, too. This is clarity. We know rookie Guerendo is the starter, and we know he has averaged 5.9 yards per rush on his 42 attempts this season.
We also know that the Bears, this week’s foe, permit the 11th-most PPR points to running backs, but I am not sure it matters. The 49ers want to run the ball, and they have done it quite well this season, with numerous players. The 49ers are seventh in the NFL at 139.6 rushing yards per game. I don’t think they want QB Brock Purdy, with a sore shoulder, throwing 40 times per game, especially against the Bears, who permit the second-least PPR points to QBs. Guerendo will get every chance to exceed 20 rushing attempts and do great things with them.
Fantasy managers tend to change their lineup strategy and decision-making for their playoffs. Why is that? “Because I gotta win this one,” they say. Well, you gotta win in Week 3 and 7, too, to make Week 14 relevant, but whatevs. The point is, play your best options. Guerendo is ranked quite nicely for this week, especially in my rankings. I ranked him ahead of some universally rostered running backs, too. The only time one should alter their lineup strategy is in a two-week scenario, but even then, whether you are down 20 points entering the second week or up 20, don’t overthink things. Play the best options.
